隨著全球氣候變遷加劇，台灣面臨嚴峻的水資源管理挑戰。氣候變遷引發的極端天氣事件，如長期乾旱、豪雨和頻繁颱風，導致水資源分布不均，威脅農業、工業和民生用水的安全。現有水庫難以應對降雨時間和強度的變化，造成供水不穩定。興建海岸水庫被視為潛在的解決方案，因其具備能量消耗低、溫室氣體排放少、建造和維護成本低、生態衝擊小等優勢，並可有效儲存雨水以應對乾旱期的用水需求。本研究旨在評估東港溪流域及林邊溪流域在大鵬灣興建海岸水庫的可行性。採用HEC-HMS降雨逕流模式和SRH-2D水理輸砂模式，對基期與未來時期的逕流量與輸砂量進行模擬，進行趨勢分析、變化分析及可靠度分析。具體目標包括分析逕流量與輸砂量的長期變化趨勢、比較不同時期的變化情形，並評估海岸水庫供水的穩定性和可靠性。
研究結果顯示，HEC-HMS和SRH-2D模式的驗證結果準確可靠。趨勢分析表明，東港溪和林邊溪流域在不同氣候變遷情境下的逕流量和輸砂量變化顯著，特別是在SSP2-4.5情境下未來短期和中期的增長趨勢明顯。水庫容量和可靠出水量的評估顯示，不同氣候情境下最大所需庫容有所變化，需水量的可靠度在高排放情境下波動較大。綜合評估表明，大鵬灣海岸水庫在中等排放情境下具備較高的可行性和可靠性，而在高排放情境下需採取更加靈活的管理措施以應對未來可能的挑戰。
本研究結果為未來水資源管理和海岸水庫規劃提供了科學依據，建議決策者在規劃和管理大鵬灣海岸水庫時需考慮不同氣候情境下的長期不確定性，並採取適應性管理措施，以確保未來水資源的穩定供應。

As global climate change intensifies, Taiwan faces severe challenges in water resource management due to extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts, heavy rainfall, and frequent typhoons. Such events lead to uneven water distribution and threaten agricultural, industrial, and domestic water security. To cope with these variations, coastal reservoirs are considered a potential solution due to their low energy consumption, low greenhouse gas emissions, lower construction and maintenance costs, low ecological impact, and effective rainwater storage capabilities. In this study, the feasibility of using Dapeng Bay as a coastal reservoir was investigated by assessing the water resources of the Donggang River Basin and the Linbian River Basin. Using the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model and the SRH-2D hydrological and sediment transport model, simulations of runoff and sediment transport were conducted for both the baseline and future periods. The objectives include analyzing long-term trends, comparing changes across periods, and assessing the stability and reliability of the coastal reservoir's water supply. Results indicate that the HEC-HMS and SRH-2D models are accurate and reliable. Significant variations in runoff and sediment transport were observed under different climate change scenarios, particularly showing an increase in the short to medium term under the SSP2-4.5 scenario. Evaluations of reservoir capacity and water output reliability demonstrate that maximum required reservoir capacity changes with greater fluctuations in water demand reliability under high emission scenarios. In conclusion, the Dapeng Bay coastal reservoir is feasible and reliable under medium emission scenarios, while high emission scenarios require flexible management strategies. These findings provide a scientific basis for future water resource management and coastal reservoir planning, recommending that policymakers consider long-term uncertainties under various climate scenarios and adopt adaptive measures to ensure stable water supply.

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