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研究生: 鄭家宜
Cheng, Chia-i
論文名稱: 策略性營運槓桿的評價
Valuation of Strategic Operating Leverage Option
指導教授: 王明隆
Wang, Ming-Lung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2007
畢業學年度: 95
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 44
中文關鍵詞: 不可逆成本擴充選擇權營運槓桿
外文關鍵詞: Irreversible cost, Option to, Operating leverage
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  • 當公司面臨一個新的投資方案時,成本是最重要的考量因素,因為它會影響未來的期望收益。藉由淨現值法的使用,我們假設成本是不可逆成本。亦即投入的固定資產沒有殘值。在此假設下,公司經營者需依據市場狀況決定最適的營運槓桿。由於實質選擇權是近年很熱門的話題,可以增加投資計畫的價值,像是擴充選擇權、棄絕選擇權與成長選擇權。因此我們考慮加入實質選擇權之後的營運槓桿績效。這是本文章與過去文獻的最大不同,因為過去討論營運槓桿的文獻多著重在營運槓桿與營運風險之間的關連。
    藉由使用數值方法,我們知道當管理者預期未來市場需求很大時,會採用高營運槓桿的策略;反之則採用低營運槓桿策略,然後在未來市場景氣轉好時進行擴充。同時我們可以衡量出,若需求變異性越大,管理者越傾向於使用低營運槓桿以規避高的營運風險。

    When management faces a new project, costs are the most important element. The cost amount will affect the expected profit. By using the NPV method, the cost of facility is irreversible. The fixed assets do not have salvage value, in other words, we cannot gain cash inflow from selling the fixed assets. Management should decide the best strategy of operating leverage according to the market situation. Previous research about operating leverage has concentrated on the relationship between operating risk and operating leverage. In contrast to these literatures, we assume that management needs to think about the possibility of existing real options such as the option to expand, abandon and grow. Real options can increase the value of an investment project. In this paper, we assume that there is an option to expand held by management. Management has to take actions after taking the option into account.
    By using a mathematical method, we obtain the conclusion that if management expects the market to be good, they will adopt high operating leverage; if their expectation is bad, they will use low operating leverage and have an option to expand. If the market becomes better in the future, management will exercise the option and transfer to a firm with high operating leverage. Furthermore, if the demand varies a lot, in other words, the volatility greatly, management will tend to use low operating leverage to avoid the high operating risk.

    Chapter 1 Introduction………………………………………………………………1 Chapter 2 Literature Review……………………………………………………………5 2.1 Operating Leverage ………………………………………………………………5 2.2 Irreversible Investment …………………………………………………………7 2.3 Evaluating Methods……………………………………………………………9 2.4 Options to expand………………………………………………………………10 Chapter 3 Methodology…………………………………………………………………12 3.1 The definition of operating leverage……………………………………………12 3.2 Basic Assumptions………………………………………………………………13 3.3 Mathematical Model………………………………………………….…………17 3.3.1 Distinguish the total cost under high operating leverage and low operating leverage…………………………………………………………………17 3.3.2 The profit of each operating leverage under one-period model…………18 A. Calculate the profit of high operating leverage……………………18 B. Calculate the profit of low operating leverage……………………19 C. Distinguish which operating leverage can get higher profit at time 0 ………………………………………………………………21 3.3.3 The profit of each operating leverage under two-period model…………22 A. Calculate the profit of high operating leverage……………………22 B. Calculate the profit of low operating leverage……………………23 C. Distinguish which operating leverage can get higher profit at time 0………………………………………………………………25 Chapter 4 Numerical Solutions…………………………………………………………27 4.1 Which operating leverage should we take under different time periods with the assumptions………………………………………………………………28 4.2 The difference of profit under different volatility of future demand………33 4.3 The difference of profit under different coefficient of variable cost………34 Chapter 5 Conclusions and Further Research. 5.1 Conclusions……………………………………………………………38 5.2 Further Research………………………………………………………39 Appendix Reference

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