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研究生: 翁梓程
Wung, Zi-Cheng
論文名稱: 自組式類神經模糊系統於系統識別與預測之應用
Development of A Self-Organizing Neuro-Fuzzy System for Application to System Modeling and Forecasting
指導教授: 楊世銘
Yang, Shih-Ming
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 航空太空工程學系
Department of Aeronautics & Astronautics
論文出版年: 2009
畢業學年度: 97
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 70
中文關鍵詞: 系統識別預測類神經模糊系統
外文關鍵詞: Neuro-Fuzzy Ssystem, System Identification, Forecasting
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  • 類神經模糊系統結合了類神經網路和模糊系統的優點已經被廣泛應用在各個不同的領域,例如追蹤控制、系統識別、人因工程、震動控制等等,而且都已經有很好的成效。 其中,主要有兩個模糊規則加入類神經模糊系統中:Mamdani和Sugeno的模糊規則。然而,在所有參考的文獻當中,各個文獻所展示的都只有個別單一的規則,而沒有同一個例子分別應用兩種不同模糊規則的文獻。基於想要知道兩種不同規則應用在同一個例子的效果,本文做了一個非線性系統比較的動作。參考Yang et al.(2007)發表的文獻,兩種不同模糊規則的類神經模糊系統都以五層的結構來建構。經由比較的結果,發現Sugeno的類神經模糊系統有較好的逼近效果,因此其被用來做為預測的系統來預測國人的旅遊人數,其中四個因素被用來作為影響因子:國人的年收入、與各國的匯率、各國的消費者物價指數以及歷年來國人去各國的人數趨勢,而結果再度顯示類神經模糊系統有著很好的預測效果。

    The neuro-fuzzy system integrated by neural network and fuzzy system with the capability of adjusting the membership functions and providing the fuzzy inference rules has been proposed in system identification and control. The neuro-fuzzy system in the study has the framework of a five-layer feedforward network configuration: the input layer, the fuzzifier layer, the inference layer, the defuzzifier layer and the output layer. Both Sugeno and Mamdani fuzzy rules are employed in the neuro-fuzzy system to compare their performance in a bench-market nonlinear equation. It is shown that the neuro-fuzzy system with Sugeno fuzzy rules has better accuracy in system identification. Application to forecasting shows that the neuro-fuzzy system has better prediction than neural network. The prediction also offers sensitivity analysis of the simulating data.

    CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ………………………………………………………………………………. i CONTENTS ……………………………………………………………………………….ii LIST OF TABLES……………………………………………………………………...…iv LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………….v CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ………………………………………………..………...…………1 1.1 Motivation ……………………………………………………..……………………1 1.2 Literature Review ……………………….…………………….……………………1 1.3 Outline …………………………………………………………….………………..4 II NEURAL NETWORK AND FUZZY SYSTEM …………………..………………..6 2.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………..………………..6 2.2 Artificial Neural Network ……………………………………..……………………6 2.3 Fuzzy System ………………………………………………………………..…….9 III COMPARISON BETWEEN MAMDANI AND SUGENO FUZZY RULES ……21 3.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………..………………21 3.2 Simulation of System Identification ……………………………….……………...21 3.2.1 Neuro-Fuzzy Model with Mamdani Fuzzy Rules …………………………...21 3.2.2 Neuro-Fuzzy Model with Sugeno Fuzzy Rules ……………...……………...25 3.2.3 Simulation Result ..………….……………………………………………….27 3.3 Conclusion ………………………………………………………….……………..29 IV APPLICATION TO FORECASTING …………..…………………………………36 4.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………………..………36 4.2 Application of Aviation Service on Air Passenger Forecasting……………………36 4.2.1 The Prediction of Single Country ...……………………………..…………...36 4.2.2 The Analysis of Influence Factors …………………………………..……….40 4.3 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………….…..40 V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ……………………………………………..…52 REFERENCES ………………………………………………………………………..…54 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 4.1 The statistics of factors about Canada 42 4.2 The statistics of factors about France 42 4.3 The statistics of factors about Hong Kong 43 4.4 The statistics of factors about Thailand 43 4.5 The statistics of factors about Singapore 44 4.6 The statistics of factors about United States 44 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 The brief sample of artificial neuron 15 2.2 Schematic diagram of a feedforward network 15 2.3 The main types of fuzzy membership function: (1) Triangular, (2) Trapezoidal, (3) Gaussian, and (4) Bell 16 2.4 Operations on fuzzy sets: (a) two fuzzy sets A and B, (b) , (c) , and (d) 17 2.5 The basic architecture of a fuzzy system 18 2.6 Mamdani fuzzy inference system using minimum and maximum for fuzzy AND and OR operations, respectively 19 2.7 Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy model using minimum or product for fuzzy AND operation 20 3.1 The structure of the neuro-fuzzy model with Mamdani fuzzy rules 30 3.2 The structure of the neuro-fuzzy model with Sugeno fuzzy rules 31 3.3 The initial membership functions (a) and the final resultant membership functions (b) on the neuro-fuzzy system with Mamdani fuzzy rules 32 3.4 The initial membership functions (a) and the final resultant membership functions (b) on the neuro-fuzzy system with Sugeno fuzzy rules 33 3.5 The outputs between the actual plant and neuro-fuzzy models with (a) Mamdani fuzzy rules and (b) Sugeno fuzzy rules 34 3.6 The difference between output of plant and output of neuro-fuzzy model in Sugeno and Mamdani fuzzy rules 35 4.1 The forecasting of passengers to Canada 45 4.2 The forecasting of passengers to France 45 4.3 The forecasting of passengers to Hong Kong 46 4.4 The forecasting of passengers to Thailand 46 4.5 The forecasting of passengers to Singapore 47 4.6 The forecasting of passengers to United States 47 4.7 The forecasting of passengers to Canada with Gaussian membership function 48 4.8 The forecasting of nationals to Canada with analysis of factors 48 4.9 The forecasting of nationals to France with analysis of factors 49 4.10 The forecasting of nationals to Hong Kong with analysis of factors 49 4.11 The forecasting of nationals to Thailand with analysis of factors 50 4.12 The forecasting of nationals to Singapore with analysis of factors 50 4.13 The forecasting of nationals to United States with analysis of factors 51

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