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研究生: 蘇國恩
SU, Kuo-En
論文名稱: 台灣基金投資人處分效果之研究
A Study of the Disposition Effect : Evidence from Taiwan Mutual Funds Investors
指導教授: 顏盟峯
Yen, Meng-Feng
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 財務金融研究所
Graduate Institute of Finance
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 39
中文關鍵詞: 處分效果展望理論價值函數決策權數函數
外文關鍵詞: Disposition Effect, Prospect Theory, Value Function, Decision Weighting Function
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  • Shefrin and Statman(1985)他們將Kahneman與Tversky的展望理論應用在投資行為上,指出投資人在處分股票時會呈現出「急售利得、惜售損失」的傾向,此一傾向被稱為處分效果(disposition effect),處分效果是投資人在處置金融商品時一項十分常見的理財偏誤。本研究以國內某大銀行共同基金投資人交易資料為研究主體,依據Odean(1998)所建立損益實現比重法來探討台灣基金投資人是否具有處分效果。實證上有以下發現,投資人傾向賣出獲利的基金投資、對虧損的基金明顯不願實現虧損,台灣共同基金投資人確實存在處分效果。本研究進一步探討理財服務人員是否加強投資人的處分效果,有理專深入服務的投資人處分效果顯著大於無理專服務的投資人。原因是理專面臨業績壓力,每月需要新的資金來申購銀行架上境內外基金,而台灣基金投資人相當依賴理專提供的理財建議,理專加速投資人基金週轉率,使顧客急售利得基金,而帳上虧損基金因擔心客戶指責傾向避免停損繼續持有。本研究並進一步依基金投資人風險屬性、持有債券基金或股票基金加以分類皆存在處分效果,投資人風險屬性較積極者有較顯著的處分行為。其次針對金融風暴期間(本文取樣2007年7月至2009年6月)是否造成投資人的處分效果有明顯不同,台灣基金投資人在金融風暴期間,處分效果顯著小於樣本其它時間,原因在金融風暴期間基金下跌速度太猛太快,投資人不願接受已發生嚴重損失的事實,繼續持有基金。

    Shefrin and Statman (1985) apply the prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky in investors’ behavior, and point out a phenomenon called “ The Disposition Effect “. The winning investors often sell their stocks too early while the losers hold them too long. Of the financial items, the disposition is a very common error of investment.
    The researches undertaken in the paper about one of the large bank mutual funds are based on the method of achieving weight & loss of Odean (1998), which provides us a good way to examine how the disposition plays an important role for the mutual fund in Taiwan.
    According to the statistics , investors sell profitable Funds, but was unwilling to sell those ones which are losing. Therefore, we make a conclusion that: the disposition effect do affect behavior of Taiwan mutual fund investors. Also, this study takes a further look at whether financial advisers enhance the investor's disposition effect;rational investors, specifically in-depth services to the disposition effect significantly greater than the arbitrary post-service investors. Why ?
    First, the reason is financial advisers facing the pressure of purchasing new funds from the bank per month. Second, Taiwan fund investors rely heavily on financial management expertise to provide recommendations designed to accelerate investment in one fund manager turnover rate, so that customers sell profits fund quickly and account customers on the accusations for fear of loss of funds tend to avoid the stop-loss and continue to hold.
    Third, the study analyzes the disposition effect on the risk profiles by fund investors, bond funds or equity funds holding separately. We find out that the more investors are risk-aggressive, and the more disposition effect is.
    Finally ,we discuss the investor's disposition effect during the financial turmoil (significant from July 2007 to June 2009). Significant and different: disposition effect during the financial turmoil was significantly less than during the sample otherwise times. During the financial storm, the financial assets dropped too fast for investors to react, so that the investors would rather hold the funds with serious losses.

    第一章 緒論1 1.1 研究背景與動機1 1.1.1 投資人的績效遠低於大盤1 1.1.2 理財業務人員是否加重投資人處分效果3 1.2 研究目的5 1.3 研究架構6 1.4 研究流程7 第二章 文獻回顧8 2.1 展望理論之發展8 2.1.1 Allais矛盾8 2.1.2展望理論其它特性11 2.2 行為財務學理論架構12 2.2.1 行為財務學的其他理論 14 2.3 處分效果的相關研究18 2.3.1 處分效果的理論基礎18 2.3.2 處分效果相關國內外文獻彙整19 2.3.3 處分效果的研究方法21 第三章 研究方法23 3.1 研究範圍23 3.2 資料敘述統計24 3.3.1 研究分析方法25 3.3.2 研究假說27 第四章 實証分析28 4.1 整體基金投資人處分效果之檢定28 4.2 有理專服務的投資人其處分效果較為強烈之檢定28 4.3 投資人不同的風險屬性態度其處分效果之檢定29 4.4 投資人持有股票基金相較於債券基金其處分效果之檢定30 4.5 金融風暴期間處分效果之檢定30 4.6 其它不同分類方式處分效果之檢定31 第五章 結論與建議34 5.1 結論 34 5.2 研究建議36 參考文獻37

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