我國市區道路中常有汽機車與行人間的交通事故發生，本文稱此現象為「人車交通事故」。本文主要研究目的在於嘗試以以街廓、土地使用、交通環境等中觀尺度 (Mesoscopic) ，探討人車交通事故與建成環境與交通環境的關係，並藉此尺度建立人車交通事故機率模型與建構分析之架構。
據前人研究，多數國外研究近年逐漸從微觀交通工程尺度轉變為由巨觀 (Mesoscopic) 的都市尺度或交通政策尺度以及中觀的建成環境、交通環境探討人車交通事故議題。也由國外研究中得知影響人車交通事故之變數有：土地使用分區、交通基礎設施、道路路網配置、密度等。而我國分析人車交通事故以微觀 (Microscopic) 交通工程尺度分析交通號誌、道路標線、交通流或路型設計等對於人車交通事故的影響。
然而因我國缺乏中觀尺度分析此議題原因之一為缺乏官方建成與交通環境數據，也較難以調查，如：土地使用、商業活動等建成環境，以及車道被占用情形、步行道路被占用情形等交通環境現況。另外，我國人車交通事故研究中少有整合步行環境與車行環境。
為了彌補研究缺口，本研究嘗試由中觀尺度探討我國建成環境與交通環境對於人車交通事故的影響，建立分析人車交通事故的分析架構，並探討不同建成與交通環境中，汽機車與行人共同在道路通行之曝光量 (Exposure) (本文稱之為「人車共處曝光量」或「曝光量」) 與人車交通事故機率 (本文簡稱為「事故機率」)之機率模型。同時視人車交通事故為一機率事件，並令其服從二項分配。
由文獻回顧，蒐集之中觀尺度變數包括：車道規劃寬度、車道被占用寬度、車道可通行寬度、道路連結度、步行環境(人行道、騎樓、路肩)可通行寬度、土地使用分區、土地混合使用程度、商業活動等。商業活動則是以爬蟲獲取興趣點 (POI, Point of Interest) 衡量，土地混合使用程度以亂度熵計算，道路連結度則是以空間型構法得出，也從前人研究中得出不同土地使用及商業活動之影響範圍。
研究範圍為近年人車交通事故議題備受矚目之臺南市，挑選於東區崇學里與崇信里做為研究範圍，共設置 419 個分析點位。為了建立以中觀尺度為分析之切入點，故不考慮交通號誌、標線、交通流、路型設計、交通結構等微觀交通工程尺度變數之影響。
本研究分為四階段進行。蒐集資料後，空間分析先探討交通環境面向的車行與步行環境被占用寬度是否有空間聚集性，了解建成環境是否會影響交通還境的供給；接著再探討人車交通事故的聚集性外，也以圖面分析建成環境與交通環境影響人車交通事故發生與群聚。兩者假設皆以全域型及地域型空間自相關：Moran’s I 、 G-statistics 以及 LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) 驗證，再由核密度估計 (Kernel Density Estimation) 進行圖面分析。再以因素分析 (Factor Analysis)探討研究範圍屬性，以解構研究範圍特性，得出眾多變數中能以分群為四個主成份以解釋研究範圍。最後一階段為實證研究，將曝光量與事故機率帶入模型中，並以建成環境作為曝光量之自變數、事故機率則以交通環境為自變數，以探討機率模型。然因待校估之參數過多，故以貝氏定理 (Bayes’ Theorem) 為基礎的馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法 (MCMC, Markov Chain Monte Carlo) 得出各參數值。最後再將模型應用於研究範圍中，進行模擬以了解曝光量與事故機率等分布、商業活動模擬以及模擬市場用地周邊交通環境整頓之情形。
在交通環境變數影響中，得出影響事故機率最多之變數為車道規劃寬度，而最能有效平衡事故機率之變數為騎樓可通行寬度；曝光量中，令研究範圍每路段基本曝光量為 1,000 旅次量，而曝光量會根據周邊建成環境有異：建成環境中以市場用地增加最多，增加約 2,565 人車共處旅次、便利商店或麵包坊為最少，增加約為 940 人車共處旅次。
最後由模型進行三種模擬：人車共處曝光量與人車交通事故機率於研究範圍內之分布、商業活動(如銀行、便利商店或麵包坊)經營模式更動，以及導入騎樓暢通計畫與人車共享概念之規劃，整頓市場周邊交通環境。由人車共處曝光量、人車交通事故機率分布與人車交通事故等核密度圖交叉分析，了解並非有發生人車交通事故之地點才有發生事故的機率，需與曝光量互動才構成交通事故的可能，而商業活動經營模式更動之模擬更是加強了此論述。在模擬騎樓暢通計畫以及人車共享空間兩種規劃設計概念後，得出兩者可降低人車交通事故機率，並提升可容納之曝光量。模擬中，與人車共享空間概念模擬相比，騎樓暢通計畫事故機率較低，且可容納之曝光量普遍也較高，然而市場用地周邊現況較貼近人車共享空間概念，故建議未來在規劃設計中採納人車共享空間概念，適時設置街道家具、縮減車道可通行寬度、鼓勵行人與汽機車互動等，降低汽機車行駛速度、增加道路的交流功能等，以降低人車交通事故發生風險。
綜整本文之貢獻，(1) 本研究突破過去研究設計尺度，選擇以中觀尺度探討人車交通事故議題，故在研究設計如研究尺度與架構、變數取得與模型建立等。 (2) 本研究求得知模型因自變數較多元，難以藉由傳統機率分析得出，故採用相當精準且快速的貝氏定理與 MCMC 校估人車交通事故機率模型。 (3) 整體研究架構以嚴謹之空間分析、辨別研究範圍屬性及建立模型並應用，以供未來相關研究可參考之架構。 (4) 分析結果也藉由模型求得與應用，得出影響人車共處曝光量與人車交通事故機率之變數及比例。另外於由模型應用後得到商業活動經營改變之模擬與市場周邊環境整頓，並提出規劃設計實質建議。

This study investigates Pedestrian-vehicle Crashes (PVCs) from an urban aspect, encompassing the built and traffic environments, and aims to construct a PVC probit model. PVCs, a common occurrence on urban roads in Taiwan, lack comprehensive analysis from an urban aspect. This study addresses this gap by analyzing PVCs with an urban lens. The study area is Chongxin and Chongxue Village in East District, Tainan City, Taiwan. The analysis consists of two stages: preliminary analysis and model construction.
The preliminary analysis employs Moran’s I, G-statistics, and Local Indicators of Spatial Association to verify spatial autocorrelation. Kernel Density Estimation uncovers clustering degrees and relationships among occupied driveways, occupied walkways, and PVCs locations. Factor Analysis explores the characteristics of the study area. Thirteen variables, determined through Factor Analysis, include planned and occupied driveway width, accessible driveway width, road connectivity, accessible walking path width (pedestrian, arcade, and road shoulder), market land use, and business activities (banks, convenience stores, bakeries), influencing PVC occurrence.
The PVC model employs Binomial Distribution. The Bayes’ Theorem, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method, calibrates the model. With model establishment and application, outcomes reveal variable impact on exposure and probability; additionally, they indicate how interaction between exposure and probability has the pivotal influence on PVCs. The methodology, findings, and model application collectively contribute to an enhanced understanding of PVCs from an urban aspect. Moreover, the study outcomes offer recommendations for enhancing traffic safety through urban-focused interventions that manage both built and traffic environments.

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