本研究探討細懸浮微粒(PM2.5)管制策略對於臺灣地區空氣品質之改善成效性與管制重點污染物，研究工作主要分為兩部分，(1)各策略情境排放量計算推估與(2)應用第三代空氣品質模式(Model-3/CMAQ)進行臺灣地區細懸浮微粒(PM2.5)空氣品質模擬。
本研究共有三情境，包含：(一)103年基準情境 (二)109年清淨空氣計畫減量情境與 (三)清淨空氣計畫減量下額外減量策略情境。考慮排放源自然成長後之基準年排放量推估SOx排放量為121.3千噸、NOx排放量為404.4千噸與PM2.5排放量73.5千噸，經空氣品質模式進行一、四、七、十月份模擬，結果顯示臺灣地區平均PM2.5濃度為21.9μg/m3，與103年全臺監測站平均濃度28.7μg/m3比較為低估，全臺平均模擬濃度以四月份29.7μg/m3 > 一月份28.0μg/m3 > 十月份19.7μg/m3 > 七月份10.3μg/m3，各月PM2.5濃度最高分佈於中部南投與高屏地區，原生性PM2.5於各月份為PM2.5質量濃度中最高佔比，另外於一、四、十月份之中部、雲嘉南以及高屏空品區硝酸鹽濃度佔比則大於硫酸鹽。以模擬PM2.5濃度與硫酸鹽、硝酸鹽與原生性PM2.5濃度進行相關性比較，結果以硝酸鹽相關性最高(r=0.926)，其次為原生性PM2.5(r=0.797)與硫酸鹽(r=0.700)，顯示PM2.5濃度變化應與硝酸鹽濃度變化較相關。
經清淨空氣行動計畫減量計算後，SOx排放量為103.4千噸、NOx排放量為246.2千噸與PM2.5排放量59.7千噸，使用空氣品質模式進行一、四、七、十月份模擬，模擬後全臺平均PM2.5濃度為17.5μg/m3，與基準年PM2.5濃度比較，PM2.5全臺平均改善率為20.1%，各月份PM2.5改善率最高為十月(18.3%) > 四月(17.2%) > 一月(14.4%) > 七月(14.3%)，各月份PM2.5濃度於南投與台南高雄內陸地區改善率最高。模擬PM2.5濃度與硫酸鹽、硝酸鹽與原生性PM2.5相關性結果以硝酸鹽相關性最高(r=0.916)，其次為原生性PM2.5(r=0.825)與硫酸鹽(r=0.760)，與基準年比較，由於NOx排放量減量相對較大，硝酸鹽與PM2.5相關性減少，而原生性PM2.5與硫酸鹽之相關性相對有提高，但仍以硝酸鹽與PM2.5濃度變化相關性最高。
延續清淨空氣行動計畫後再推動電力業使用天然氣、全面淘汰二行程機車以及推廣清潔燃料等額外減量策略後，SOx排放量為61.8千噸、NOx排放量為204.3千噸與PM2.5排放量54.8千噸，使用空氣品質模式進行一、四、七、十月份模擬，模擬後結果平均PM2.5濃度為15.6μg/m3，與基準年比較PM2.5濃度改善率為28.8%。各月份進一步改善效益最高為四月份(10.5%) >十月份(10.0%) > 七月份(8.6%) > 一月份(5.5%)，各月份改善區域主要分佈於中部以南區域。
解析SOx、NOx與PM2.5單位排放減量與硫酸鹽、硝酸鹽與原生性PM2.5¬濃度改善關係，並以NOx改善性作為權數1進行比較，情境二改善效益計算結果以SOx減量改善效益最低，為減量NOx排放之大氣PM2.5濃度改善效益之0.49倍，而減量排放PM2.5之改善效益最高，為減量NOx效益之9.38倍；情境三改善效益計算仍以SOx減量改善效益最低，為減量NOx效益之0.53倍，而減量排放PM2.5之改善效益最高，為減量NOx效益之4.88倍。綜合比較模擬PM2.5與硫酸鹽、硝酸鹽與原生性PM2.5濃度相關性解析，以及濃度改善率關係，NOx減量應能改善發生高PM2.5濃度之區域與時間，而減少PM2.5排放則應可對全臺灣地區不同月份皆有所改善。

This study estimated the effect of PM2.5 control measures on ambient concentration in Taiwan. Air quality model (CMAQ) was conducted to simulate the concentration of PM2.5 under three different control scenarios. Three scenarios were evaluated, which include base case and two controlled cases. The results of PM2.5 concentration simulation showed that the high PM2.5 concentrations were observed in central and southern Taiwan, especially at Taichung and Kaohsiung area. Annual average concentration of PM2.5 for Case A and Case B present 20.1% and 28.8% reduction, respectively, as compared to those of basics case. The results also implied that control NOx emissions may result in significant improvement on airborne PM2.5 concentration in episode day in Taiwan, and control primary PM2.5 emissions may improve airborne PM2.5 concentration in all months. However the result also indicates that the preliminary control plan could not attain the air quality standard. More control measures to reduce much more emissions from various emission sources should be developed in the future.

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