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研究生: 馬山杰
Baasanjav, Enkhbold
論文名稱: Bankruptcy Prediction Model for U.S Telecommunication Network Providers: Study of Financial Data
Bankruptcy Prediction Model for U.S Telecommunication Network Providers: Study of Financial Data
指導教授: 楊曉瑩
Yang, Ann Shawing
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 50
外文關鍵詞: Binary logistic regression, Binary quantile regression, Bankruptcy prediction, Telecommunication carriers
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  • In this study, binary logistic regression and binary quantile regression are used to come up with bankruptcy prediction model for telecommunication carriers’
    bankruptcy illiquidity. The purpose of this research is to find out key determinants of regarding insolvency in telecommunication industry and to evaluate 2 different regressions’ performance. Operating margin, Receivables turnover, Average collection period and Total asset are included in proposed model. Research results show that proposed model with 4 explanatory variables are highly useful to classify and predict firms as bankrupted and survived. ROC and CAP curve indicates that model by binary logistic regression correctly discriminate 94% and 84% respectively and slightly better than binary quantile regression. But binary quantile regression demonstrates more complete estimates for different quantile levels and shows how explanatory variables’ estimations’ move in relative to probability of bankruptcy.

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS II TABLE OF CONTENTS III LIST OF TABLES V LIST OF FIGURES VI CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Research Background. 1 1.1.1 Contextual Background. 1 1.2 Motivation. 2 1.2.1 The Importance of Exploring Bankruptcy Prediction Model. 2 1.3 Research Objective. 3 1.4 Research Gap. 3 1.5 Telecommunication Network Providers’ in USA. 4 1.6 Procedure and Structure of Study. 5 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 7 2.1 Telecommunication Industry and Driving Factors of Business Model. 7 2.1.1 Hypothesis Development. 10 2.2 Bankruptcy Prediction Model. 11 2.2.1 Accounting Based Approach. 13 2.2.2 Market Based Approach. 19 2.2.3 Hybrid Approach. 20 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY 22 3.1 Variables. 22 3.2 Logistic Regression Model. 24 3.3 Binary Quantile Regression Model. 25 3.4 Model Validation and Evaluation. 26 3.4.1 Cumulative Accuracy Profile. 26 3.4.2 Receiver Operating Curve. 27 3.5 Data and Samples. 28 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH RESULTS 30 4.1 Descriptive Statistics. 30 4.2 Pearson Correlation. 33 4.3 Variance Inflation Factor. 34 4.4 Binary Logistic Regression Result. 35 4.5 Binary Quantile Regression Result. 36 4.6 Model Validation and Evaluation. 39 4.6.1 Cumulative Accuracy Profile. 39 4.6.2 Receiver Operating Curve. 41 CHAPTER FIVE CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS 42 5.1 Research Conclusion. 42 5.2 Managerial Implication 45 5.3 Research limitation and future caveat 45 REFERENCES 47

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