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研究生：	林玟君 Lin, Wen-Chun
論文名稱：	資訊不確定性,盈餘管理與公司績效 Information Uncertainty, Earnings Management and Firm Performance
指導教授：	張紹基 Chang, Shao-Chi
學位類別：	博士 Doctor
系所名稱：	管理學院 - 國際企業研究所 Institute of International Business
論文出版年：	2009
畢業學年度：	97
語文別：	英文
論文頁數：	86
中文關鍵詞：	初次公開發行、資訊不確定性、盈餘管理、長期績效
外文關鍵詞：	Initial Public Offerings, Information Uncertainty, Long-run Performance, Earnings Management
相關次數：	點閱：128 下載：4
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　　過去研究探討初次公開發行公司的盈餘管理與長期股票績效，未有一致性的結論。本研究目的在(1)討論公司盈餘管理的目的與(2)解釋盈餘管理和長期績效的關係時，公司資訊環境的不確定性扮演相當重要的角色。當公司的資訊環境較為不確定時，經理人有較高的動機從事投機性的盈餘管理，因此公開發行時的盈餘管理會與長期績效呈現負相關。相對地，當公司的資訊環境較少不確定時，經理人比較傾向藉由盈餘管理來傳遞私有資訊，因此公開發行時的盈餘管理與長期績效無關聯性。
　　本研究以1990年至2005年間美國初次公開發行的公司為樣本，並分別採用殘差波動性、報酬波動性、交易量、分析師追蹤、分析師預測標準差與預測誤差標準差來衡量公司的資訊不確定性。以資訊不確定性高低來評估投資人識破盈餘管理的困難程度。實證結果顯示：相對具較低（較高）資訊不確定的初次公開發行公司，(1)在初次公開發行時所從事的盈餘管理與現金流量績效呈顯著正相關（無關聯性）；(2)盈餘管理程度與上市後季盈餘宣告的市場反應沒有關聯性（負相關）；且(3)此盈餘管理與上市後的三年長期股票和營運績效亦沒有關聯性（負相關）。以上實證結果與本研究的推論一致。

Prior studies have presented mixed evidence on earnings management of IPO firms and their post-IPO stock performance. This study proposes that the extent of information uncertainty plays an important role in influencing the objectives of IPO issuers in earnings management. It also explains the connection between earnings management and long-run performance. I predict that earnings management is more likely to be a result of managerial opportunism arising when IPO issuers face greater information uncertainty. This is also expected to have a negative relation to post-IPO performance. In contrast, for IPO issuers with a less uncertain information environment, earnings management is more likely to be motivated by information signaling, and, thus, no negative relationship between earnings management and firm performance is expected.
A sample of IPO firms from 1990 to 2005 is collected to test these hypotheses. I use residual volatility, return volatility, trading volume, analyst following, analysts’ forecast standard deviation, and standard deviation of forecast error to identify the information uncertainty of IPO issuers and to assess the difficulty for investors to see through managing earnings. For IPO firms in a less (more) uncertain information environment, (1) the managing earnings are positively related (unrelated) to unmanaged earnings in the subsequent offering year. (2) The managing earnings are irrelevant (negatively associated) with the market reaction to the first quarterly earnings announcement in the subsequent offering year. (3) The managing earnings is unrelated (negatively related) to the long-run performance. These results are consistent with the arguments of this study.

CONTENTS

Abstract..............................................................................................................III
I. Introduction.........................................................................................................1
II. Literature Review...................................................................................................7
  A. Earnings Management in Equity Offerings............................................................................7
  B. Earnings Management and Performance of Equity Offerings............................................................9
  C. Informance Uncertainty............................................................................................10
  D. The Impact of Information Environment Uncertainty on Stock Market.................................................11
  E. Disclosure Strategies and Information Environment Uncertainty.....................................................12
III. Hypotheses........................................................................................................13
IV. Sample, Variable Construction and Methodologies....................................................................15
  A. Sample Design.....................................................................................................15
  B. Variables Measurement.............................................................................................18
  C. Methodologies.....................................................................................................31
V. Empirical Results...................................................................................................38
  A. Earnings management and Underpricing..............................................................................39
  B. Earnings management and Information Uncertainty...................................................................39
  C. The Impact of Information Uncertainty on the Relationship between Earnings Management and Stock Performance.......44
VI. Conslusions........................................................................................................52
References.............................................................................................................54
Figure 1. Time Line....................................................................................................61
Figure 2. Discretionary Current Accruals and Operating Performance Stratified by Information Uncertainty Measures......62
Table 1. Sample Selection..............................................................................................63
Table 2. Sample Distribution...........................................................................................64
Table 3. Descriptive Statistics........................................................................................65
Table 4. Time-series Characteristics of Discretionary Accruals and Operating Performance...............................66
Table 5. Regression of Underpricing on Discretionary Current Accruals..................................................68
Table 6. Discretionary Current Accruals of IPO Firms Stratified by Information Uncertainty Measures....................69
Table 7. Change of Discretionary Current Accruals and Oerating Performance of IPO Firms Stratified by Information
         Uncertainty Measures..........................................................................................71
Table 8. Regression of Post-IPO Industry-adjusted Cash Flow on Discretionary Current Accruals and Information
         Uncertainty...................................................................................................72
Table 9. Regression of Cumulative Abnormal Returns during the Three-day Window around Subsequent Earnings
         Announcements on Discretionary Current Accruals and Information Uncertainty...................................73
Table 10. Regression of Long-run Stock Performance of IPOs on Discretionary Current Accruals...........................74
Table 11. Regression of Long-run Stock Performance of IPOs on Discretionary Current Accruals and Information
          Uncertainty..................................................................................................77
Table 12. Long-run Abnormal Returns Following an IPO Using the Fama-French Three-factor Model..........................81
Table 13. Long-run Abnormal Returns Following an IPO Using the Carhart's Four-factor Model.............................82
Table 14. Regression of Long-run Operating Performacne of IPOs on Discretionary Current Accruals and Information
          Uncertainty..................................................................................................83
                                    

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校內：2019-07-15公開
校外：2019-07-15公開

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