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研究生: 陳庭歡
Chen, Ting-Huan
論文名稱: 探討通勤者對於高鐵通勤困難度及願付價格之研究
Exploring the Difficulty and Willingness to Pay of High-Speed Rail for Commuters
指導教授: 鄭永祥
Cheng, Yung-Hsiang
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 交通管理科學系
Department of Transportation and Communication Management Science
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 94
中文關鍵詞: 台灣高鐵通勤者願付價格Rasch模式
外文關鍵詞: Taiwan High Speed Rail, Commuter, Rasch, Willingness to Pay
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  • 台灣高鐵自2007年通車後,大幅縮短台灣西部各大城市間的旅行時間,亦成為跨縣市通勤者運具選擇之一,但高鐵原先設計之服務對象為城際運輸之旅客,較無法顧及通勤者注重的車站可及性、即時性等服務,而造成高鐵通勤者的困難,故在考量通勤者的通勤品質時,除了考慮主要運具之服務品質之外,亦須考量次要運具之服務品質以及與主要運具之整合性。
    本研究利用試題反應理論之Rasch模式來量測通勤者在使用高鐵通勤之整體過程中所遇到的困難,包含從居住地至工作地的整體運輸過程,並帶入跨理論模式的行為改變階段模型,找出不同行為階段的通勤者其認知困難之差異,同時探討不同社經特性之通勤者之認知差異,接著結合個體選擇模式,透過敘述性偏好來了解通勤者使用高鐵作為通勤主要運具之意願,以及其願意付出多少成本來減少通勤困難度。
    研究結果顯示高鐵站到目的地的階段是通勤者認為較困難,且其對於運具選擇偏好有較大的影響,而投入資源於此段階段的改善成效顯著,通勤者也願意付出較高的願付價格來減少此階段的旅行時間,故建議台灣高鐵需加強高鐵站到目的地的可及性,而初期可針對大眾運輸網路較不完整的雲嘉南地區進行改善,中期可改善大眾運輸較為完善的台北、新竹與台中地區,而有大眾運輸發展潛力的桃園地區則建議可持續投入資源改善。至於高鐵成本的部分,台灣高鐵可針對非持續期的每週通勤者實施價格策略,以吸引其他運具通勤者轉而使用高鐵通勤,若將通勤成本下降10%,將會有12.07%的其他運具通勤者轉移至高鐵。透過本研究之結果,可針對不同族群的人實施差別取價及差異化服務,並提供台灣高鐵未來制定策略之參考。

    The study aims to understand how commuters perceive difficulty of THSR commuting and differences in perceived difficulty between different groups of commuters using the Rasch model. The study further attempts to understand the preferences of commuters who differ in perceived difficulty and the prices they are willing to pay for less difficulty by mixed logit model. In order to improve the accessibility and mobility of THSR, we consider access stage, on-HSR stage and egress stage of entire THSR commuting as indicators for evaluating THSR commuting services. We use the Transtheroretical Model’s ‘stages of changes’ framework to explore the potential commuters for increased THSR commuting. The results shows that egress stage is difficult by the commuters perceive and to have a greater impact on their preference. As committing resources in this stage can make significant improvement, only short-term commitment is required for counties with less complete public transport networks. In addition, cities with more developed public transport, commitment has a .significant effect in both the initial and mid-stages. With the potential area, continuously developing a public transport network will also be expected to effectively lower the difficulty of THSR commuting.
    Regarding to price, the study finds that the weekly commuters are more flexible and sensitive about prices and about 12.07% of commuters will shift from other mode to THSR when the cost of THSR drops 10%. It is hoped that the study can provide some insights for Taiwan High Speed Rail in strategy adjustment, improvement and development.

    摘要 i 誌謝 vi 圖目錄 ix 表目錄 ix 第一章 緒論 1 1.1研究背景與動機 1 1.2研究目的 3 1.3研究範圍 4 第二章 文獻回顧 6 2.1通勤者行為分析 6 2.2跨理論模式 9 2.2.1行為改變階段(Stages of change) 9 2.2.2改變過程 (The process of change) 11 2.2.3自我效能 (Self-efficacy) 12 2.2.4決策權衡 (Decisional Balance) 13 2.2.5跨理論模式之應用 13 2.3小結 14 第三章 研究方法 15 3.1試題反應理論(Item Response Theory , IRT)15 3.1.1二元計分模式 16 3.1.2多元計分模式 17 3.1.3 Rasch模式假設檢驗 18 3.2個體選擇模式 21 3.2.1多項羅吉特模式 22 3.2.2混合羅吉特模式 23 3.3研究流程 24 第四章 調查內容 26 4.1困難度問項 26 4.2替選方案屬性水準值設計 29 4.3行為改變階段與社經變數問項 35 4.3.1行為改變階段問項 35 4.3.2通勤方式及工作狀況問項 36 4.3.3社經變數問項 37 4.4調查方式 38 第五章 實證分析 40 5.1敘述性統計分析 40 5.2 Rasch模式分析 44 5.2.1困難度分析 44 5.2.2群體差異評估 50 5.2.3試題功能差異(DIF)評估 55 5.2.4 投入與改善效果 59 5.3混合羅吉特分析 63 5.3.1模式變數設定 63 5.3.2混合羅吉特模式分析結果 66 5.4混合羅吉特分群分析 68 5.4.1模式變數設定 68 5.4.2混合羅吉特分群模式分析結果 71 5.5願付價格分析 73 5.6彈性分析 74 5.7敏感度分析 76 第六章 結論與建議 78 6.1結論 78 6.2建議 81 6.3研究貢獻 83 6.4研究限制與未來研究方向 84 參考文獻 85 附錄一 問卷 91

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