本研究旨在透過差異中之差異法（Difference-in-Differences, DiD）及其延伸模型，量化評估《臺中都會區鐵路高架捷運化計畫》中，臺中車站改建對舊市區再發展之實質影響。隨著永續都市發展與既有市區再發展議題受到重視，鐵路立體化與車站改建逐漸成為改善都市阻隔、提升交通可及性及帶動站區再發展的重要空間治理手段。過去文獻多以質性探討新建交通建設對都市發展變遷與車站改建更新與地價之關聯，較少同時檢視不同都市再發展面向及其時間與空間差異。因此，本研究將都市再發展具體操作化為「人口」、「商業」與「土地利用」三個面向，並進一步納入前後站差異、政策階段、空間外溢及距離異質性，以檢視車站改建所產生之差異化影響。
在研究設計上，本研究以臺中舊市區里別為空間單元，建立2006年至2024年的長期縱橫資料。從各面向變化建構分析框架：首先以基礎DiD模型確立政策總體因果關係；接著運用三重差分模型（DDD）解析前站與後站因鐵路阻隔消除後所產生的異質性發展差異；最後建構空間看似無關迴歸的雙重差分模型（Spatial SUR DiD），聯立估算各面向之直接效應與空間外溢（間接效應），並檢驗效果是否隨距離之衰減特徵。
實證結果顯示，臺中車站改建對都市再發展之影響並非各面向同步發生。商業面向的政策反應最早且最為明顯，其中餐飲業於車站核心地區呈現較穩定的正向效果；人口效果相對較弱且具有時間遲滯，後期主要於核心地區出現較明顯的聚集；土地利用則於研究期間內未呈現顯著的政策效果。此結果顯示，在臺中車站個案中，車站改建所帶來的都市再發展較先反映於商業活動與產業配置調整，而人口與實質土地利用之改變則需要較長時間。
在空間差異方面，鐵路立體化後前後站並未全面趨於均衡，其中後站在製造業與專業、科學及技術服務業呈現較不利的相對變化，顯示實體阻隔的解除尚未同步轉化為都市功能與產業發展的全面收斂。在時間上，政策效果呈現「干擾—重組—再集中」之階段性過程：建設期間外圍部分商業活動受到較明顯衝擊；臺中車站改建啟用後，核心地區餐飲業成長，而中距離帶人口與部分產業仍處於調整；新建通勤車站通車後，餐飲業正向效果由核心向中距離帶延伸，核心人口逐漸出現聚集，惟外圍部分零售與知識型產業仍呈負向變化。空間模型亦顯示，商業活動具有較明顯的跨里別外溢效果，而人口影響則主要集中於直接受影響地區；不同距離帶之政策效果亦未呈現單調遞減，而形成核心集中、中距調整與外圍流失的差異化空間型態。
透過臺中車站個案研究，本研究不僅補足了過去多重視靜態平均效應的文獻缺口，也為未來都市與交通偕同規劃提供實證反思，鐵路立體化對都市再發展的本質受既有空間基盤制約產生選擇性重組，而非均質性都市縫合，其本身無法直接促成區域均衡發展，必須搭配精細的土地使用分區管制與配套引導，方能有效消弭空間發展差異並促進舊市區的實質發展。

This study examines how the renovation of Taichung Station under the Taichung Metropolitan Railway Elevation Project affected redevelopment in the surrounding old urban district. Using a village-level panel dataset for 2006–2024, urban redevelopment is evaluated through population, commercial activities, and land use. Event-study, difference-in-differences (DiD), triple-difference (DDD), and Spatial SUR-DiD models are applied to estimate average policy effects, front–back station differences, temporal dynamics, and spatial spillovers.

The results show uneven effects across dimensions. Commercial activities responded earlier and more strongly, particularly food and beverage businesses near the station core. Population effects were weaker and delayed, while land-use changes were not statistically significant. Railway elevation also did not produce generalized convergence between the front- and back-station areas; manufacturing and professional, scientific, and technical services showed relatively weaker changes in the back-station area. Policy effects varied across implementation stages, following a broad process of disturbance, restructuring, and reconcentration. Spatially, commercial spillovers were stronger than population spillovers, and effects did not decay monotonically with distance, instead forming a pattern of core concentration, middle-zone adjustment, and outer-area decline. Overall, the findings suggest that station renovation generates selective and spatially heterogeneous urban restructuring rather than uniform urban integration. Complementary land-use guidance and station-area planning are therefore needed to translate improved accessibility into broader redevelopment benefits.

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