文心蘭為台灣總價值最高之外銷切花，根據行政院農業委員會統計，2020年台灣文心蘭切花的出口金額已達到1631萬美元，較排序第二的蝴蝶蘭切花出口金額高出275萬美元。然而氣候變遷影響溫度分布與造成極端氣候，文心蘭產質量皆會受其影響。為降低氣候變遷的負面效應及維持產質量之穩定度，研究環境因子對文心蘭產質量及開花速率的影響有其必要性。目前相關的研究試驗多在絕對溫度控制的溫室裡進行，與農民實際栽種在無溫度控制並與外在大氣接觸的網室相差甚大。有別於溫室內環境因子，網室內環境因子需要考量空間異質性的影響，因此使用網室資料後，需納入因與外在大氣接觸產生之空間異質性，故以空間模型作為研究方法。此外，本研究亦首創文心蘭檸檬綠之開花速率模型，以幫助後續預測文心蘭生長周期。
研究場域為台灣文心蘭主要產地--台中新社。文心蘭切花資料來自132盆檸檬綠品種。本研究中評估文心蘭產質量的變數包含花梗長、分叉數、花朵數與開花速率。花梗長越長、分叉數及花朵數越多，代表品質越佳；開花速率越高代表所需開花時間越短，產量越高。開花速率是以可見花芽至花開七成(切花日)的天數之倒數定義。考量文心蘭生長週期，選擇以假球莖影響及開花關鍵期(切花日前17週)之環境因子(溫度與光積值)分析文心蘭質量與開花速率。
結果顯示僅花梗長及分叉數具有空間相關，即鄰近花盆的花梗長及分叉數會較為相近；花朵數則無前述現象。模型配適部分，花梗長和分叉數的最適模型為空間誤差模型(SEM)，表示有其他未納入並具有空間相關性的因子，此結果符合農業資料特性；花朵數的最適模型為空間自變量滯後模型(SLX)，表示花朵數受鄰近環境因子影響。在環境因子的相關性上：(1)花梗長與累積日均溫及低光照(一日光積值小於3.394 mol∙m^(-2)∙d^(-1)的天數)呈正相關，與低日夜溫差(小於5℃)的天數則呈負相關；(2)分叉數與高日夜溫差(大於10℃)的天數及高光照(一日光積值大於7.832 mol∙m^(-2)∙d^(-1)的天數)呈正相關、與累積日均溫則呈負相關；(3)花朵數與累積日均溫及高光照呈負相關。綜上，文心蘭偏好日均溫低於29℃及高日夜溫差(大於10℃)。
由開花速率模型結果，推估文心蘭之生長基礎溫度為6℃，表示低溫延緩生長，而若溫度低於6℃，文心蘭則會停止生長。此結果建議冷天時適當的加溫可避免文心蘭停止生長。開花速率模型推估開花所需累積度日為1723 ℃∙d^(-1)，表示自該切花具有可見花芽開始，每日日均溫累積滿1723 ℃時將可以切花(開花比例達到七成)。以上結果可做為文心蘭栽種之網室環境條件設定參考，或應用於推估文心蘭質量和生產時間。

Among the exported cut flowers of Taiwan, Oncidium has the highest economic value. It has been reported that in 2020, 1371 tons of Oncidium cut flowers with a total value of US$16.31 million were exported from Taiwan. However, climate change could cause extreme weather and raising temperature, which will influence crop yields and Orchids cultivations negatively. To maintain the growth of Oncidium, it is crucial to understand the influences of the environmental conditions on the quality and production of Oncidium. Previous studies that focused on the effects of environmental factors on Oncidium were mostly conducted in greenhouses, which had stable environmental conditions and were highly dissimilar to net houses where Oncidiums are cultivated. Although a few studies attempted to employ environmental data collected from net houses, the spatial characteristics of these data have not been invesitgated yet. Thus, this study aimed to collect environmental data in a net house and analyzed the relationship between the environmental factors and Oncidium flower quality by utilizing seven spatial models. Furthermore, the flower harvest of Oncidesa Gower Ramsey ‘Honey Angel’ was studied by building a thermal time model its flowering rate.
Data were collected from a net house in Xinshe, Taichung, Taiwan from 2020 April to 2021 June. Oncidium data were gathered from 132 pots and environmental data were obtained from 44 sensors. Important variables of Oncidium were chosen: (1) Longer spike length, more inflorescence branch number and more floret number represent better flower quality; (2) higher flowering rate represents shorter flowering time and more production, in which the flowering rate is the reciprocal of the number of days between visible inflorescence (VI) and 70% of bloomed flowers. Environmental data comprised temperature and light. According to the Oncidium growing stages that affect flower quality, environmental conditions during the 17 weeks before the cutting date were calculated into explanatory variables.
Results showed that spike length and inflorescence branch number were spatially autocorrelated, but floret number was unexpectedly not spatially autocorrelated. Spatial Error Model (SEM) best described the data of spike length and inflorescence branch number, indicates the existence of omitted spatially autocorrelated variables, which is practical with agronomic information; the spatial-lagged X Model (SLX) best described the floret number, which implies influence from nearby environmental conditions. In general, better flower quality is associated with average daytime temperature no larger than 29℃, and day/night temperature difference larger than 10℃ according to the total effects. From the result of thermal time model, the base temperature of Oncidium was projected at 6℃, indicated lower temperature would postpone its development and it would stop developing below 6℃. This suggests heating in cold weather could prevent flower from stop developing. The thermal time from VI to 70% flowering was estimated at 1723 degree days, implied the Oncidium flower would be ready to cut when the daily average daytime temperature adds up to 1723 degree after VI. These findings show promise to provide indications for improving the environment inside net houses for better Oncidium flower quality and to estimate the Oncidium flower production time.

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