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研究生: 蘇俊傑
Sou, Chon-Kit
論文名稱: 價值與質量複合型策略於台灣市場之實證研究
An Empirical Study of Value and Quality Composite Strategy in Taiwan Stock Market
指導教授: 顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 71
中文關鍵詞: 價值投資價值策略毛利資產報酬率FSCOREQMJ因子
外文關鍵詞: value investing, value strategy, FSCORE, gross profitability, QMJ
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  • 本文從價值投資的概念出發,研究在台灣股票市場中結合價值策略(value strategy)指標,如帳面市值比(book-to-market ratio, B/M),和質量策略(quality strategy)的指標,如FSCORE(Piotroski, 2000), 毛利資產報酬率(gross profit-to-assets, GP/TA)(Novy-Marx, 2013)及Zquality(Asness, Frazzini, & Pedersen, 2019),做多其中價值高質(value & strong)兼具的股票,做空成長低質(weak & growth)兼具的股票,構成市場定價與企業基本面背離的對沖投組,檢驗此複合型策略是否有顯著的對沖報酬,是否有超過單一策略的績效表現,以及哪種複合策略最適用於台灣市場。
    實證研究結果顯示,研究期間(1999/07-2019/06)複合對沖策略(B/M&FSCORE、B/M&GP/TA和B/M&Zquality)的表現是符合預期的,買賣定價與基本面質量背離的企業能夠獲得正向的對沖報酬,然而僅有複合策略(B/M&GP/TA)的對沖報酬(hedge return)、超額收益(excess return)在平均權重和市值加權的情況下,均具有統計上的顯著性(市值加權的情況下,該策略之風險調整收益不具統計上的顯著性)。相對於單一策略,結合價值和質量指標兩者能夠顯著提升績效,然而於市值加權下,僅B/M&GP/TA的績效提升達到顯著水平。整體來看,B/M&GP/TA的投組表現於經濟意義上明顯高於B/M&FSCORE和B/M&Zquality,然而三個策略之間的報酬率不具有統計上的顯著差異。
    另外,所有複合型策略在小市值股票上有更顯著的對沖報酬,而且在提升單一策略的績效上均達顯著水準。對於不做空的價值投資者而言,B/M&GP/TA是於台灣股市場相對較佳的選擇,即便其與B/M&FSCORE和B/M&Zquality的績效差異並不顯著。以其他價值指標(益本比、現金流市值比、銷售市值比、息稅前淨利潤與企業價值比)作為B/M之替代,發現B/M於台灣股票市場仍是作為價值指標之最佳選擇。

    This article composites the value metric (B/M) and quality metric (FSCORE, GP/TA, Zquality) for constructing three strategies (B/M&FSCORE, B/M&GP/TA, B/M&Zquality) to identify the mispriced stocks based on the thought of value investing in the Taiwan stock market from 1999/07 to 2019/06. The result shows that one of the composite strategies (B/M &GP/TA) do have statistically significant hedge return and excess return in both average weighting and value weighting, but its return is statistically insignificant after adjusting by the common risk factors in value weighting. Compared with single strategy (B/M, FSCORE, GP/TA, Zquality), composite strategy performances better in hedge return, Sharpe ratio and max drawdown, although only B/M&GP/TA keep significantly different with its single strategy in value weighting. Finally, there is no statistical difference between those three composite strategies, whereas B/M&GP/TA performs the best in the view of economic. Moreover, this article also concerns the composite strategy with firm size, long-only positions, and other value metrics. Firstly, all composite strategies get significant hedge return and improvement in small-cap firms, while only B/M&GP/TA keeps the statistical significance in big-cap firms. Secondly, there is no statistical difference between those three composite strategies with long-only positions, B/M&GP/TA shows the best performance with economically significance. Finally, B/M still is the most suitable value metric as the value investing in Taiwan stock market compared with E/P, CF/P, S/P, EBIT/EV.

    目錄摘要 i 目錄 xxiv 表目錄 xxvi 圖目錄 xxvii 第1章 緒論 1 1.1. 背景與動機 1 1.2. 方法與結果 3 1.3. 結論與貢獻 5 第2章 文獻回顧 6 2.1. 價值投資 6 2.2. 價值策略 8 2.2.1. 帳面市值比 8 2.2.2. 其他價值指標 9 2.3. 質量策略 11 2.3.1. Piotroski’s FSCORE 11 2.3.2. 毛利資產收益率(gross profit-over-total assets) 13 2.3.3. Zquality(Asness et al.) 13 2.4. 台灣市場中的價值和質量策略 14 第3章 研究方法 15 3.1. 假說推論 15 3.2. 研究樣本 17 3.3. 主要變數 20 3.3.1. 帳面市值比 (Book-to-market, B/M) 20 3.3.2. Piotroski’s FSCORE 20 3.3.3. 毛利資產報酬率 (Gross profit-to-assets, GP/TA) 21 3.3.4. Assness et al.’s QMJ 21 3.4. 組合建構 26 3.4.1. 策略建構 26 3.4.2. 績效指標計算 27 3.5. 其他考量 28 3.5.1. 市值 28 3.5.2. 常見風險因子 28 3.5.3. 做多策略 31 3.5.4. 其他價值指標 31 第4章 研究結果 32 4.1. 描述性統計 32 4.2. 單一策略 37 4.3. 複合策略 43 4.4. 相關討論 55 4.4.1. 市值 (大市值、小市值) 55 4.4.2. 常見風險因子迴歸 55 4.4.3. 做多策略之績效探討 56 4.4.4. 其他價值指標 57 第5章 結論 64

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