台灣位在歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊交界，島上蘊含豐富的溫泉地熱資源，為台灣重要的觀光遊憩產業，然而在長期人為開發影響下，溫泉資源之變動及其未來之趨勢，則成為溫泉產業發展管理之重要依據。本研究以數值模式進行台灣四重溪研究區地熱潛能與溫泉資源變動趨勢預估，依據搜集之研究區域水文地質資料，以數值軟體TOUGH2建立四重溪溫泉地區概念模型，模擬水流與熱流傳輸之情形，並由現地水位以及監測井溫度剖面模資料，藉由率定過程反算深層循環熱水注入值，結果指出四重溪地區地下熱流主要透過高透水性之大梅斷層破碎帶向上湧升，深循環水量約為每年31.5萬噸，溫度為77.7 °C，深循環水帶入熱焓為每年1.03×10^14焦耳。熱通量越高的區域，表示其從地球內部來的熱量越高，地溫梯度也越高，經由模擬輸出結果計算之區域熱通量為110.1 mW/m^2，約為全球平均地殼熱通量63 mW/m^2之1.75倍。
由於四重溪溫泉地區在長期開發下，區域地下水位已明顯發生洩降情況，故本研究所建立之數值模型以自然狀態模型為基礎進行初步率定，並考量人為開發情況下對研究區造成之影響，與監測資料擬合得現地之暫態模型，最後於模式中加入氣象資料與生產行為進行模擬，並由假設案例探討氣候變化對於本區水位變化之影響，持續豐枯水年補注差異由結果計算兩情況於預測模擬後第5年全年平均水位最大差異可達9.03公尺，可推斷溫泉區之補注量也會造成溫泉可用水量之變動。同時本研究藉由數值模擬探討溫泉生產減抽方案對區域水位回升之影響，由結果可知，在不同抽水量降低案例中，地下水位可呈現逐年回升，不同方案所獲得之成果，將可供本區溫泉資源之管理做為參考。

The purpose of this research is to estimate the geothermal potential and hot spring resources in Szu-Chung-Chi area. A three-dimensional conceptual model has been developed based on the site information including lithological characters, hydrogeological data, etc. Then the simulator, TOUGH2, had been carried out to construct a comprehensive hydrothermal model of the study area. This model was calibrated by recharge rate and material hydrogeological parameters, as well as by monitoring groundwater level. In order to avoid the effect of artificial pumping, a natural-state model was obtained and be applied to evaluate the geothermal potential and determine reservoir properties. Results show that major heat flow flowed along the high-permeability fault zone. The quantity of hot deep circle water is 0.315 million tons and the enthalpy is 1.03×10^14 joule each year. Average heat flux over the entire study area is 110.1 mW/m^2. In second step, due to long-term exploitation, the water level in this area has been significantly decreased. So the natural state model was further calibrated by groundwater level during 2012-2014 to obtain the present state in site simulation. The final step of modelling was to predict the future state and the effect of reducing exploitation. In Scenario 1, two different kinds of recharge rates assumed to estimate groundwater level and results showed that groundwater recharge difference between wet year and dry year can affect the water table. In Scenario 2, reduced exploitation made water table rising and the result is benefit to hot spring management in research area.

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