供應鏈的穩定對社會中的各個產業而言是相當重要的，為了有一個穩固的供應鏈系統，供應鏈中的成員經常採取例如多供應商採購，或是供應鏈成員間以契約的方式來達成一定程度的協議，以確保成員間的穩固合作。然而若今於供應鏈中具有相當大的不確定性，諸如天災人禍或是作業疏失等難以控制之情形，足以構成供應鏈系統於運作上的中斷，那麼此時供應鏈運作上的風險控管便顯得相當重要了。
本研究嘗試以台灣製藥產業的獨特性質，也就是基於法規的限制因素下，製藥商一次僅能向單一原料藥供應商進行訂購原料藥的前提之下，來探討在原料的供應來源具極大的不確定性時，製造商或是零售商應如何設置其訂購的政策，以因應供應上的突發性中斷。然而，供應中斷後，供應商將會進行其供應能力的修復，故此時供應的修復能力是否迅速也將會影響到製造商於訂購批量上的決策。本研究期望結合供應修復和訂購批量兩種層面的考量，並以製藥產業為例，提供管理者於供應鏈的風險管理上的建議。
本研究最後以數值分析的方式，觀察出在供應商中斷率越高的情況下，製藥商更應該要設置足夠的原料藥訂購批量作為預防中斷的備用原料，且平日與供應商的協同維護，提升供應發生中斷時的供應修復能力也是相當重要的。

Because of the importance of supply chain stability, supply chain members always use some methods like multi-vendor sourcing or contracting with each other in order to make sure their supply chain system operates smoothly. But if some unreasonable or unpredictable situations such as natural disasters or negligent operations happen, they will have negative impacts on the supply chain system. Risk management in supply chains is thus important.

By using the example of Taiwan's pharmaceutical industry, which is based on the premise that under constraints and regulations, pharmaceutical manufacturers once only can purchase their raw materials, called “API”, from a single supplier. This situation is unique but with uncertainty, so this thesis builds a model to help the manufacturer to set up their ordering quantity to cope with supply disruption. After the supply disruption, the supplier will start its supply repairing as soon as possible, and this will also affect the manufacturer's decision on the order quantity. In this thesis, we take both the repairing cost and ordering quantity policy into consideration in order to minimize the aggregate cost. Furthermore, we conduct parametric analysis, and give some suggestions to the managers in the pharmaceutical industry.

行政院衛生署, 西藥藥品優良製造規範(第二部：原料藥), 1-49, 2013.
Report of the International Summit on Medicines Shortage, International Pharmaceutical
Federation, Toronto, Canada 20-21 June 2013
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