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研究生: 何偉弘
Ho, Wei-Hung
論文名稱: 總體經濟變數與國家股價指數間互動關係之探討- 東南亞國協五國
The Fundamental Dynamic Interactions among Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Indexes: ASEAN-5 Countries
指導教授: 李宏志
Li, Hung-Chih
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 72
外文關鍵詞: ASEAN, Granger causality, Macroeconomic variables, Stock market, Cointegration
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  • This study seeks to investigate the degree of long-term and short-term co-movements in the stock markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Through our findings, we hope to gain a better understanding of the long-term and short-term market dynamics in this South East Asian region. We observe a long-run relationship among the stock markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Thus, five cointegrated markets reveal long-term market inefficiency in the region. The numbers of common cycles are investigated in these markets and each stock index series is decomposed into its trend and cyclical components. Next, we look at the influence of macroeconomic variables on the stock prices of ASEAN-5 countries. We observe both long-term and short- term relationships between stock indices and their macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, we consider the impact from foreign stock markets, and the result reveals that foreign stock markets have a greater influence on domestic stock price than that of domestic macroeconomic variables. The result may imply that when policymakers seek to pursue an independent macroeconomic policy, they need to consider not only macroeconomic factors, but also the impact of market integration.

    Contents Abstract I Contents III Tables IV Figures V Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter 2 Literature Review 5 2.1 Long-term and short-term relationships 5 2.2 Dynamic interactions between stock indices and macroeconomic variables 7 Chapter 3 Methodology 11 3.1 Vector Autoregressive Model 11 3.2 Johansen’s Cointegration Test 12 3.3 A Test for Common Cycle 15 3.4 Granger Causality Test 17 Chapter 4 Empirical Results 20 4.1 Data 20 4.2 Long-term and short-term relationships among the five stock markets 21 4.3 Dynamic interactions between stock indices and macroeconomic variables 22 4.4 Dynamic interactions between stock indices and macroeconomic variables including the impact from other stock markets 26 4.5 Market integration before and after the Asian Financial Crisis 29 Chapter 5 Conclusion 31 References 34 Tables 39 Figures 64

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