本研究主要目的為應用集水區水平衡之概念，探討降雨入滲補注對坡地崩塌之影響性。首先，利用兩種水平衡方法來推估其降雨時可能產生之地下水的入滲補注量，(1)為利用河川流量歷線法與基流推估模式來推估其河川基流量，視為基流量為其地下水的入滲補注量；(2)為利用未飽和層土壤水平衡法，主要考慮降雨、入滲、逕流、蒸發散及地下水補注的相互關聯系統。本研究亦利用土壤水平衡模式推估之地下水補注係數與經濟部水利署繪製之地下水降雨補注係數圖之結果進行比較校正，並討論土壤水平衡模式與河川流量歷線基流推估模式之地下水降雨補注係數推估驗證。另外，本研究亦使用海生法之機率點繪法來推估研究區域水文頻率，分析其降雨頻率及使用對數皮爾森第三型分佈法探討研究地區暴雨頻率。其中，應用STEDWIN邊坡穩定軟體進行邊坡穩定穩感度分析，分別以不同邊坡坡度來探討降雨量對邊坡穩定之影響性，進而由降雨頻率及暴雨頻率機率圖探討其發生臨界崩塌之機率。最後以清水溪流域做一坡地穩定實例探討。
　　研究結果顯示，桶頭地區利用基流推估模式經穩定低流分析後，所推估之年平均地下水降雨補注係數為7.95%；而利用區域土壤水平衡模式所推估之年平均地下水降雨補注係數為8.70%；故利用兩種推估模式所求之結果相近。另外，利用土壤水平衡模式推估清水溪流域地下水降雨補注係數，與經濟部水利署所繪製之水文地質圖結果相近。本研究針對邊坡性質因降雨之影響可能造成之不穩定因子，利用STEDWIN邊坡穩定軟體來進行敏感度分析探討其對邊坡穩定性之影響。根據研究結果顯示，土壤內摩擦角之變異性對邊坡穩定影響最大，邊坡坡度之變異性影響次之，再依次為地下水位抬升、土壤凝聚力及土壤單位重。本研究採用兩種水平衡模式所推估之降雨補注係數平均值，利用STEDWIN邊坡穩定軟體進行邊坡穩定性分析，推估該地區降雨量與安全係數關係圖，得知當坡度提昇至35度時，利用Janbu簡化法分析發現降雨量在400至500公厘時其安全係數即達到1.0而有達到臨界崩塌之虞。在實例探討上，清水溪流域曾發生崩塌之地點，與本研究所推估出之降雨補注係數發現有著相對的關係。

　　The main purpose of this paper is to apply a water-balance conceptual model in Ching-Shui watershed to describe the effect of the groundwater recharge on the slope stability. First of all, the groundwater recharge is estimated by two models, a base-flow model and a soil moisture budget model. Groundwater recharge is obtained by the base-flow model accompanying with the developed recession-curve-displacement method and the base-flow-record method. The soil moisture budget model is established to estimate the infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the watershed. Besides, it is the soil moisture budget model to estimate groundwater recharge coefficient compared with the results from Taiwan groundwater resources map of groundwater flow by the Water Resources Agency. Furthermore, Hazen method with probability plotting position formula and log-pearson type III distribution method are applied to describe the distribution of rainfall. And then the STEDWIN numerical model is used to simulate the effect of various slope angles and precipitation, on the slope stability. Meanwhile, the STEDWIN numerical model is used to estimate the relation between rainfall and safety factor.
　　The results show that the coefficient of groundwater recharges by precipitation in Toong-Tour area is estimated from the soil moisture model and the base-flow model are 8.70% and 7.95%, respectively. The groundwater recharge coefficient from the model is similar to that from the Taiwan groundwater resources map of groundwater flow by the Water Resources Agency. Furthermore, the results of stability analysis indicate that the effect of soil friction angle on the slope stability is the most significant, and the sequences are slope angle, groundwater table, soil cohesion and soil unit weight. In our simulation results, it shows when the slope angle increase to 35ﾟand rainfall is over 400 mm. The slope failure is occurred. Finally, in a case study of Ching-Shui watershed the zone of the potential slope failure area shows that it is highly related to the groundwater recharge coefficient in such area.

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