波候(Wave Climate)是指一段時間內特定海洋區域的波高、週期、方向和頻率等統計特徵，近數十年來氣候變遷加劇，台灣周遭海域波候是否有所變化值得探討。本研究採用 WAVEWATCH III 波浪模式(簡稱 WW3)，並使用深水物理套組 ST6 參數，推算 1975 年至 2022 年共計 48 年間在台灣周遭海域的波浪變化，其中的風場輸入係比較了 WRF、ERA5 與 CCMP 三種風場，再和實測風速比較，並考慮時間和空間解析度後，決定同時使用 WRF (2006 至 2022 年)和 ERA5 (1975 至 2005 年)風場為波浪模式之驅動力。
波浪模擬結果以現場浮標觀測資料進行驗證，結果顯示以 WRF 和 ERA5 風場為輸入之波浪模擬結果相近且與資料浮標實測結果一致，使用前述兩個風場來模擬波高的平均絕對誤差分別為 0.33 和 0.41 公尺、相關係數分別為 0.92 和 0.87，對於長期波浪模擬，此結果令人滿意。
本研究分別探討台灣海峽、台灣東部海域以及北南海海域三個區位的波候變化，結果顯示：台灣海峽及北南海海域之平均波高每年增加 0.11 公分，台灣東部海域每年增加 0.32 公分左右；根據每十年的平均波高變化率顯示，氣候變遷對海況的影響隨時間愈來愈顯著，變化率逐年增加。本文進一步分析各季節的波候變化，結果顯示過去五十年來，冬季的波候變化較大，前述三海域的冬季平均波高每年增加 0.4 至 0.5公分；然而，在台灣海峽的夏季平均波高有下降的趨勢，這是否與颱風生成的變化有關值得後續進一步探討。另外，本文還探討波候變化是否有空間差異性，結果顯示不論在台灣海峽、台灣東部海域或北南海海域，代表惡劣海況的大波高範圍有由南向北且逐漸靠近台灣的趨勢。以上的波浪模擬分析結果對瞭解台灣周遭海域過去五十年來的海況長期變化趨勢提供了科學的佐證。

This study collects the open wind dataset from the public and evaluates its applicability to Taiwan waters with buoy observed data. The WAVEWATCH III wave model and the source term ST6 would be applied to calculate the sea conditions in the Taiwan waters and North of South China Sea in recent 50 years. Analysis through the trend of significant wave height in each sea area over the past 50 years is conducted by using linear regression. Among the above calculations, the annual average wave height has increased 0.11 cm per year in the Taiwan Strait and the N.SCS with 0.32 cm per year in eastern Taiwan water. This paper uses the change rate of average wave height per decade to explore the impact of climate change in various sea areas in the past 50 years. It is found that the impact of climate change in each sea area has become more and more obvious along with time. However, Taiwan has usually been hit by typhoons in summer and affected by northeast monsoon in winter. Therefore, this study further analyzed the wave climate changes in different seasons. The results show that wave climate in winter has been affected the most by climate change. The increase of average wave height in various sea areas can reach 0.4 cm to 0.5 cm during winter time. Due to climate change, typhoons gradually move to higher latitudes, and the average wave height in summer in the Taiwan Strait tends to decrease. In addition to the growth trend of wave heights, the distribution of wave heights may also vary with time because of climate change. In this study, the top 10% of the annual average wave heights are adopted to analyze the changes in the distribution of larger wave heights in various sea areas. The results show that no matter the Taiwan Strait, the eastern waters of Taiwan or the North-South China Sea, the areas with relatively high wave heights all move from south to north and gradually approach Taiwan.

吳柏緯(2020)，「船難事件發生時之海象分析」，國立成功大學水利及海洋工程研究所碩士論文
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