在全球暖化的影響下，隨著暴潮和強降雨事件的頻繁發生，全球各地的沿海地區面臨著嚴重的「複合淹水」(Compound Flooding)問題，並且台灣位於太平洋颱風主要路徑上，在颱風造成的強降雨與暴潮的相互影響下，加劇了沿海地區複合淹水的嚴重性。本研究利用美國環保署所開發的一維SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)模式，以元件的方式將研究區域內部進行建模，結合擬二維概念，模擬氣候變遷下的複合淹水情形。研究採用5種不同的GCM進行模擬，並將結果區分不同時期進行分析，分別為短期、中期、中長期以及長期，各時期再以不同淹水深度作為劃分，將深度0.3 m、0.5 m、1.0 m以及2.0 m以上的淹水面積進行趨勢分析以及頻率分析，並納入基期的模擬結果作為比較對象。
研究結果顯示，在未來時期研究區域的淹水面積呈現明顯增長的趨勢，各時期的結果則呈現各自不同的趨勢。在淹水面積與基期的變化上，不同GCM在各時期的淹水面積變化如下，短期（2021 ~ 2040年），各GCM平均淹水面積相較於基期增加約8.54 %；中期（2041 ~ 2060年），各GCM平均淹水面積增加約16.54 %；中長期（2061 ~ 2080年）GCM平均淹水面積增加約16.19 %；長期（2081 ~ 2100年）各GCM平均淹水面積增加約27.77 %。頻率分析的結果則說明，隨著時間的推移，累積機率分布呈現趨近的情形，並且淹水面積呈現明顯增長情況，這代表在氣候變遷的進展下，研究區域的淹水風險將顯著增高，以及未來淹水事件的範圍和嚴重性亦持續增加，需要制定更加有效的防災策略來應對未來可能發生的極端天氣事件。
本研究合理展示未來降雨量及潮位條件複合影響下，研究區域地表之淹水面積變化趨勢，可作為未來沿海地區進行複合淹水的防災減災策略擬定之參考。

Coastal regions face a growing threat of compound flooding due to climate change. This phenomenon arises from the increased frequency of storm surges and heavy rainfall events. To assess these future risks, this study utilizes the SWMM model to simulate compound flooding scenarios under climate change. Five different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are conducted the simulations. The analysis focuses on flooding trends and frequencies across four-time intervals: short-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060), mid-to-long-term (2061-2080), and long-term (2081-2100). The results indicate an increasing trend in flood areas in the future. Additionally, frequency analysis results reveal that flood risk is also gradually increasing, indicating that the extent and severity of future flooding events are expanding. This study effectively demonstrates the trends in flood area changes under the influence of rainfall and tidal conditions, enabling researchers to accurately assess the evolving risks of compound flooding in coastal regions.

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