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研究生: 周岩錫
Chou, Yen-Hsi
論文名稱: 資金提供者如何影響房市門檻決策
How a capital provider affect the housing market entrance decision
指導教授: 劉裕宏
Liu, Yu-Hong
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 55
中文關鍵詞: 預售市場簡單賽局預售屋進入門檻
外文關鍵詞: presale market, game theory, presale entrance
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  • 本篇研究主要探討處於兩期模型下,若在建商與房屋消費者既有的雙人簡單賽局理論下,加入資金提供者以後,其融資決策包含建築融資與房屋貸款融資,對預售屋市場與房屋現貨市場之進入門檻值影響。根據先前的研究,有兩種選擇權存在預售屋市場。一為房屋買家的放棄合約選擇權,另一為建商的放棄建造選擇權。在模型中顯示,若不考慮異質期望與個人信用風險程度的情形下,融資借貸利率對資金提供者是否進入預售屋市場並無直接影響。其次,利用模型產生的數值模擬可以得知,在消費者放棄預售屋契約之選擇權價值為零的情形下,資金提供者並無誘因加入預售屋市場的資金貸放,同時房屋消費者亦無進入預售市場的意願,使得預售房市的門檻值提高;而在建商放棄房屋建築工程的機率為零的情形下,資金提供者與消費者皆願意進入預售屋市場,因此降低預售房市的門檻值。

    This thesis mainly discusses that when a capital provider participates in the existing two-period simple game between a house buyer and a construction developer, the effects of the housing market entrance decisions. According to previous research, the housing presale market has two kinds of options. One is a give-up option of a buyer. The other is developer’s construction abandonment option. According to our model, without heterogeneous expectation and the difference between individual specific default risks, the lending rate offered by the capital provider has no direct effect on the decision of the market choosing. Moreover, the numerical examples also show that when the house buyer’s give-up option value is zero, there is no inducement for the capital provider to enter the housing presale market. Therefore, the presale market entrance level increases. If the value of the construction developer’ abandonment option is zero, the capital provider will offer the construction loan to a developer in the presale market. Hence, lower entrance level of the presale market occurs.

    摘要 I Abstract II 誌謝 III CONTENTS IV LIST OF TABLES VI Chapter 1 Introduction 1 Chapter2 Literature Review 5 2.1 Housing Market 5 2.2 Abandonment Option and Give-up Option 7 Chapter3 The Model 8 3.1 Case1: No Capital Provider 9 3.1.1At t= 1: Buyer’s give-up decision. 10 3.1.2 At t= 1: Developer’s abandonment decision. 10 3.1.3 At t= 0: Buyer’s decision on acceptance of the presale contract. 11 3.1.4 At t= 0: Developer’s decision in presale method or spot sale method. 13 3.2 Case2: Loan between a developer and a capital provider 16 3.2.1 At t= 1: Buyer’s give-up decision. 17 3.2.2 At t= 1: Developer’s abandonment and pay back decision. 17 3.2.3 At t= 0: Capital provider’s decision on loaning in presale or spot sale market. 19 3.2.4 At t= 0: Buyer’s decision on acceptance of the presale contract. 21 3.2.5 At t= 0: Developer’s decision in presale method or spot sale method. 23 3.3 Case3: Loan between a buyer and a capital provider 26 3.3.1 At t= 2: Capital provider’s decision on lending. 26 3.3.2 At t= 1: Buyer’s give-up decision. 27 3.3.3 At t= 1: Developer’s abandonment decision. 28 3.3.4 At t=0: Capital provider’s lending decision. 28 3.3.5 At t= 0: Buyer’s decision on acceptance of the presale contract. 29 3.3.6 At t= 0: Developer’s decision in presale method or spot sale method. 30 3.4 Case4: Loan with all parties 33 3.4.1 At t= 2: Capital provider’s decision on lending. 33 3.4.2 At t= 1: Buyer’s give-up decision. 34 3.4.3 At t= 1: Developer’s abandonment decision. 35 3.4.4 At t= 0: Buyer’s decision on acceptance of the presale contract. 36 3.4.5 At t= 0: Developer’s decision in presale method or spot sale method. 37 3.4.6 At t= 0: Capital provider’s decision on loaning in presale or spot sale market. 38 Chapter4 Numerical Examples 42 Chapter5 Conclusion 48 Abbreviation 50 Reference 51

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