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研究生: 夏慶婷
Hsia, Ching-Ting
論文名稱: 探討影響臺灣圓環存廢之因素─以羅吉斯迴歸模型為工具
A Study of the Factors of Roundabouts in Taiwan: Using Logistic Regression as a Tool
指導教授: 李子璋
Lee, Tzu-Chang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系
Department of Urban Planning
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 78
中文關鍵詞: 圓環都市發展交叉分析空間型構法羅吉斯迴歸模型
外文關鍵詞: Roundabout, Urban development, Cross analysis, Space syntax, Logistic regression model
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  • 圓環是臺灣都市歷史上不可忽略的一環,在都市中是一個可供指認的節點(Nodes),但臺灣的圓環在歷經都市成長的過程而逐漸消失。從日治時期開始,圓環的概念被日人從西方引入,作為威權統治、殖民的象徵。自西元1970年代隨著都市交通量增加,圓環紓解交通的功能備受考驗。隨著都市發展,人口與機動車數量增加,圓環逐一被拆除,失去作為都市節點的凝聚力。
    為了回應上述臺灣圓環所面臨到的問題,本研究欲探討臺灣圓環經歷都市發展後被保留與否的因素,能作為未來新設圓環之設計與既有圓環之建議。以不同於過往單就交通方面的研究與政策判斷之角度切入,解析圓環存廢與否之現象與原因,不僅包含常見的交通觀點,還加入如區位、型態等面向的考量。
    本研究分為兩個階段,第一階段研究為圓環屬性分析,以套疊歷史圖資的方式,觀察臺灣圓環的變化並盤點屬性資料,分別以型態層面、交通層面、區位層面與時間層面進行分類。而後第二階段研究為圓環變遷模型分析,將針對具有時間脈絡的變數進行探討,以空間型構法觀察圓環自日治時期至今的在都市路網中的轉變,之後將空間型構法得出的指標與人口數、機動車輛登記數等變數建構圓環是否保留的羅吉斯迴歸模型,以模型的方式了解這些變數對圓環影響的顯著性與影響程度。
    研究結果顯示人口數、機動車輛登記數、空間型構法指標、交會道路層級、交會道路數量、路寬、圓環大小、土地使用分區等,皆為重要影響圓環是否保留的因素。並且不同的都市規劃手法也會影響圓環的轉變,如格子狀的街道設計較不適合設置圓環,放射狀的街道設計更為合適設置圓環也更容易讓臺灣圓環保存。最後以研究結果將圓環分類並建議該路口設置圓環是否具有優勢,並與實際狀況比較差異與原因。

    The roundabout is a node that can be identified in the city. However, with urban development, the number of people and vehicles increased, the roundabouts were dismantled one by one, losing their cohesiveness as urban nodes. To respond to the problems mentioned above, this study aims to explore the factors of whether the Taiwan roundabout will be retained or not after the urban development. To understand the factors of the transformation of the Taiwan roundabouts, which can be used for future design of new roundabouts and suggestions for the existing roundabouts. This study is divided into two stages. Firstly, overlays the historical maps and inventories the attributes of the roundabouts in Taiwan. Then, through literature review, the factors that may affect the change of the roundabout were obtained. Using the cross-analysis method to preliminarily understand how the factors influence each other and lead to the retention of the roundabout. Secondly, building the binary logistic regression model to explain how the factors affect roundabouts in Taiwan. Finally, according to the research results, we classify the roundabouts and suggest whether there is an advantage to set up the roundabouts at the intersection and compare the difference with the actual situation and the research results.

    第一章、緒論 1 一、研究動機 1 二、研究目的 2 三、研究流程與範疇 3 (一)研究流程 3 (二)研究範圍 4 (三)研究限制 5 (四)名詞解釋 7 第二章、文獻回顧 9 一、圓環簡介 9 (一)發展背景 10 (二)圓環型態 14 二、圓環相關研究 19 (一)國內外主要研究議題 19 (二)歷史圓環彙整 19 三、空間型構法則 21 (一)空間型構法則理論 21 (二)空間解構之概念 21 (三)空間型構法則指標 22 四、羅吉斯迴歸模型 23 (一)模型應用 23 (二)模型型態 23 (三)模型解釋 24 (四)變數選擇 25 第三章、研究設計 27 一、研究項目 27 (一)型態層面 27 (二)交通層面 29 (三)區位層面 30 (四)時間層面 31 二、研究架構與方法 31 (一)兩階段研究架構 31 (二)研究方法 33 第四章、實證分析 36 一、圓環屬性分析 36 (一)研究項目個別結果 36 (二)研究項目交叉分析結果 37 二、圓環變遷模型分析與應用 42 (一)初始模型 44 (二)修正模型 45 (三)模型結果解釋與分析 48 (四)圓環變遷模型驗證 50 (五)圓環變遷模型應用 51 三、圓環分類 56 (一)分類方式 56 (二)理論與實際分類差距 58 第五章、結論與建議 60 一、研究結論 60 (一)圓環變遷因素 60 (二)依都市發展特性給予臺灣圓環建議 61 二、後續研究建議 62 參考文獻 63 附錄 67

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