| 研究生: |
黃思嘉 Huang, Si-Jia |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以長短期記憶模型實現短期用電需量預測與視覺化呈現 Utilizing LSTM for Short-term Load Forecasting and Visualization |
| 指導教授: |
鄧維光
Teng, Wei-Guang |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
工學院 - 工程科學系 Department of Engineering Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2022 |
| 畢業學年度: | 110 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 44 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 長短期記憶模型 、短期負載預測 、用電視覺化 、需求面管理 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | long short-term memory, short-term load forecasting, data visualization, demand side management |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:166 下載:22 |
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隨著科技的進步,用電需求與日俱增,供應商為解決大量的用電需求,將節電政策的重心放在需求面管理,以有效的掌握用電。諸如推行契約需量、時間電價等政策,希望藉此控制使用者在尖峰時段的用電量。但此一構想之落實不單從供應商著手,使用者的配合也非常重要。然而在實際情況下,使用者對於自身用電習慣並不瞭解,因此需要透過用電視覺化提高使用者的用電意識,同時藉由用電警示提早告知使用者用電即將超約,以利使用者從中控管尖峰用電。因此本研究設計出一套結合用電視覺化與用電預測的系統,系統能於網頁上呈現即時用電資訊與需量預測趨勢,讓使用者能依照面板上的狀態得知用電是否即將超過契約需量。在預測模型中,利用LSTM模型加入用電資料的特性實現短期需量預測,同時模型也會隨著時間的推進而更新以符合現況。而基於真實資料所進行的實驗結果顯示,系統能在尖峰時段有效的預測用電。且網頁上能即時更新用電狀況與預測趨勢。達到即時通知使用者,讓使用者能防止超過契約容量,同時增加使用者對於自身用電的意識。
As technology advances and the demand for electricity increases, suppliers are focusing on demand side management to effectively control electricity consumption in order to solve the large demand. For example, they have implemented policies such as contract demand and time-of-use tariffs, hoping to control electricity consumption of users during peak hours. However, in reality, users do not understand their own electricity consumption habits. Therefore, we need to raise awareness of users through power visualization, and at the same time, inform users in advance that they are about to exceed their electricity consumption contracts through power alerts, so that they control their peak electricity consumption at an early stage. We design a system that combines electricity visualization and electricity consumption prediction. The system presents real time electricity consumption information and demand prediction trend on the web page, so that users can know whether electricity consumption is about to exceed the contracted demand according to the status on the panel. In the prediction model, the LSTM model uses the characteristics of electricity consumption data to achieve short-term load forecasting, and the model updates over time to match the current situation. Experimental results based on real data show that the system is able to predict power consumption effectively during peak hours. The webpage has been updated with the electricity consumption status and forecast trend in real time. This allows users to be notified immediately to prevent exceeding the contracted capacity and to increase their awareness of their own electricity consumption.
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