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研究生: 陳國祥
Chen, Guo-Xiang
論文名稱: 台灣上市公司股票交易活動與股票報酬率之相關性--以製造業類股為例
The Relation between the Trading Activity and Stock Return in the Taiwan Stock Market ---In the Case of Manufacture Industries
指導教授: 許溪南
Hsu, Hsi-Nan
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 企業管理學系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 2002
畢業學年度: 90
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 63
中文關鍵詞: 週轉率變異股票流動性成交量變異股票報酬率相似無關迴歸模型
外文關鍵詞: variation of turnover, SUR, variation of trading volume, liquidity, stock return
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  • 摘 要
    過去,許多針對股票流動性大小與股票報酬間相關性的研究發現,流動性較低的股票,往往必須付出較高的報酬,始能獲得投資人的青睞。因此在股票流動性與其報酬間往往具有顯著的負向關係。而在風險驅避的假設之下,理性的投資人理應希望投資標的之流動性不會有太大的變化,因此對於流動性變化較高的股票,投資人希望得到較高的報酬作為補償。本研究假設股票流動性的變異程度與其報酬率間應具有正向的關係。本研究以股票之周轉率以及成交量作為流動性之替代變數,探討流動性以及流動性變異與股票報酬間之關係。然而本研究的實證分析發現,相對於以上的假設,在控制了規模、淨值市價比以及成交量和周轉率的大小後,台灣上市公司製造業族群中,部分產業其股票報酬與股票流動性的變異間存在有顯著負向關係;而股票的流動性與報酬率間呈反向關係,此與過去的文獻相一致。

    Abstract
    Past literature on the relationship between the liquidity and the stock return showed that in order to attract the investors, the stocks with lower liquidity have to give more premium to the investor. That is there exists a strong negative relationship between the liquidity and return. Under the risk-adverse world, the rational investors should hope that there wouldn’t be higher variation in liquidity. With the higher variation, the investors require to gain more premium for compensation. This paper hypothesizes the positive relationship between the variation of liquidity and the return. We use turnover and trading volume as the proxies of liquidity. Evidence reveals that there is a negative relation between the liquidity and return in part of the manufacture industries of the Taiwan stock market after controlling the size, book-to-market ratio, trading volume and turnover. However, the variation of liquidities are negatively correlated with stock returns.

    目 錄 摘要……………………………………………………………….……………....I 致謝…………………………………………………………………………..…III 目錄…………………………………………………………………………..…IV 表目錄………………………………………………………………………..….V 第一章 緒論……………………………………..……….….……………...1 第一節 研究背景與動機………….…………………………………..1 第二節 研究目的……………………………………….……………..3 第三節 研究流程與架構……………………………………….……..4 第二章 文獻探討………………………………………..….....…………....5 第一節 流動性的定義與重要性…………………………...…………5 第二節 流動性與預期報酬率……………………………...…………7 第三節 交易活動與預期報酬率………………………….....………13 第四節 文獻小結………………………………………….....………15 第三節 研究方法與設計………………………………………...……….16 第一節 研究資料…………………………………………….……....16 第二節 變數定義與衡量…………………………………….………18 第三節 研究分析方法……………………………………….………22 第四節 研究限制…………………………………………….………30 第四章 實證結果與分析………………………………………...……….32 第一節 相似無關迴歸模型 (SUR ) 適用性之檢定…….....………32 第二節 相似無關迴歸模型 (SUR ) 實證結果分析….....…………39 第五章 結論與建議……………………...………………………………..59 第一節 研究結論……………………………………………..……...59 第二節 研究建議………………………………………….…………63 參考文獻………………………………………………………………...….….64 表 目 錄 表4-1 以「成交量」為流動性替代變數之SUR模型VIF統計量……….…34 表4-2 以「周轉率」為流動性替代變數之SUR模型VIF統計量………….35 表4-3 迴歸殘差常態分配檢定表……………………………………….……..36 表4-4 以「成交量」為替代變數之各迴歸殘差Pearson Correlation Coefficient檢定分析表………………………………………….………..…………37 表4-5 以「周轉率」為替代變數之各迴歸殘差Pearson Correlation Coefficient檢定分析表………………………………………….…………..………38 表4-6 公司規模效應分析表…………………………………………….…….41 表4-7 淨值市價比效應分析表………………………………………….…….42 表4-8 公司規模效應與淨值市價比效應分析表……………………….…….43 表4-9 以「成交量」為流動性替代變數之流動性效應分析表……….…….45 表4-10 成交量、公司規模、淨值市價比效應分析表………………….…….48 表4-11 以「周轉率」為流動性替代變數之流動性效應分析表……….…….49 表4-12 周轉率、公司規模、淨值市價比效應分析表…………………..……50 表4-13 成交量變異效應分析表………………………………………….....….54 表4-14 成交量、成交量變異、規模、淨值市價比效應分析表………..…....55 表4-15 周轉率變異效應分析表…………………………………………..…....56 表4-16 周轉率、周轉率變異、規模、淨值市價比效應分析表……….....….57 表5-1 實證結果彙整表……………………………………………..………....62

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