銀行貸款為公司募集資金的重要來源之一，過去的文獻指出，公司宣告向銀行貸款時擁有正向的宣示效果，然而長期股票卻呈現負向變動(Billet, Flannery, Garfinkel (2006))。在Rajan and Servaes (1997) 的研究中，分析師過度樂觀的預測是造成IPO短期負向但長期正向股價反應的原因之一，而向銀行貸款公司的長短期股價反應和IPO表現一致，因此激發我們去探討分析師過度樂觀的預測效果是否為造成銀行貸款公司長期負向表現的原因之一。
本研究從資料庫篩選了1486筆從1997年至2003年的銀行貸款公司資料。我們採用earning forecast error和long-term earning growth projections方法去衡量分析師的預測效果，結果發現分析師對於銀行貸款的宣告有過度樂觀的預期；接著利用BHAR 和Calendar-time portfolios方法去衡量銀行貸款公司的長期股價表現，並推斷向銀行貸款公司具有長期負向股價表現；最後採用forecasted industry adjusted growth quartiles model, regression model 和Calendar-time portfolio regression model去探討分析師過度樂觀的預期效果與向銀行貸款公司長期負向股價表現之間的關係，我們發現當分析師對特定銀行借款公司的預測越樂觀，這些向銀行借款公司的長期股價表現越差。因此我們可以推斷分析師過度樂觀的預測效果會造成向銀行貸款公司長期的負向表現。
由於分析師可能與向銀行貸款公司之間具有商業關係，因此分析師對於特定公司會發佈較樂觀的預測，建議未來的研究可以釐清分析師與向銀行借款公司間的關係，探討分析師的預測動機，藉以更清楚的衡量分析師過度樂觀效果與向銀行貸款公司長期負向表現之間的關係。

Bank loan is an important source while companies need capital for their corporate purpose or investments. Previous literature suggested that bank loan financing firms experience positive announcement return, with negative long run stock performance (Billet, Flannery, Garfinkel (2006)). From Rajan and Servaes (1997) research, analyst overoptimism is one of reason to explain IPO short run positive and long run negative returns. The short and long run stock returns of bank loan financing firms are similar to IPO issuing firms. Therefore, we use analyst forecasts to explain the negative long-term performance of bank loan financing firms. In out study, we examine weather analysts overoptimistic about bank loan announcements, and testify the relationship between analyst overoptimism and long-term negative stock returns.
Our study includes 1486 bank loan announcement samples from 1997 to 2003. We use earning forecast error and long-term earning growth projections to measure analyst overoptimism, and found that analysts are overoptimistic at bank loan financing firms. Then we adopt BHAR and Calendar-time portfolios to examine the bank loan financing firms’ long run performance, and conclude that these firms may have negative long-term stock performance. Finally, we conduct forecasted industry adjusted growth quartiles model, regression model and Calendar-time portfolio regression model to testify the relationship between analysts’ overoptimism and the long-term stock performance of bank loan financing firms. This evidence indicates that firms perform poorly in the long run when analysts are more optimistic about their long run growth projections. Overall, our results show the higher analyst forecasts may lead to the lower long-term returns for bank loan financing firms.

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