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研究生: 郭育仁
Kuo, Yu-Zen
論文名稱: 營建工程投標決策模擬研究
The Simulation of Bidding Decision Making for Construction Contractor
指導教授: 楊大和
Yang, Ta-ho
共同指導教授: 陳耀光
Chen, Yaw-kuang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 電機資訊學院 - 製造資訊與系統研究所
Institute of Manufacturing Information and Systems
論文出版年: 2010
畢業學年度: 98
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 80
中文關鍵詞: 投標模型投資組合效用函數
外文關鍵詞: bidding model, investment portfolio, utility function
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  • 營造廠業務的主要來源,多半是需參與競標而取得,因此競標是營造廠最重視的營建工程生命週期環節之一,也一直是營建管理中的一個討論重點。以往討論競標的理論非常多,但業界其實很少採用這些理論,其實用性及合理性常引發爭議。
    由於營造業的決策過程隱含有極大的風險,且其在爭取工程案時,所能用來評估風險局勢的時間甚為短促,因此一套能有效引導營造業者評估競標情勢及設定投標價格的模型是有必要的。
    傳統的競標理論模型是以取得工程個案為要件,主要探討個案的得標機率與出標價格問題,並以出標價格與得標機率高低訂出期望利潤值,作為投標的參考。但是在目前競爭激烈的營造市場,業者必須從整體性的觀點作決策性的競標。整合性競標策略模型以傳統競標理論為基礎,加入以投標組合降低風險的概念,並以財務管理的客觀經濟分析與主觀的效用評估,分析最佳的投標價格,並反映出參加何者競標對公司營運是最佳選擇。
    整合性競標策略模型為一計量模型,其評估以統計方法及工程經濟分析為主;評估過程中需大量重複性數學運算及資料結果,如以人工計算將耗費許多時間成本,因此本研究將設計一電腦程式來進行模型的運算工作。
    本研究將先回顧國內外此類研究之成果,繼而討論整合性競標策略模型之理論基礎及其架構內容。然後針對整合性競標策略模型評估個案之過程設計電腦程式,並進行個案模擬分析研究,並經由對模型中各解釋變數的模擬分析,及與其他競標模型對個案的模擬結果作一比較來評估模型之操作,最後再提出結論。

    關鍵字:投標模型、投資組合、效用函數

    The work of contractors mainly come from bidding, they take this as the main process of the construction project life cycle. And also, it is the most important part to be discussed in the construction management field. We had created many bidding theories before, but rarely be used, because of its reasonable and practicable usually cause a lot of arguments.
    When the contractors try to compete a project, the time for them to consider the situation of risk is so rush, and so during the making-decision process, the risk will be increased implicitly. So, a new bidding model is valuable for those contractors to evaluate the whole bidding situation and is necessary to set up the model of bidding price.
    Traditionally, bidding theory model its fact is mainly winning the project, investigation the bidding probabilities of the bidding price and to consider ,their expected profit value as the reference for bidding. But now the construction market is more competitive than before. So contractors must integrated their viewpoint for strategic bidding. The Integrated Bidding Strategy Model (I B S M ) based on traditional bidding theories with the concept of difference bidding combinations to low down the level of the risk. And also objectively use the economic analysis of financial management and subjectively evaluate the utility function to analysis the best of the bidding price. And to find out which one is the best choice for the contractor.
    The I B S M is a calculating model, it mainly use the statistic method and the engineering economic for analysis evaluation. During the evaluating process, it needs a huge volume of reputation in mathematics calculation and the database, it will waste a lot of time if we use by hand. So. In this research, I would try to design a computer formula for this model in calculation.

    This thesis firstly review included foreign and local relative articles. And then, discuss the I B S M evaluating process, design a computer formula for modifying the analysis research. By using this modified analysis, we can find out the meaning of each variables in this model, compare with other bidding model, finally we can get the conclusion.
    Key words:bidding model, investment portfolio, utility function

    目錄 中英文摘要……………………………………………………………………………I 誌謝 …………………………………………………………………………………IV 目錄 …………………………………………………………………………………V 表目錄 ………………………………………………………………………………VII 圖目錄 ………………………………………………………………………………VIII 符號 …………………………………………………………………………………IX 第1章 緒論 1-1 研究動機與研究目的……………………………………………………………1 1-2 研究範圍與限制…………………………………………………………………1 1-3 研究程序…………………………………………………………………………2 第2章 文獻回顧與評述 2-1競標策略模型……………………………………………………………………5 2-1.1機率式競標模型………………………………………………………………5 2-1.2其他競標策略模型……………………………………………………………7 2-1.3競標策略模型之比較…………………………………………………………9 2-2營造廠對競標策略之決策分析…………………………………………………9 2-2.1營造廠的競標特性……………………………………………………………9 2-2.2營造廠的投標作業流程………………………………………………………11 2-2.3競標的決策因素………………………………………………………………12 第3章 理論基礎 3-1傳統競標策略理論— Carr 競標策略模型……………………………………16 3-1.1最低標本比(LBC)………………………………………………………… 16 3-1.2 Carr模型競標策略評估…………………………………………………… 17 3-2賽局理論…………………………………………………………………………20 3-3風險管理理論……………………………………………………………………21 3-3.1風險管理架構…………………………………………………………………21 3-3.2風險管理的決策技術…………………………………………………………23 3-4投資組合理論……………………………………………………………………23 3-4.1單一投資風險與投資組合的風險……………………………………………24 3-4.2效率前緣組合…………………………………………………………………25 3-5效用函數理論……………………………………………………………………26 3-5.1效用函數理論…………………………………………………………………26 3-5.2效用函數建立方式與應用……………………………………………………26 第4章 整合性競標策略模型探討 4-1整合性競標策略模型架構………………………………………………………29 4-2得標機率 P(W) 分析……………………………………………………………31 4-3直接成本與得標之風險分析……………………………………………………33 4-4有效毛利潤率分析………………………………………………………………37 4-4.1營建工程的財務成本……………………………………………………………38 4-4.2通貨膨脹對營造廠毛利潤率的影響…………………………………………39 4-5投標組合分析……………………………………………………………………40 4-6效用函數…………………………………………………………………………42 4-7模型評估流程及其考量競標因子………………………………………………44 第5章 決策模擬 5-1模擬評估流程……………………………………………………………………47 5-2投標標的分析……………………………………………………………………49 5-2.1原有工程案之敘述……………………………………………………………49 5-2.2新工程個案及新投標組合……………………………………………………49 5-2.3投標組合分析…………………………………………………………………51 5-3模擬結果分析……………………………………………………………………53 5-3.1期望效用增量分析……………………………………………………………53 5-3.2經濟效益分析…………………………………………………………………60 5-4評估模型之修正…………………………………………………………………62 5-4.1各變數模擬分析………………………………………………………………62 5-4.2與其他模型之比較分析………………………………………………………73 第6章 結論與建議 6-1結論………………………………………………………………………………77 6-2後序研究建議……………………………………………………………………78 參考文獻………………………………………………………………………………79 附錄(光碟) 附錄一 整合性競標策略模型電腦模擬程式 附錄二 整合性競標策略模型電腦程式評估檔案之輸入方法及實例 附錄三 個案電腦模擬結果

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