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研究生: 劉宇婷
Liu, Yu-Ting
論文名稱: 考慮在階層式群體決策環境下之專家模糊意見整合
Aggregating Experts’ Fuzzy Opinions for Hierarchical Group Decision-Making Problems
指導教授: 陳梁軒
Chen, Liang-Hsuan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 82
中文關鍵詞: 模糊多屬性決策群體決策階層式群體相似程度整合係數整合值
外文關鍵詞: Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making, Group decision making, Hierarchical group of experts, Similarity, Aggregation coefficient, Aggregation result
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  • 隨著時代的變遷,現實環境中所面臨的決策問題也逐漸擴大,往往包含了多個評估的屬性與可行方案,而屬性的評估方式不再侷限於明確數值的給定,決策者可以透過模糊數或是語意字詞評估該屬性的表現分數,此為模糊多屬性決策(Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making;FMADM)之問題。然而,面對複雜的決策問題,通常需要一群專家共同參與該決策,群體決策(Group Decision Making;GDM)於是應運而生。由於組織型態的演變,現實環境中之決策團隊往往有階級之分,形成了專家意見重要度相異的情況。根據此類問題,本研究將發展一套方法,用以解決模糊多屬性之決策問題,且適用於階層式群體決策之環境下,並運用模糊集合理論的概念,建構一整合專家意見之兩階段研究流程,第一階段為方案的評估,各專家針對各方案之主觀屬性做評估,並將其模糊性資料做處理,以便後續之整合,第二階段為專家意見之整合,針對各項屬性決定專家之權重,並考慮該專家與各階層專家之意見相似程度,找出整合係數以做為各專家意見的權重,最後計算求得專家意見之整合值。本研究將套用範例,演算各流程的步驟,以驗證本研究所提之方法的可行性,並可以廣泛適用於其他類型之決策問題。

    In the real world, decision makers are often faced with complicated decision problems where many attributes and alternatives are considered. An alternative with respect to an attribute can be assessed by crisp data, but decision making usually includes subjective opinions. Experts can use linguistic terms to express their real opinions, and these tend to be fuzzy rather than precise. As a result, various fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (FMADM) methods, which are suitable for group decision making (GDM) problems in a fuzzy environment, have been developed. In this field, we consider a heterogeneous group of experts in a hierarchical structure, and develop a rational fuzzy opinion aggregation model.
    In the proposed model, an aggregation technique for a hierarchical group of experts is employed which deals with experts’ fuzzy opinions about the subjective attributes of a decision problem. The aggregation model includes three major states, the initial state, first state and second state. The purpose of the initial state is to form a committee of experts, then identify attributes and alternatives. In the first state, each expert gives performance ratings about alternatives with regard to each subjective attribute. After rating, the fuzzy data should be converted into a standardized form so that it can be calculated later on. In the second state, an aggregation method for group of experts is employed. Two factors are considered in this method. One is the weight of each expert, and it is different for each attribute. Another is the similarity of the opinions between experts. Finally, we combine these two factors linearly and find the aggregation coefficient, which helps to obtain the aggregation result of the fuzzy opinions.
    To verify the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method, two cases are used to demonstrate every step in each state. The results show that the proposed model is flexible and can be applied widely to different group decision making problems.

    摘要.....................................................................................I Abstract..............................................................................II 誌謝....................................................................................IV 目錄.................................................................................... V 表目錄.................................................................................VI 圖目錄................................................................................VIII 第一章 緒論 1 1.1 研究背景 1 1.2 研究動機 2 1.3 研究目的 3 1.4 研究流程 4 1.5 論文架構 5 第二章 文獻探討 6 2.1 模糊集合理論6 2.2 多準則決策 10 2.3 群體決策 11 2.4 相似測度 13 2.5 模糊意見整合17 第三章 群體模糊意見整合方法 27 3.1 研究構想 27 3.2 初始階段 31 3.3 第一階段方法之屬性評估 32 3.4 第二階段專家意見整合 33 第四章 範例演算 40 4.1 範例一:重視專家權力 40 4.2 範例二:重視法定權力 57 第五章 結論與未來研究方向 75 5.1 研究成果 75 5.2 未來研究方向 77 參考文獻 79 表目錄 表2-1 各學者相似測度特性及公式整理 16 表2-2 服務品質之語意尺度 17 表2-3 模糊意見整合方法之文獻整理 23 表2-4 模糊意見整合相關文獻之比較 26 表3-1 語意變數之轉換尺度 33 表4-1 範例一之主觀屬性 41 表4-2 各屬性下之專家語意評估(範例一) 42 表4-3 各屬性下之專家評估值(範例一) 43 表4-4 各屬性下之專家相似度因子(範例一) 45 表4-5 各屬性下之低階層專家權重因子(範例一) 46 表4-6 各屬性下之專家整合係數(範例一) 47 表4-7 專家意見整合值(範例一) 48 表4-8 各屬性下之專家語意評估(特殊範例一) 49 表4-9 各屬性下之專家評估值(特殊範例一) 49 表4-10 各屬性下之專家相似度因子(特殊範例一) 52 表4-11 各屬性下之專家整合係數(特殊範例一) 53 表4-12 範例一與特殊範例一之整合係數比較 53 表4-13 特殊範例一之α值敏感度分析(AC11~AC31) 54 表4-14 特殊範例一之α值敏感度分析(AC32~AC33) 55 表4-15 範例二之主觀評估屬性 59 表4-16 各屬性下之專家語意評估(範例二) 59 表4-17 各屬性下之專家評估值(範例二) 60 表4-18 各屬性下之專家相似度因子(範例二) 63 表4-19 各屬性下之專家權重因子(範例二) 63 表4-20 各屬性下之專家整合係數(範例二) 64 表4-21 專家意見整合值(範例二) 64 表4-22 各屬性下之專家語意評估(特殊範例二) 66 表4-23 各屬性下之專家語意評估值(特殊範例二) 66 表4-24 各屬性下之專家相似度因子(特殊範例二) 69 表4-25 各屬性下之專家整合係數(特殊範例二) 70 表4-26 範例二與特殊範例二之整合係數比較 70 表4-27 範例二與特殊範例二之相似度因子比較 71 表4-28 特殊範例二之β值敏感度分析(C1A1) 72 圖目錄 圖1-1 研究流程圖 4 圖2-1 梯形模糊數的歸屬函數圖形 7 圖2-2 三角模糊數的歸屬函數圖形 8 圖2-3 五等級重要性語意尺度隸屬函數 9 圖2-4 簡單式組織結構 12 圖2-5 功能式組織結構 12 圖2-6 截面矩示意圖 16 圖2-7 分權化階層式架構 24 圖2-8 分權化階層式專家權重範例……………………………………………….25 圖2-9 論文評價流程架構圖……………………………………………………….25 圖3-1 研究方法架構圖 29 圖3-2 語意尺度之隸屬函數 30 圖3-3 決策團隊階層示意圖 32 圖3-4 低階層專家間相似度權重之示意圖 35 圖3-5 中階層專家間相似度權重之示意圖 36 圖4-1 範例一之決策問題架構圖 40 圖4-2 決策團隊之階層架構(範例一) 41 圖4-3 屬性C1在方案A1下之α值敏感度分析 55 圖4-4 屬性C2在方案A1下之α值敏感度分析 55 圖4-5 屬性C3在方案A1下之α值敏感度分析 56 圖4-6 屬性C4在方案A1下之α值敏感度分析 56 圖4-7 屬性C5在方案A1下之α值敏感度分析 56 圖4-8 範例二之決策問題架構圖 58 圖4-9 決策團隊之階層架構(範例二) 58 圖4-10 特殊範例二之β值敏感度分析 73

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