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研究生： 王錫澤
Wang, Hsi-tse
論文名稱： 產品技術取代與市場競爭模式之研究-以全球CRT、LCD 及PDP TV 銷售為例
The Research of Technology Replacement and Market Competition Model – Case of Global Shipment for CRT,LCD and PDP TV
指導教授： 耿伯文
學位類別： 博士
Doctor
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年： 2009
畢業學年度： 98
語文別： 中文
論文頁數： 100
中文關鍵詞： 液晶電視 、電漿電視 、技術取代 、市場潛量 、Lotka-Volterra方程式 、均衡分析
外文關鍵詞： LCD TV, PDP TV, Technological Replacement, Market Potential, Lotka-Volterra equations, Equilibrium analysis
相關次數： 點閱：195  下載：5 
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    • 傳統 CRT TV 因尺寸的加大會導致過於笨重的缺點，以及數位電視興起而造成電視市場的重大變革，因此符合此需求之薄型平面電視便應運而生，尤其是面板廠商大規模的投入電漿與液晶電視的產出，更造成薄型平面電視蓬勃發展，然而此現象卻同時引發了電漿與液晶電視兩種電視技術彼此爭奪市場佔有率的競爭局面。
    本研究以擴散模式為基礎，並結合人口成長的變動會影響潛在的使用者人數，進而會影響市場潛量的假設來建構產品擴散取代之預測模式，並應用於CRT 及LCD TV 電視市場產品的擴散取代效應進行分析。在探討PDP與LCD TV 兩者之間的動態競爭關係，採用競爭模式擴散系統-Lotka-Volterra 競爭模式，並藉由Lyapunov 函數進行均衡點之穩定性分析探討。結果顯示，對於首次購買的消費者而言，CRT TV 已非首選，而是轉而購買LCD TV。然而對於已持有CRT TV 的消費者，LCD TV 尚未造成促使消費者立即取代CRT TV 的動機。在產品的競爭方面，LCD TV是扮演獵物的角色，而PDP TV 則是扮演掠食者的角色。均衡分析方面，PDP TV 不會從市場消失，而是和LCD TV 維持均衡的關係。

    The size of CRT TV has always been limited by their bulk. However, the introduction of flat plane display TV has led to much larger screens, new rounds of technological innovation, large-scale investment and an increasing share of the consumer market. Moreover, this development has spurred competition for market share between LCD TV and PDP TV. On the basis of diffusion model and the premise of population growth on variable market potential, this study establishes a model of forecast for technology replacement. This proposed model is further applied to investigate the replacement of CRT and LCD TV with empirical analysis. This study further intends to investigate the dynamic competitive relationship between PDP and LCD TV by means of the quarterly shipment of TV. The Lotka-Volterra competition diffusion model has been adopted to conduct the empirical analysis, with the Lyapunov function used to carry out equilibrium and stability analysis.
    Those who purchase TVs for the first time are apt to be more attractive to LCD TV than CRT TV. As for those who have already owned a CRT TV, the intention is not strong enough to allure them to replace current CRT TV with a new LCD TV. In the competitive relationship we can regard the LCD TV as a prey and the PDP TV as the predator. With respect to the equilibrium and stability analysis, PDP TV will not disappear from the market, but will instead reach stable equilibrium with LCD TV.

    中文摘要 ………………………………………………………i 英文摘要………………………………………………………ii 致謝 …………………………………………………………iii 目錄 …………………………………………………………iv 表目錄 ………………………………………………………vii 圖目錄………………………………………………………viii 第一章 緒論………………………………………………………1 1.1 研究背景與動機………………………………………………1 1.2 研究目的………………………………………………………4 1.3 研究範圍與限制………………………………………………5 1.4 研究方法與流程………………………………………………6 第二章 文獻探討…………………………………………………9 2.1 各類型電視技術的發展與比較………………………………9 2.1.1 CRT TV 產業的特性與未來展望…………………………10 2.1.2 LCD TV 產業的特性與未來展望…………………………13 2.1.3 PDP TV 產業的特性與未來展望…………………………20 2.1.4 CRT、LCD及PDP TV之技術探討…………………………22 2.2 Choice-based 擴散模式……………………………………26 2.3 Lotka-Volterra 方程式……………………………………30 2.4 平衡點及穩定分析…………………………………………33 第三章 產品技術取代與競爭模式………………………………38 3.1 技術取代模式………………………………………………39 3.2 競爭模式分析………………………………………………44 3.2.1 Lotka-Volterra 競爭模式………………………………44 3.2.2 均衡點及穩定性…………………………………………46 3.3 模式參數估計方式…………………………………………47 第四章 CRT與LCD TV技術取代之研究分析……………………49 4.1 CRT TV與LCD TV取代現象分析……………………………51 4.2 電視市場潛量………………………………………………59 第五章 LCD與PDP TV競爭模式與均衡探討……………………64 5.1 PDP TV及LCD TV之間競爭…………………………………64 5.2 均衡分析 ……………………………………………………72 5.3 40至49吋LCD TV供給與需求分析…………………………76 第六章 結論與未來研究方向……………………………………80 6.1 研究結論……………………………………………………81 6.2 電視產業之管理意涵………………………………………82 6.3 未來研究之方向及建議……………………………………84 參考文獻 ………………………………………………………87 附錄一全球 LCD 面板生產線概況……………………………93 附錄二全球 PDP 面板生產線概況……………………………95 附錄三2004Q1-2007Q3之30至34吋CRT及LCD TV每季銷售量…97 附錄四2004Q1-2007Q3之35至39吋CRT及LCD TV每季銷售量…98 附錄五2004Q1-2007Q3之30至39吋PDP及LCD TV每季銷售量…99 附錄六2004Q1-2007Q3之40至49吋PDP及LCD TV每季銷售量...100 表 目 錄 表 2-1 台日韓TFT LCD產業特性及競爭優勢…………………19 表 2-2 顯示技術發展趨勢指標.………………………………23 表 2-3 顯示技術性能比較.……………………………………26 表 4-1 玻璃基板尺寸與切割片數…………………………….51 表 4-2 30至34吋CRT TV及LCD TV參數值………………………52 表 4-3 35至39吋CRT TV及LCD TV參數值………………………53 表 4-4 各國數位電視開播及類比訊號中止時間表……………54 表 4-5 變動及固定市場潛量預測評量…………………………55 表 5-1 30至39吋PDP TV及LCD TV參數值………………………65 表 5-2 40至49吋PDP TV及LCD TV參數值………………………65 表 5-3 不同之符號ij c 所呈現不同競爭關係………………69 表 5-4 PDP及LCD TV產品特徵…………………………………70 表 5-5 30至39吋可能之均衡點估計……………………………73 表 5-6 40至49吋可能之均衡點估計……………………………73 表 5-7 全球TFT-LCD七代廠每月最大投入量……………………78 圖 目 錄 圖 1-1 研究架構與流程……………………………………………8 圖 2-1 電視機產品種類族群………………………………………10 圖 2-2 CRT產品結構圖………………………………………………11 圖 2-3 TFT-LCD產品結構圖…………………………………………14 圖 2-4 PDP 產品結構圖……………………………………………21 圖 4-1 六代線及七代線累積次世代生產線擴建數目……………50 圖 4-2 30至34吋及35至39吋LCD TV平均銷售價格 ………………56 圖 4-3 30至34吋CRT及LCD TV每季銷售量實際值及預測值………57 圖 4-4 35至39吋CRT及LCD TV每季銷售量實際值及預測值………58 圖 4-5 六代廠累積最大投入產能……………………………………59 圖 4-6 30至34吋TV變動及固定市場潛量預測比較 ………………60 圖 4-7 35至39吋TV變動及固定市場潛量預測比較 ………………60 圖 4-8 30至34吋TV累積銷售量實際值、預測值及市場潛量………61 圖 4-9 35至39吋TV累積銷售量實際值、預測值及市場潛量………62 圖 4-10 LCD TV各生產尺寸占有率…………………………………63 圖 5-1 30至39吋PDP及LCD TV每季銷售量實際值及預測值………67 圖 5-2 40至49吋PDP及LCD TV每季銷售量實際值及預測值………68 圖 5-3 PDP及LCD TV平均銷售價格…………………………………72 圖 5-4 漸進穩定平衡狀態軌跡……………………………………75 圖 5-5 液晶電視供給/需求概觀……………………………………79

    中文部分：
    1. 王昭琪 (2002) FTF-LCD 產業之競合與經營型態分析，工業技術研究
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    3. 金美敬、王心婷(2004) 中日韓之次世代TFT LCD 發展策略與競爭力
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