全球暖化加劇，2011年~2020年全球地表溫度比前工業化時代升高了1.09°C，使得各地近年發生高溫化現象，且隨著城市高度密集發展，許多城市已出現都市熱島現象。由於中央氣象監測站設置數量不多且部分監測站位處海拔較高地區，監測數據無法清楚呈現都市熱島的範圍與強度，國際間過去多項研究利用依據暖化情境模擬的未來氣候數據分析未來都市氣候的變化，然而鮮少有研究探討氣候變化與都市開發程度的關聯性，也較少探討對於室內氣溫及居住環境舒適度可能造成的影響與衝擊。
本研究運用國家災害防救科技中心(NCDR)產製的高解析度全球大氣模式(HiRAM)依據RCP8.5暖化情境模擬的氣候資料，再透過區域模式WRF將資料降至5公里解析度。探討台北市及新北市在基期(1995-2014)與全球暖化程度升溫2℃(2034-2053)的戶外環境和室內環境的差異，並針對高齡者舒適度探討氣候變遷可能產生的風險。研究結果顯示全球暖化程度升溫2℃都市熱島高溫強度將增強，且低溫區的增幅使得熱島中心範圍擴大，未來面對高溫風險的區域將會增加。戶外高溫區域主要在建成區內，且夏季戶外平均氣溫及增加幅度與都市的開發程度有其相關性。
室內環境方面，都市開發程度越高的區域其夏季室內平均氣溫越高，全年感受暖熱的累計時數與全年冷房負荷也越高。高度開發區及次高開發區夏季平均室內氣溫將增加約0.9℃，室內環境全年感受暖熱的累計時數將大於4個月，將使得全年冷房負荷增加約2倍。低度開發區雖然夏季室內平均氣溫較低，但因感受暖熱累計時數增加率較高，未來對於室內溫度上升的感受仍然顯著。此外，高齡者將遭受到的高溫風險更高，高度開發區及次高開發區的室內環境全年感受暖熱累計時數約為5.9個月，在面對超高齡社會的情形下，面對住宅冷房負荷需求增加及高齡者健康風險將會是未來重要的議題。

Global warming continues to intensify, and numerous studies have employed climate projections to analyze future urban climate changes. However, limited research has examined the potential impacts on indoor temperatures and residential comfort.
This study utilizes high-resolution climate data generated by the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model under the RCP8.5 warming scenario, developed by the National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction. The analysis focuses on differences in outdoor and indoor environments in Taipei and New Taipei during the baseline period (1995–2014) and under a 2°C global warming scenario (2034–2053).
The results reveal that the intensity of urban heat islands will increase, with greater temperature increments in low-temperature zones leading to an expansion of UHI core areas. Consequently, regions exposed to high-temperature risks are expected to grow. Outdoor high-temperature zones are primarily concentrated in built-up urban areas, and both the summer outdoor average temperature and its rate of increase are strongly correlated with urban development intensity.
In highly and moderately developed zones, the average indoor summer temperature is projected to increase by approximately 0.9°C. The cumulative annual hours of indoor discomfort are expected to exceed four months, with annual cooling energy demands doubling. Although less developed areas exhibit lower average indoor summer temperatures, the rate of increase in discomfort hours is higher, indicating significant future impacts on indoor heat perception. Elderly populations will face heightened heat risks, with the cumulative annual hours of indoor discomfort in highly and moderately developed zones reaching approximately 5.9 months.

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