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研究生: 席拉德
Sillah, Abdou
論文名稱: Investigating the Impact of Various Climate Change Scenarios on the Pavement Life Cycle Cost
Investigating the Impact of Various Climate Change Scenarios on the Pavement Life Cycle Cost
指導教授: 楊士賢
Yang, Shih-Hsien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 90
外文關鍵詞: Pavement service life, Future climate scenarios, EICM, Life cycle costs
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  • Traditionally pavement performance (deterioration) prediction is more focused on impact of vehicular traffic loading and assumes future climate from past climate. This assumption may no longer hold due to the climate change events reported by climate scientists in the last century which if neglected may lead to premature pavement structural and functional failure and increased future operations and maintenance costs from the agency’s stand point. In this study the impact of various climate changes on the pavement service life and life cycle costs has been investigated in northern and southern regions of Taiwan. The historical climate data was collected from two central weather bureaus (CWB) one located in Taipei and the other in Tainan. The ground water depth information was also obtained from the department of water resources. Two most widely pavement performance models, the American Association of State Highway Officials (AASHTO, 1993) and the new Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) were used in the framework developed for this study to predict the service life of a typical pavement section for city and province roads under Taiwan’s historical and various future climate change scenarios. The results of the study showed that the pavement tested for the historical and the various future climates have significantly reduced in service life and increased in life cycle costs relative to the baseline case. Thus the framework developed in this study can be used by the highway agencies to adapt climate change in the conventional planning, design, construction and maintenance of new and existing pavements.

    ABSTRACT I DEDICATION II ACKNOWLEDGEMENT III TABLE OF CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES VII LIST OF FIGURES VIII 1 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background 1 1.2 Research Objective 2 1.3 Scope of the Study 2 1.4 Thesis Organization 3 2 CHAPTER 2 LITERATURE REVIEW 4 2.1 Future Climate Change 4 2.2 Climate Change in Taiwan 5 2.3 Impact of Climate Change on Pavements 7 2.4 Enhanced Integrated Climatic Model (EICM) 8 2.4.1 Infiltration and Drainage Model 9 2.4.2 The Climatic-Material-Structural Model (CMS Model) 10 2.4.3 CRREL Frost Heave and Thaw Settlement Model 10 2.5 Soil Water Characteristic Curve 10 2.6 Pavement Unbound Materials 12 2.6.1 Coarse Grained Soils 13 2.6.2 Fine Grained Soils 13 2.6.3 Predictive Models for Resilient Modulus of Unbound Materials 14 2.7 Pavement Performance Models 16 2.7.1 AASHTO (1993) 16 2.7.2 Flexible Pavement Design Technology in Taiwan 17 2.7.3 Equivalent Single Axle Load (ESAL) 18 2.7.4 Structural Number (SN) 18 2.7.5 AASHTO Structural Layer Coefficients 19 2.7.6 Pavement Remaining Service Life 20 2.8 Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) 21 2.8.1 MEPDG Design Procedure 22 2.8.2 Hierarchical Approach 22 3 CHAPTER 3 RESEARCH METHODS 24 3.1 Pavement Locations 25 3.2 Climate Data Collection 26 3.3 Climate Scenarios 28 3.4 Climate Files Preparation 32 3.5 Pavement Materials 33 3.5.1 Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) and Base layer 33 3.5.2 Subgrade Layer 35 3.6 Traffic Estimation (ESAL) 36 3.7 Pavement Unbound Material Property Evaluation 38 3.7.1 Prediction of Unbound Layer Moisture with EICM 38 3.7.2 Unbound Material Mechanical Property 39 3.8 Pavement Performance Evaluation 41 3.8.1 Pavement Service Life Estimation Using AASHTO 1993 Design Equation 41 3.8.2 Pavement Service Life Estimation Using MEPDG 43 3.9 Life Cycle Cost Analysis 44 4 CHAPTER 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS 48 4.1 Pavement unbound Material Property Evaluation 48 4.1.1 Unbound Volumetric Moisture Content (VMC) 48 4.1.2 Base and Subgrade Saturation 52 4.1.3 Pavement Material Mechanical Property (resilient modulus) for Historical Climate 54 4.1.4 Unbound Mechanical Material Property (resilient modulus) for Future Climate Scenarios 56 4.2 Pavement Performance Evaluation 59 4.2.1 Structural Number Prediction 59 4.2.2 Pavement Service Life (AASHTO, 1993) 60 4.2.2.1 Baseline and Historical Climate 60 4.2.2.2 Future Climate Scenarios 61 4.2.3 Pavement Service Life Estimation with MEPDG 66 4.3 Life Cycle Cost Analysis 70 4.4 Discussion 75 5 CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 77 5.1 Summary 77 5.2 Conclusions 78 5.3 Recommendations 78 REFERENCES 80 APPENDIX A 84

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