2010年隨著蘋果(Apple)iPad的暢銷，帶動整個平板電腦(Tablet PC)的興起，各家業者也都感受到這股熱潮，無不投入戰場就是要分食這塊大餅。2010年平板電腦總銷售量為1,882萬台，預估2012全年平板電腦出貨量可突破一億台大關。這個數字相當於整體筆記型電腦(Notebook)近三成的市場出貨量，面對平板的這波攻勢，同樣是可攜式的筆記型電腦將首當其衝。業者紛紛提高警覺，深怕平板電腦的暢銷將吞食整個NB市場，已著手調整產品策略來鞏固版圖。
「創新」的確可帶來消費的風潮，只要市場消費者對新產品的平板電腦有一定的接受程度，整個平板市場便可以更迅速的拓展開來。本研究將利用Bass的基本擴散模型探討創新產品─平板電腦是如何進行創新擴散，並利用模型進行銷售預測分析。另一方面，平板電腦進入市場後難免與筆記型電腦正面交鋒，短期看來平板電腦吸引嘗鮮者採用已席捲整個電腦市場，因此本研究也將探討平板電腦與筆記型電腦間銷售的消長取代現象，分析在未來幾年平板電腦是否有機會超越筆記型電腦的地位，成為下一個電腦世代的主流。
本研究經模型的實證，發現平板電腦與NB兩產品的擴散狀態是口碑行銷的影響較大，且分析產品的關鍵多數(Critical mass)後，平板電腦比NB較早達到關鍵多數，也就表示採用人數擴張的速度也比NB來的快。另外，從2010平板電腦的加入，NB的銷售量就開始受到牽動。觀看2010~2011近兩年NB的銷售量都未有突破性的成長，銷售曲線呈現上下波動的走勢，產品市場的重疊已開始蠶食 NB出貨量，顯然市場已開始出現排擠效應。

Triggered by the growing popularity of Apple iPad, Tablet PC industry grew tremendously in 2010. The iPad popularity attracted all computer brands to manufacture iPad one after another. As a result, 18.82 millions of tablet PC were sold in 2010. The 2012 tablet PC sales is expected to exceed 100 million, approximately 30% of NB sales in the same year. The growing popularity of tablet PC imposes tremendous threats to NB industry. As a result, NB manufacturers have begun to adjust their product strategies in order to maintain their market share.
Innovation will definitely draw consumers’ attention. As long as consumers accept new products to a certain extent, tablet PC market will certainly grow faster than ever. This study attempts to identify the innovation and diffusion of new product – tablet PC – using Bass diffusion models and meanwhile forecast and analyze the sales. At the time that tablet PC and NB are rivaling in the market, tablet PC continues to grow popular in the short-term and will dominate the computer market as time elapses. Therefore, this study focuses on the substitutability between tablet PC and NB in order to find out if tablet PC has any chance to replace NB in the future and dominates the next generation of computer.
Based on the empirical research, this study finds that word of mouth plays a vital role for the diffusion of tablet PC and NB, and tablet PC has reached the critical mass faster than NB. In other words, the number of tablet PC users grows faster than the number of NB users. Furthermore, NB sales began to change after tablet PC was introduced to the market in 2010. NB sales did not break the bottleneck and for somehow fluctuated in 2010~2011. The overlapping market has caused NB sales to drop. Apparently, the crowding-out effect has emerged in the market.

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