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研究生: 簡祥軒
Chien, Hsiang-Hsuan
論文名稱: 防禦型資產配置策略於新興市場之應用與實證研究
An Empirical Study on the Application of Defensive Asset Allocation Strategy in Emerging Markets
指導教授: 顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2025
畢業學年度: 113
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 40
中文關鍵詞: 防禦型資產配置警惕型資產配置動量投資新興市場
外文關鍵詞: Defensive Asset Allocation, Vigilante Asset Allocation, Momentum Investment, Emerging Markets
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  • 本研究之目的在於實際以防禦型資產配置DAA (Defensive Asset Allocation)之模型應用在新興市場中,將西元2009年6月1日開始到西元2025年1月1日這段時間內,所選出來的新興市場標的,以月報酬率為基準點分析,並與標的指數Vanguard FTSE新興市場ETF (VWO-Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF)來進行比較。實證之結果為防禦型資產配置策略,儘管在報酬率上輸給了大盤指數,但最大回撤與波動度也同樣小於大盤指數。顯示若從追求獲利的角度來看,此一策略或許並不適宜應用在新興市場,但在降低風險方面仍有一定的成效。
      本文前段我們先簡單介紹了本次研究的主體市場-新興市場(Emerging Markets),其在比較廣泛的定義中,大概由哪些地區與哪些國家所構成。本研究並選出了六檔新興市場股市ETF作為獲取股市報酬的攻擊型資產池、兩檔獲取新興市場債市報酬的ETF作為防禦型資產池,與另外兩檔做為警示功用的保護型資產池ETF,共計有十檔ETF做為樣本,並詳述本研究選擇這些標的之依據及原因。
      除了原始的DAA策略外,本研究也提供了使用均權投資以及DAA的變形版策略DAA-G4與DAA-T2的各項實證資料。在本研究選定的期間內,最原始的DAA策略相較DAA-G4或DAA-T2,雖然得到了更好的報酬率,但在考量交易成本以後,僅有DAA與DAA-T2策略的定期定額報酬率,勝過了均權投資與本研究選定的大盤指數VWO,單筆投資的報酬率則是三者皆輸給均權投資與VWO。

    This study aims to apply the Defensive Asset Allocation (DAA) model to emerging markets. Using monthly returns as the basis for analysis, the study examines selected emerging market assets over the period from June 1, 2009, to January 1, 2025, and compares the results with the benchmark index, the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO – Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF). The empirical results show that although the Defensive Asset Allocation strategy underperformed the benchmark index regarding returns, it also exhibited lower maximum drawdown and volatility than the benchmark. This indicates that while the strategy may not be suitable for emerging markets from a profit-seeking perspective, it still demonstrates effectiveness in risk reduction.
    In addition to the original DAA strategy, this study provides empirical data for equal-weighted investment and two modified versions of the DAA strategy: DAA-G4 and DAA-T2. During the selected research period, although the original DAA strategy achieved better returns compared to DAA-G4 and DAA-T2, after accounting for transaction costs, only the dollar-cost averaging returns of the DAA and DAA-T2 strategies outperformed those of the equal-weighted investment and the benchmark index VWO selected in this study. In contrast, in terms of lump-sum investment returns, all three strategies underperformed compared to equal-weighted investment and VWO.

    中文摘要 i Abstract ii 誌謝 vi 目錄 vii 表目錄 ix 圖目錄 x 第壹章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景與動機 1 第二節 研究目的 2 第三節 研究貢獻 2 第貳章 文獻回顧 4 第一節 資產配置 4 第二節 動量策略 5 第三節 防禦型資產配置模型 7 第參章 研究方法 9 第一節 各資產池之標的選取 9 第二節 樣本選取期間 11 第三節 警惕型資產配置策略 12 第四節 防禦型資產配置策略 13 第肆章 實證分析 16 第一節 資料與實證績效指標 16 第二節 實證績效結果 16 第三節 交易成本 18 第四節 定期定額實證績效結果 20 第伍章 研究結論與建議 23 第一節 研究結論 23 第二節 研究限制及建議 23 參考文獻 26

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