| 研究生: |
張菁娟 Chang, Ching-chuan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
中國貨幣政策對中國股市影響之分析 Impacts of Monetary Policy on Stock Market in China |
| 指導教授: |
康榮寶
Kang, Jung-Pao 簡金成 Chien, Chin-Chen |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 高階管理碩士在職專班(EMBA) Executive Master of Business Administration (EMBA) |
| 論文出版年: | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度: | 96 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 81 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 傳導機制 、貨幣供應量 、貨幣政策 、股市 、利率 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Monetary policy, money supply, conduction mechanism, interest rate, stock market |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:192 下載:0 |
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本論文主要目的在探討中國人民銀行在執行貨幣政策,或進行宏觀調控時,對股市的影響。所以,本論文將根據中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會的職能,參酌中國總體經濟環境、外匯政策與貨幣環境,分析探討中國人民銀行所執行貨幣政策或宏觀調控政策是否合宜?且在執行某些特定貨幣政策或宏觀調控政策時,對於股市所產生的影響。中國由於採行幾近固定匯率政策,在鉅額貿易順差條件下,外匯存底大量累積。因此,迄今中國貨幣政策或宏觀調控政策,多數與解決流動性過熱環境有關。按通貨過熱產生許多問題,其中包括股市狂飆、房地產行情節節高升、原物料價格狂漲、通貨膨脹問題不可扼、負利率環境居高不下。所以,連溫家寶總理也感嘆,中國人沒有豬肉吃的窘狀。中國為了解決通貨過熱問題,迄今止,最常使用的工具包括:提高存款準備金率、加息、選擇性的宏觀調控(例如,針對水泥、鋼鐵、房地產的宏觀調控)。這些工具是否有效?從迄今為止,中國股市一見到人民銀行祭出加息或提高存款準備金率,多數以「利空出盡」反應,股市多數當天上漲,作為一些虎視投資者進入股市的最佳時點。這種現象,到底從經濟學、財務學的角度,具有那些意義?本論文認為,中國由於外匯存底過當所導致的貨幣環境,在目前中國銀行體系下,是否可以透過適當貨幣政策來達到調控的預期目的。
This study aims to examine the impacts of monetary and currency policy on stock market in China. China has faced extremely hot monetary market situation resulting in bubble effects of stock market and real estate market. How to slow down bubble effects becomes a very important issue in China. This study investigates how monetary policy and currency policy has been executed in China and summarizes the effects of those monetary and currency policy on stock market. Based on the observation in this study, the China government does have difficulties efficiently in resolving the buddle issues. This study contends that China government should push harder in monetary and currency policy. That is, government should have a larger scale of adjustment in such interest rate policy and currency appreciation policy. Although China Investment Company policy is a very strategic policy, China should balance international political relationship before China conduct aggressive investment strategies, including merger and acquisition of big brand name in the world.
一、 中文部分
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3. 林秋靜(2002),「兩岸股市互動關係之研究--門檻模型」,義守大學管理科學研究所未出版碩士論文。
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8. 徐國鈞(1996),「臺灣金融類股價及非金融類股價與總體經濟因素關聯性之實証研究」,國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
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14. 陳仲仁(2001),「半導體產業資訊與其股價關聯性之研究」,淡江大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文。
15. 徐慶兆(2002),「不同經濟基礎下總體經濟變數與股市之關聯性研究」,淡江大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文。
16. 游梓堯(2001),「美國股市與台灣股市關連性研究─VAR、GARCH與灰關聯分析之應用」,國立台灣科技大學資訊管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
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20. 張峻穎(1999),「總體經濟變數與類股指數互動關聯之實證研究」,國立台灣科技大學管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
21. 楊筆琇(1998),「台灣電子股指數與美國股價指數互動關係之實證研究」,國立成功大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
22. 葉鳳琴(2002),「三大法人投資行為與加權股價指數互動關係之探討」,淡江大學財務金融研究所未出版碩士論文。
23. 曾林鈴(2002),「匯率對股價的影響—以台灣、香港、大陸B股市場為例」,國立成功大學企業管理學研究所未出版碩士論文。
24. 繆燕鴦(2001),「亞太地區貨幣政策與股市報酬之關聯性分析---以向量自我迴歸及共整合模型為例」,中原大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。
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26. 蕭為瀚(2001),「美國與台灣主要股價指數連動關係之實證研究」,淡江大學美國研究所未出版碩士論文。
27. 魏志鴻(2001),「台灣股市六大類股間關聯性之研究」,實踐大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文。聶建中、林景春、曾義明(2002),「台灣產業外移大陸與台灣經濟之互動影響」,台灣金融財務季刊。
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校內:2066-08-04公開