| 研究生: |
瑪莉安娜 Mariana, Eva |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
A Non-Linear Dynamic Model of Raw Materials in Dry Bulk Shipping Market A Non-Linear Dynamic Model of Raw Materials in Dry Bulk Shipping Market |
| 指導教授: |
張瀞之
Chang, Ching-Chih |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士班 Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master) |
| 論文出版年: | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度: | 96 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 50 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Dry Bulk Freight Rates, Raw Materials, Non-linear Model, Baltic Dry Index |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:84 下載:6 |
| 分享至: |
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The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of the freight rate in the dry bulk transportation market with raw materials and find out which are the most relevant raw material that cause a stronger effect in the Baltic Dry Index behavior. Since the variables analyzed in this research are characterized as times series variables non-linear dynamics model was used. Unit roots test had been taking into account with the objective to find out the stationarity of the variables studied in this paper the used of Augment Dickey-Fuller and Phillip-Perron test contributed to obtain this results. To determine the causality between variables Granger Causality test was utilized, and finally and analysis of the variance to predict the tendency of the relevant variables found it in the process. The empirical results will help to understand and interpret the real behavior of the Baltic Dry Index, helping to the decisions makers settle on in the raw materials that are key predictors
of the index. In other hand this paper contributes with the literature for future studies which is hardly recommended, since the lack of the material.
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