工業的發展常伴隨著環境污染議題，如重金屬即可能隨著工業廢水的排放進入於環境中，並經由水體的流動及轉換傳輸至不同介質中，長期且持續的污染對於環境及生物皆可能造成危害。多介質模式近年來已被廣泛運用於健康風險評估中，其可藉由模擬情境與參數的建置推估化學物質於食物鏈中的分布狀況，模擬所得結果亦可運用於風險管理。
因此，本研究目的為建立適用於台南鹽水溪的放流水多介質模式，並經由模式推估污染物質於環境及食物鏈介質中分布情形，並分析多介質模式之敏感性及模擬過程中的不確定性。此外，亦利用地下水體污染物質擴散模擬結果進行不同情境之多介質評估及健康風險評估，進而對於風險管理提出建議策略。
本研究地下水污染擴散模擬以MODFLOW及MT3DMS模式進行，並依據美國國家環境保護署公告之人體健康風險評估草案(Human Health Risk Assessment Protocol, HHRAP)建立不同情境之多介質模式，推估食物鏈介質中的重金屬濃度。所得之模擬濃度結果續結合國家攝食資料庫及台南當地參數進行暴露量評估及風險評估，並採用蒙地卡羅模擬進行不確定性及敏感性分析。
以樣本分析結果而言，枯水期及豐水期水體樣本中金屬含量均符合目前放流水標準，且以枯水期所得之數據高於豐水期；全年魚體樣本中金屬含量亦符合水產動物類衛生標準。
健康風險評估結果顯示，相較於地下水，若使用河川水作為農業活動單一用水來源，將使鹽水流域居民所暴露的金屬劑量增加，進而提高致癌及非致癌風險，但風險仍落於可接受範圍內。此外，若攝食一定比例之河川魚，將可能增加砷、汞及鉛之暴露劑量。
若暴露情境參考當地灌溉用水組成，將地下水與河川水結合進行灌溉，並以地下水從事畜牧及養殖等活動，則風險評估結果顯示，對於19-65歲成人而言，非致癌風險部分，95th HI (危害指標)為0.312，表示暴露濃度低於產生健康危害效應之閾值，其中風險貢獻量最高為汞(44.8%)，其次為鉛(20.4%)，皆主要來自河川水；致癌風險部份，95th CR (癌症風險)為2.23E-05，表示每100,000名民眾中可能約有3名民眾因使用受污染之地下水及河川水而有罹癌風險，其中貢獻量最高為砷(99.0%)，其次為鉛(1.05%)。
總和以上，以本研究所之使用之多介質模式搭配台灣特定區域在地參數，應可評估長期之河川汙染所造成之居民民生及用水暴露所造成之健康風險問題，且對於區域性用水管理應可提供以風險評估為基礎之放流水管理建議與水資源管理策略參考。

The development of industry not only brings economic benefit, but also accompanies with environmental pollution issues, such as the emission of industrial waste effluents. Recently, the multiple media pathway has been widely used in health risk assessment, and it can estimate the distribution of chemical substances in food chain by alternative scenarios with different parameters. Hence, the purpose of this study is to establish a multiple media pathway for wastewater effluents in Tainan Yenshui River, and analysis the uncertainties of health risk assessment. In this study, environmental and biological samples are analyzed to find the degree of pollution in Yenshui River. MODFLOW and MT3DMS models are used to predict the metal distribution in groundwater after long-term pollution. Multiple media pathway is established follow by human health risk assessment protocol (HHRAP), which is published by US EPA. According to the simulation and assessment results, non-carcinogenic risk in different scenarios are lower than the threshold for health hazard effects. While simulation scenario refers to local irrigation water composition, the highest contribution metals of hazard index (HI) are mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb), and the dose of Hg and Pb are mainly caused by river. The sensitivity results indicate that the intake of plants is the key parameter to affect the risk assessment results, follows by metal concentration of river or groundwater. Thus, local residents should reduce the use of river water to decrease the metal exposure.

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