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研究生: 蔡妮軒
Cai, Ni Shiuan
論文名稱: 應用新產品擴散於世代替代性產品轉換
The Study on the Product Rollovers in Different Generations – the Application of New Product Diffusion Model
指導教授: 王泰裕
Wang, Tai-Yue
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 工業與資訊管理學系
Department of Industrial and Information Management
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 60
中文關鍵詞: 新產品擴散模式世代產品需求轉移產品生命週期產品定價
外文關鍵詞: Product diffusion model, Demand shifting, Product life cycle, Pricing
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  • 在全球化的消費市場上,市場上存在的產品不斷推陳出使新產品的生命週期減短,而連帶著加快產品汰換的速度。當產品已不符合潮流但仍為受大眾喜愛時,企業往往會推出新世代的產品,以確保並掌握自身企業產品的市佔率。此時,企業便加快產品構思、商品化、試賣及售價策略上的流程,並規劃好新舊世代產品替換的時間點及世代產品相對價格以利市場上產品銷售優勢。新世代的產品固然吸引消費者的好奇心,但舊有且已經上手的世代產品亦讓顧客難以捨棄,使得消費者在新世代產品剛進入市場的階段難改購買舊世代產品的習性。為此新世代產品及舊世代產品間市佔率的轉換時影響著產品階段性售價的更動,並且各世代進出市場的時間點也需要視情況調整。
    而本研究論文探討的議題為各世代產品在不同新舊世代產品共存於市場的各時間區間,以Bass擴散模式為各世代產品的銷售需求預測函數,並將市場僅同時存在兩世代產品的需求轉移模式,建構需求轉移擴增至市場上可同時存在多個世代產品時的各產品訂價及各世代進出市場的時間取捨模式。
    模式驗證部分以汽車市場中單一廠牌之實際數據為驗證個案,同時本研究所建構之Matlab函數及C++語言程式中以求解最佳利潤,並取得在考量各世代需求量具有上限值且各產品世代於各時間區間下得最佳訂價。最後則針對模式中存在影響性之參數進行敏感度分析,探討相關參數變動對於最佳獲利、各世代進出市場時間點及各時間區間訂價之影響。

    In the global market, the life cycle of the new product is decreasing due to the products’ changing over speed is increasing dramatically. The major problem in this environment is that the decision makers are hard to decide when to release new generation to the market and when to phase out the old ones. The enterprise would lose their market share immediately if this decision is wrong. As the products are rolling over, it is important to shift customers’ needs from the old generation’s products to the new ones’. Accordingly, they need to prepare a good plan for each generation’s pricing and its moving in and out’s timings in order to gaining more profit as much as they could.
    This study combines the Bass diffusion modal into demand functions, in order to include the diffusion effect among generations into the model. By doing this, one can forecast of each generation’s demand, and formulate the models for different generations. And the solutions for the model can be obtained by combining different solution methods.
    At last, this study uses the vehicle sale reports as the case study to verify the model. We use C++ and Matlab to find the optimal profit, the best rollover timings, and pricing of each generation. The sensitivity analysis of different factors are made to detect the trend of them.

    摘 要 III Abstract IV 誌謝 V 表目錄 VII 圖目錄 VIII 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究動機與背景 1 第二節 研究目的 3 第三節 研究範圍與限制 4 第四節 研究流程 5 第五節 論文大綱 6 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 新產品市場 7 第二節 產品轉移策略 12 第三節 新產品擴散模式 14 第四節 小結 19 第三章 以Bass擴散模型為基礎的世代產品轉移模式 21 第一節 問題描述 21 第二節 模式建立 26 第三節 利潤計算之範例 29 第四節 模式求解 30 第五節 小結 37 第四章 模式驗證與分析 38 第一節 產業環境及個案公司說明 38 第二節 個案參數估計 39 第三節 結果與分析 42 第四節 敏感度分析 47 第五節 小結 53 第五章 結論與建議 54 第一節 結論 54 第二節 未來研究方向 55 參考文獻 57 參考網站 60

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