| 研究生: |
陳大鈞 Chen, Da-Chun |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
國際重大事件對於黃金價格干擾效果影響之研究 The Research of Moderate Effect of Important International Events on the Gold Price |
| 指導教授: |
張淑昭
Chang, Shu-Chao |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 企業管理學系 Department of Business Administration |
| 論文出版年: | 2009 |
| 畢業學年度: | 98 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 61 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 黃金價格 、國際事件 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | The price of gold, international event |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:83 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
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摘要
2007年美國房地產泡沫化,從美國本土爆發出來的次級房貸至2009年全球性的金融危機,引發一連串全球金融震盪,這些不斷發生的事件對於全世界的經濟體系造成了極大的震撼。而黃金的功能一直是有別於其他貴金屬商品,除了擁有商品、儲蓄、投資等功能,更重要的是,黃金具有貨幣角色的特性,在1944 年Bretton Woods 協定的條款中,黃金成為國際貨幣的一種,大家開始相當重視其價值。
研究主要探討國際事件對於黃金價格的影響,將樣本期間訂為2000年之2010年一月止,建立多元回歸並導入虛擬變數探討當國際重大事件發生時,透過之前學者們所提出的文獻來歸納出對於影響黃金價格之變動因素如:原油價格、白銀價格、以及利率等,分別作出探討。觀察影響黃金價格的因素是否有一致性影響,並且去測試黃金價格是否產生顯著性的影響。而實證結果如下:
結論一: 2000-2010年,白銀跟黃金呈現長期穩定正向關係,不會受到國際事件的影響而具有干擾效果。
結論二 : 2000-2010年,國際原油與黃金呈現長期穩定正向關係,在2006年後的國際事件的影響對於彼此關係具有干擾作用。
結論三: 2000-2010年,黃金價格與匯率具有顯著影響,除了06年外匯存底事件具有干擾效果其餘並不影響。
結論四: 2000-2010年,黃金價格與利率呈現長期穩定正向關係,並且國際事件並不具有干擾作用。
Abstract
Since 2007 American real estate bubble, the Sumbprime mortgages in U.S.A. lead to the global financial crisis in 2009, which cause a series of financial crises. These events have caused great shock to the economic system of the whole world constantly. The function of the gold has been different from other noble metals, goods all the time. The more important thing is the gold has played the monetary role. According to Bretton Woods protocol in 1944, the gold becomes one kind of convertible foreign exchange, people begin to pay more attention to its value.
This research mainly probes into the impact of international events on the price of gold. The sample is during 2000 to 2010, by setting up pluralism, to probe into when the international major events happen. To sum up the variable factor which influences the price of gold by referencing the related literature, for instance, Crude oil price, price of silver, and interest rate, etc. Whether there is consistency influence in the factor effects the price of gold, and influence of the dominance. To test more directly whether the price of gold has positive impact. And the result is as follows:
Result 1: In 2000-2010, the gold price and international silver price are positive related, and the international events do not influence each other's relation.
Result 2: In 2000-2010, the gold price and international crude oil price are positive related, and in 2006 the international events will influence each other's relation.
Result 3: In 2000-2010, the gold price and exchange rate have significant influence, and influence each other's relation in 2006 China have the most foreign exchange.
Result 4: In 2000-2010, the gold price and interest rate are significant positive impact and the international events do not influence each other's relation.
二.中文部份
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二、 英文部份
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校內:2020-12-31公開