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研究生: 陳文賞
Thuong, Tran Van
論文名稱: 使用Altman(1968)模型預測有財務危機的越南公司
Forecasting Financial Distress Firms in Vietnam Using Altman's (1968) Model
指導教授: 黎明淵
Li, Ming-Yuan Leon
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 29
外文關鍵詞: z-score, bankruptcy, financial distress, logistic model
相關次數: 點閱:136下載:3
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  • This study attempts to re-examine the well-known model of bankruptcy prediction, the Altman’s (1968) model, to identify predictors of corporate financial distress, and to reveal the comparative predictive and classification accuracy of the model. The study relies on a sample of 17 financial distressed firms and 51 non-financial distressed firms, from various industries except financial industry, that listed in the Vietnam stock market over the 2005-2009 period, which include a period of high economic growth (2005-2007) followed by an financial crisis period (2007-2008). The logit techniques are employed to evaluate performance of the overall model and to compare on a basic of a higher percentage of correct classification under different firm’s characteristics. Furthermore, this study attempts to reveal the changes, if any, in bankruptcy predictors, from those found in earlier studies that rested on the data from the developed markets. The findings of this study are summarized as follows. First, compared with the original model in which just manufacturing firms are analyzed, the re-estimated model of this study which involves manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms still correctly classifies 87.61 per cent of the samples. Second, the findings indicate that profitability, liquidity, and solvency ratios are major predictors of failure. And third, the model is more accurate in predicting financial distress of the manufacturing firms, large firms, and firms with low risk levels in comparison with non-manufacturing firms, small firms, and high risk level of the firms, respectively.

    Acknowledgements I Abstract II List of Tables IV List of Figures V 1. Introduction 1 2. Literature Review 4 3. Data and Methodology 9 3.1 Data Selection 9 3.2 Methodology 12 4. Empirical Results 16 4.1 Parameter Estimates of Logistic Regression Model 16 4.2 Financial Distress Prediction Performance 17 5. Conclusions and Future Research Suggestions 22 References 24

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