| 研究生: |
莊竣崴 Chuang, Chun-Wei |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
臺灣周圍及Niño海域海面溫度與臺灣月雨量相關性分析 Exploring the Relationships between Near-Taiwan and Niño Regions Sea Surface Temperature and Monthly Rainfall in Taiwan |
| 指導教授: |
蕭政宗
Shiau, Jenq-Tzong |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 水利及海洋工程學系 Department of Hydraulic & Ocean Engineering |
| 論文出版年: | 2022 |
| 畢業學年度: | 110 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 63 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 海面溫度 、雨量 、相關係數 、典型相關分析 、遙相關 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | sea surface temperature, rainfall, correlation coefficient, canonical correlation analysis, remote correlation |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:56 下載:10 |
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臺灣地區的水資源條件特殊,由於河川多坡陡流急、降雨時空分布不均,造成年均雨量遠高於世界平均的臺灣,人均可分配到的雨量卻遠低於世界平均值。近年來又因極端氣候加劇,對水資源狀況的掌握以及管理的重要性日益增加。本研究透過分析臺灣周圍海域及Niño Regions海域的海洋表面溫度(sea surface temperature, SST)與雨量的相關性,作為研究臺灣地區雨量特性以及作為雨量預測的參考。本研究蒐集了臺灣地區共二十個雨量站的月雨量資料,與臺灣周圍海域及Niño Regions區域的月均海面溫度。本研究使用皮爾森積差相關係數(Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient)和典型相關分析(Canonical Correlation Analysis, CCA)分析其間的關係。
本研究結果揭露了兩區域SST與臺灣月雨量之間的關係。在相關係數分析中,臺灣周圍海域SST(local sea surface temperature, LSST )在無時間稽延下多呈現負相關,而隨著稽延時間增加,相關性則陸續轉為正相關;Niño Regions SST中除了Niño4之外也有相同的變化趨勢。CCA分析結果中,LSST在各時間稽延下典型相關係數約為0.8,略大於Niño Regions SST的0.7。Niño Regions SST在兩種方法都有出現相關性隨稽延時間增加而增加的現象,顯示出Niño Regions對大約半年之後的臺灣月雨量具有影響。
water resource conditions in Taiwan are unique. Due to the steep slopes of rivers and the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, the average annual rainfall in Taiwan is much higher than the world average, but the amount of rainfall per capita is much lower than the world average. In recent years, due to the intensification of extreme climate, the importance of water resources management and control has been increasing. This study analyzes the correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall in the surrounding waters of Taiwan and Niño Regions. In this study, the monthly rainfall data from 20 rainfall stations in Taiwan and the monthly mean sea surface temperature in the surrounding waters of Taiwan and Niño Regions were collected. The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) were used to analyze the relationship between them.
The results of this study reveal the relationship between SST and monthly rainfall in Taiwan. In the correlation coefficient analysis, the SST (local sea surface temperature, LSST) around Taiwan show a negative correlation without lag-time, and the correlation become positive with increasing lag-time. the same trend was observed for Niño Regions SST except for Niño4. The canonical correlation coefficient of LSST for each lag-time is 0.8, which is slightly larger than that of Niño Regions SST of 0.7. The correlation of Niño Regions SST increases with the increasing lag-time in both methods, indicating that Niño Regions have an influence on the monthly rainfall in Taiwan after about half a year.
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