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研究生: 瑞心娜
Cindha Rizkiana
論文名稱: 利用卷積神經網路預測台灣營建人力平均費用之波動
Exploiting Convolutional Neural Network to Forecast the Fluctuation of the Average Construction Labour Price in Taiwan
指導教授: 馮重偉
Feng, Chung-Wei
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 土木工程學系
Department of Civil Engineering
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 172
中文關鍵詞: 人工智能台灣營建人力平均費用卷積神經網Google Trends
外文關鍵詞: Artificial Intelligence, Average Construction Labour Price, Convolutional Neural Network, Google Trends
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  • The fluctuation of the average construction labour price is one of the important factors that could impact the profits of the construction project. The average construction labour price fluctuation could be affected by various factors. However, if the cost estimation is not defined certainly, it will cause overbudgeting on the operating costs.
    Artificial Intelligence is often used in graphics recognition, speech recognition, and other areas. It is often used for forecasting, such as using the Convolutional Neural Network. it is often used to extract features from multi-dimensional data and retain the data to perform image recognition to get higher accuracy than human judgment. There some research has been done to forecast the price fluctuations. For instance, develop the data handling by determining the numerous parameters (e.g., price of steel, oil price, inflation rate, etc.) to forecast the iron ore price. In addition, the movement price of the stock market also can be accurately predicted from multiple time scale features. However, most of the research does not consider the current situation that could affect the forecasting price prediction.
    Since there is no actual statistical value data to indicate actual incidents, this thesis uses Convolutional Neural Network to combine the primary factors with relevant events keywords or popular keywords that provided Google Search. It genuinely can represent unquantifiable data. This thesis analyzes the interval time for six months later, three months later, and one month later.
    The result of forecasting six months later is higher than 88%, the results of forecasting three months later are higher than 85%, and the results of forecasting one month later are higher than 86%. However, after inputting the related events keyword, the accuracy of results has improved for forecasting six months later. It shows that contractors can use this method to forecast the average construction labour price to help contractors identify the price prediction more accurately when formulating procurement strategies for the cost estimation.

    ABSTRACT I ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS III LIST OF TABLES VIII LIST OF FIGURES XI CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background and Motivation 1 1.2 Objectives 3 1.3 Research Scope 5 1.4 Research Procedure 6 1.5 Thesis Structure 8 CHAPTER 2: PROBLEM STATEMENT AND LITERATURE REVIEW 9 2.1 Problem Statement 9 2.1.1 Factors Affecting the Average Construction Labour Price 9 2.1.2 Keyword Extraction using Related Events. 10 2.1.3 Artificial Intelligence Technology Applications 10 2.1.4 Construction Cost Estimation 11 2.1.5 Factors Affecting Construction Raw Materials Price 12 2.2 Research in Prediction Models and Application of Artificial Intelligence 17 2.2.1 Construction Cost Index for Forecasting Average Construction Labour Price 17 2.2.2 Application of Keywords 18 2.2.3 The Relationship Between Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning 20 2.3 Summary 29 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 32 3.1 Requirements Analysis 34 3.1.1 IDEF0 Flow Diagrams 35 3.2 Data Collection and Processing Tools 37 3.2.1 Web Crawler 37 3.2.2 Python 39 3.2.3 Matplotlib 40 3.2.4 Google Trends 40 3.3 Programming Tools 42 3.3.1 TensorFlow 43 3.3.2 Keras 45 CHAPTER 4: FRAMEWORK FOR DEVELOPING CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK FORECASTING MODEL 47 4.1 Establish the Forecast Model Requirements. 49 4.1.1 Develop the Information Architecture of Predictive Model 49 4.1.2 Develop the Predictive Model 52 4.2 Analyze the Influence Factors of the Average Construction Labour Price 54 4.2.1 Supply Chain Relationship 55 4.2.2 Market Economy Environment 57 4.2.3 Overall Environment Issues 60 4.2.4 Summary of Primary Factors 61 4.3 Collect the Data for the Model 63 4.3.1 Data Source and Scope 63 4.3.2 Web Crawler Process 64 4.4 Analysis of Impact Events and Keywords 67 4.4.1 Analysis of Impact Events and Related Keywords 67 4.4.2 Analysis of Using Actual Popular Keywords 78 4.4.3 Keywords Filtering 80 4.5 Data Preparation Process for Forecasting Model 83 4.5.1 Data Pre- Processing 83 4.5.2 Data Enhancement 89 4.6 Develop a Convolutional Neural Network Forecasting Model 90 4.6.1 Data Input 90 4.6.2 Establish Convolutional Neural Network Architecture 91 4.6.3 Model Training 94 4.6.4 Training Result and Evaluation 94 4.7 Summary 96 CHAPTER 5: EXPERIMENTAL RESULT AND ANALYSIS 97 5.1 Model Training Results 98 5.1.1 Training Results and Evaluation 98 5.2 Analysis of Training Results 114 5.3 Performing Predictions 115 5.3.1 Prediction Results 115 5.3.2 Forecast Probability Distribution. 138 5.3.3 Establish a Confusion Matrix 139 5.3.4 Precision-Recall Trade-offs 142 5.4 Summary 146 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 147 6.1 Conclusions 147 6.2 Recommendations 149 REFERENCES 152 Appendix A Results of Relevant Events Keyword Correlation Coefficient Calculations 157 Appendix B Probability Distribution Results of Forecasting 6 Months Later 167 Appendix C Probability Distribution Results of Forecasting 3 Months Later 169 Appendix D Probability Distribution Results of Forecasting 1 Month Later 171

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