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研究生: 林泓寬
Lin, Hung-Kuan
論文名稱: F-Score及多因子擇股模型於台灣股票市場之實證
An Empirical Study of Taiwan Stock Market Based on F-Score and Multi-Factor Model
指導教授: 王明隆
Wang, Ming-Long
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 經營管理碩士學位學程(AMBA)
Advanced Master of Business Administration (AMBA)
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 59
中文關鍵詞: F-Score多因子擇股模型台灣股市
外文關鍵詞: F-Score, Multi-factor model, Taiwan stock market
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  • 如何於股市中,找出一穩健且有效之投資方法,是為投資人長年以來所求,拜科技所賜,本研究利用Python程式語言,計算出台灣股市26年間的投資報酬績效,試圖使用Joseph D. Piotroski所提出之F-Score作為基礎進一步的做出驗證以及改進,在本研究中選用了淨值市值比、股價淨值比、本益比、股價營收比、股利殖利率等,包含F-Score一共六種績優指標,先將各個指標進行十等分運算得到各個等分之投資報酬分佈,再將其最佳之三區間作為排列組合計算成份。

    根據實證結果,可以發現,在股價淨值比、本益比、股價營收比三個指標,台灣股市與美國股市的表現相當,皆是呈現隨著百分比上升而績效下降,而此一現象也符合定義所述,投資人可以以相對低的價格買入淨值、盈利又或是營收。在研究也中也發現了一個與美國股市有十分大差異的指標,也就是股利殖利率,相較於美國股市隨股利率的上升績效和緩上升,台股則是有大幅的績效上升,推測為因華人投資股票時相對的看重長期穩定的股利報酬,因而產生此差異。

    而在排列組合的實證結果中,我們發現了多指標相較於單一指標確實有提升投資績效之能力,但並非越多越好,依本研究結果,使用五種指標所產生的六種排列組合,全數績效排名優於六種指標之排名,另外在單一指標影響力實證中,也能得知在單一指標時之投資績效,並非是排列組合投資績效之保證,尚需就於排列組合績效中對於各指標作進一步分析,方能得到較為客觀之論述。

    This paper is seeking a way to improve Piotroski’s(2000) current F-Score portfolio, we have chosen four high performance factors from O’Shaughnessy(2011), that were Price to book ratio, Price to earning ratio, Price to sales ratio, Dividend yield, plus book to market ratio which use in F-score, there are six factors total. Using the results of each of the six factors, we can get the best 30% criteria of them, and by combining the each criteria, we can get 63 combinations. The empirical results show that, at Price to book value, Price to earning ratio and Price to sales ratio, same as Taiwan and U.S. stock market, the return fall when the percentile rise, but when it comes to Dividend yield, Taiwan’s stock market have a huge return bump compared to U.S. stock market. And the return of the 63 combination shows that, (1) Muti-factor did better than single factor. (2) More factor doesn’t mean better return. (3) Good performance at single factor doesn’t necessarily mean good performance while combining with other factors.

    摘要 i Abstract ii 誌謝 v 目錄 vi 表目錄 viii 圖目錄 ix 第壹章 緒論 1 第壹節 研究背景與動機 1 第貳節 研究目的 3 第參節 章節架構 4 第貳章 文獻探討與回顧 5 第壹節 基本面分析 5 一、價值股與魅力股 6 第貳節 F-Score選股模型 7 一、財務表現訊號:獲利能力 8 二、財務表現訊號:財務槓桿、流動性與資金來源 8 三、財務表現訊號:營運效率 9 第參節 績優因子 10 一、淨值市值比Book to Market Ratio(BM) 10 二、本益比Price to Earning Ratio(PE) 10 三、股息殖利率Dividend Yield 11 第參章 研究方法與設計 12 第壹節 實驗設計 12 第貳節 樣本資料 14 一、大盤績效 14 二、F-Score、績優指標定義與計算方式 16 第參節 資料取用規則 一、初始資料期間偏誤 21 二、未來資料取用偏誤 21 三、財務資料取用規則 22 第肆節 交易機制 23 一、選股策略選定 23 二、等分計算方法 24 三、日期參數 24 四、其他參數 24 五、買賣機制 25 第伍節 資料計算方式 26 第肆章 實證結果 28 第壹節 F-Score與績優指標各等分績效表現 28 一、F-Score實證結果 28 二、淨值市值比與股價淨值比實證結果 31 三、本益比實證結果 34 四、股價營收比實證結果 36 五、股利殖利率實證結果 38 第貳節 F-Score與淨值市值比之關係 41 第參節 F-Score與績優指標選用條件之排列組合 50 ㄧ、F-Score與績優指標之選用條件決定 50 二、F-Score與績優指標選用條件之排列組合實證結果 50 第伍章 結論 53 參考書目 55

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