本研究主要根據蘭嶼處置場之地形、地質構造、水文地質參數及地球物理探勘等資料建立水文地質概念模型，並且利用多相流地下水質能傳輸模式TOUGH2，針對研究區之地下水流與核種傳輸情形的結果進行探討分析。本研究分別將近場處置窖工程障壁和遠場地質圈進行核種傳輸模擬，並以蘭嶼處置場作為案例，先瞭解在處置設施洩漏情況下，核種於裂縫處外滲傳輸行為，並配合模擬處置場周圍地下水流場，於遠場模擬設立七種不同洩漏案例，評估核種洩露後於地質圈之影響範圍及程度，以作為後續處置場安全評估以及監測設置的參考。
近場模擬案例結果顯示，核種以1 kg/s速率從廢料桶滲漏後，經由處置窖裂隙至地下水位面之路徑距離為0.5公尺，傳輸時間約為10小時，由於到達時間甚短，各核種到達地下水位面時之濃度差異不超過1%。遠場模擬部分，為瞭解各不同半衰期核種最終濃度之差異，模擬蘭嶼處置場存放之11種核種於處置場中央以1 kg/s速率發生洩漏，結果顯示蘭嶼處置場上層水力傳導係數較大之珊瑚礁岩層，成為核種傳輸之主要途徑，傳輸方向與地下水流向一致，由處置場往東南方海邊流動，核種大約在洩漏後第50天到達海邊，傳輸距離約為250m。各核種到達海邊時之最終濃度不盡相同，是由於半衰期而影響核種的最終濃度，半衰期越長之核種，最終濃度越高，故最終濃度11種核種前三高依序為Cs-137、Sr-90與Co-60，而最終濃度分別為初始濃度的4.42%、4.38%與4.35%。
假設核種於處置場北、中、南位置，同時以核種1kg/s發生洩漏，核種到達範圍約為處置場東方至東南方海邊，總長約為600公尺。模擬成果可知，處置場南北位置，由於地下水流方向不同，導致北端與南端核種核種流嚮往東與東偏南45度，因此，未來為涵蓋可能洩漏產生，如處置場未來有監測井設置之需求，至少須設置處置場東方及東偏南60度兩處監測井。此外，當考慮處置場發生全區性核種洩漏，核種於洩漏60天後，此時最高濃度出現在東偏南60度海邊，且由於全面性洩漏導致最高濃度大幅增加，此時約為初始濃度的50%，另外，為瞭解不同洩漏量所造成衝擊，核種以1kg/s、0.1kg/s、0.01kg/s之不同洩漏量發生洩漏時，最高濃度分別為初始濃度24%、2.43%、0.31%，顯示不同之核種洩漏量，其到達海邊時間不同，洩漏量愈小，愈晚到達海邊。

The purpose of this research is to describe the groundwater flow and migration of nuclides for low-level radioactive waste disposal in Lan-Yu, Taiwan. The numerical program, TOUGH2, was applied in the site to establish a conceptual model which is based on the collected data such as terrain, geological structure and hydrological parameters etc. Several scenarios with near-field and far-field cases in Lan-Yu site were supposed to simulate the migration of nuclides in order to understand the influenced range and distribution of concentration.

The results in near-field case showed that because the depth of groundwater is only 0.5m, under 1kg/s leakage rate the concentration of different nuclides took almost the same time to reach groundwater. In far-field cases, the limestone layer was the major migration path of nuclide, and it thus reduced that the transport direction was the same with groundwater direction. The half-life of radionuclide affected the final concentration when it reached the boundary in simulation cases. As 11 simulation nuclides were assigned to release, under 1kg/s leakage rate results indicated that Cs137, Sr90 and Co60 had the higher final concentration because of their long half-life, and thus the ratio of final and initial concentration are 4.42%, 4.38% and 4.35%, respectively.

Results also showed that as radionuclide was leaked under rate 1kg/s in three divisions with north, central and south of Lan-Yu site, the radionuclide transport direction in north division is along the east direction and the directions in central and south divisions are along southeast direction. It implied that there should be established the monitoring wells in the east and southeast of Lan-Yu site. Furthermore, if complete leakage happened in whole site under the leakage rate 1kg/s, the highest ratio of maximum and initial concentration is 50% as arrived at sea boundary , and the flow direction is along S30 E. Moreover, as compared among leakage rate 1kg/s 0.1kg/s and 0.01kg/s, the ratios of maximum and initial concentration are 24%, 2.43% and 0.31%, respectively. It indicated the leakage rate is a magnificent factor in influencing the behavior of radionuclide transport.

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