摘要
價格在消費者的購買決策行為上，扮演著相當重要的決定因素，從企業或廠商的角度來看，價格是市場競爭的重要工具之一，也是收益及利潤的主要來源。如何利用顧客不同的購買時間，及現有庫存量，動態地調整有時限商品的價格使業者收益最大，即成為一個重要的議題。不同於傳統以製造成本決定市場價格的作法，在新興的市場中，價格是根據顧客心中的價值來決定，允許公司即時修正商品價格，直到消費者或顧客有能力或意願去買為止，此即稱為「動態訂價（Dynamic Pricing）」。
本研究目的在於藉由時空網路的表達，建立動態訂價的數學模式，並考量包括原物料的採購，成品生產製造、庫存，以至於處理下游訂單等成本，使製造商能掌握生產數量與管制庫存數量，減少不必要的開支與成本，以求達到最大化期望收益。並以供應鏈上的單一家製造商為探討對象，上游面對原物料的供應商，而下游則滿足製成品購買者之需求，目標是要最大化製造商利潤，，並考慮未滿足需求，及考量運送有前置時間的限制，最終求得此供應鏈網路中之最適價格、生產成品數量與成品庫存數量。
透過實證筆記型電腦製造商數據測試之分析比較，本研究提出之三種訂價方式中，首先，需求確定與需求不確定的單一訂價法之獲利較低。第二，存貨與缺貨成本以需求不確定下之動態訂價模式為最低。研究結果可知，利用即時動態調整價格，將會使廠商賺取更多獲利。最後，在現今市場需求波動、不易預測之情況下，企業為避免價格的隨時調動，而造成下游購買者對於成品價格的混淆，可能同時採取「需求不確定之單一訂價」，及「需求不確定之動態訂價」等兩種方式。

Abstract
Price takes an important factor in consumers’ purchasing decision behavior. It becomes a key issue to maximize profits on how to utilize different purchasing time of customers, and adjust the prices of perishable products dynamically. In burgeoning markets, prices are decided according to customers’ values of products in mind. Besides, it allows businesses to adjust the price promptly, until customers and purchasers can buy or have willing to buy, which is called “Dynamic Pricing.”
The purpose of this research is to construct dynamic pricing mathematical model under uncertain demands by time-space network graphing, considering purchasing raw materials, producing goods, and the inventory or short cost. The object is to facilitate the manufacturer controlling the quantity of production and the cost of goods in stock or short, and in order to maximize the profit of the factory, The result is in order to find the suitable the price, the quantity of production, and the quantity of inventory or short.
Through models and mathematic analyses of a laptop manufacturer in Taiwan, firstly, the profits of the fixed pricing methods with certain demands or uncertain demands are not higher than dynamic pricing model with uncertain demands. Secondly, in dynamic pricing model with uncertain demands opinion, the costs of inventory and shortage are less than dynamic pricing model with uncertain demands. Whether demands are certain or not, dynamic pricing can bring more profits to businesses. Eventually, businesses can adjust the price to reduce the inventory and shortage costs, and obtain suitable production quantity and price by the fixed pricing model with uncertain demands and the dynamic pricing model with uncertain demands.

參考文獻
一、中文部分
1. 王在欣，「需求不確定下供應鏈延遲策略最適化之研究」，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國93年7月。
2. 王晉元，「大眾運輸排班系統之研究」，國立交通大學運輸工程與管理研究所碩士論文，民國89年6月。
3. 李綺容，「航空貨運網路於需求不確定下之規劃」，國立嘉義大學運輸與物流工程研究所碩士論文，民國92年6月。
4. 林明煙，「大陸長江三角洲地區建立整合性供應鏈網路結構模型之研究—以筆記型電腦為例」，國立成功大學管理學院高階管理碩士在職專班碩士論文，民國92年6月。
5. 林嵩然，「路線貨物運輸業需求不確定性載運規劃問題之研究」，國立成功大學交通管理科學研究所碩士論文，民國92年6月。
6. 洪育懷，「多次降價的個人化定價模型以最大化廠商收益或利潤」，國立中興大學電子商務研究所碩士論文，民國93年6月。
7. 陳宇軒，「整合航空客運與貨運之飛航排程暨班次表建立之研究」，國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文，民國93年6月。
8. 陳彥君，「流行服飾最適降價策略之研究」，國立中山大學企業管理研究所碩士論文，民國93年6月。
9. 陳懿璿，「易腐性商品之兩階段式最佳訂價訂購聯合決策存貨系統」，國立中央大學工業管理研究所碩士論文，民國91年6月。
10. 張珮璇，「航空公司資金流動規劃模式之建立」，國立中央大學土木工程研究所碩士論文，民國88年6月。
11. 雷明峰，「航空業機位配置動態定價模型之研究」，國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文，民國91年6月。
12. 楊奕農，「電腦軟體之動態定價策略與最適更版時間」，中原學報Volume：32，Issue：2，民國93年6月，頁171-177。
13. 宏碁網址：http://global.acer.com/t_chinese/index.asp
二、英文部分
1. Ahuja, R. K., Magnanti, T. L., Orlin, J. B., Network Flows- Theory, Algorithms, and Applications, Prentice-Hall, pp. 1-10, 1993.
2. Aldin, N., Stahre, F., Electronic commerce, marketing channels and logistics platforms – a wholesaler perspective, European Journal of Operational Research, 144, pp. 270-279, 2003.
3. Bender, J., Partitioning procedures for solving mixed-variables programming problem, Numeric Mathematics, Vol. 4, pp. 238-252, 1962.
4. Bertsima, D., Boer, S., Dynamic pricing and inventory control for multiple products, Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, pp. 303-319, 2005.
5. Bitran, G., Caldentey, R., An overview of pricing models for revenue management, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, pp. 203-229, 2003.
6. Boyd, E. A., Bilegan, I. C., Revenue management and e-commerce, Management Science, pp. 1363-1386, 2003.
7. Caroe, C. C., Tind, J., L-shaped decomposition of two-stage stochastic programs with integer recourse, Mathematical Programming, Vol. 83, pp. 451-464, 1998.
8. Chan, L. M. A., Levi, D. S., Swann, J., Effective dynamic pricing strategies with stochastic demand, MIT Sloan School of Management, pp. 1-39, 2001.
9. Chen, Y. H., Dynamic pricing model on the Internet market, Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management National Tsing Hua University, pp. 1-45, 2004.
10. Chopra, Sunil, and Meindl, P., Supply Chain Management: Strategy, Planning, and Operation. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education, Inc. (Original work published 2001), 2004.
11. Dupacova, J., Applications of stochastic programming: achievements and questions, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 140, pp. 281-290, 2002.
12. Elmaghraby, W., Keskinocak, P., Dynamic pricing in the presence of inventory considerations: research overview, current practices, and future directions, Management Science, Vol.49, No. 10, pp. 1287-1309, 2003.
13. Gallego, G., Ryzin, G., Optimal dynamic pricing of inventories with stochastic demand over finite horizons, Management Science, pp. 999-1020, 1997.
14. Grander, J. T., Cooper, M. C., Strategic supply chain mapping approaches, Journal of Business Logistics,Vol.24,No.2, pp. 37-64, 2003.
15. Jayaraman, V., Baker, T., The Internet as an enabler for dynamic pricing of goods, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol 50 , No.4, pp. 470-477, 2003.
16. Johnson, J. C., and Wood, D. F., Contemporary Logistics, 5th edition, New York: Macmillan Publishing Company, 1993.
17. Kauffman, R. J., Wang, B., New buyer’s arrival under dynamic pricing market microstructure: the case of group-buying discounts on the Internet, Journal of Management Information Systems, pp. 157-188, 2001.
18. Kouwenberg, R., Scenario generation and stochastic programming models for asset liability management, European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 134, pp. 279-292, 2001.
19. Kung, M., Monroe, K. B., Cox, T. L., Pricing on the Internet, The Journal of Product and Brand Management, pp. 274-287, 2002.
20. Lambert, D. M., Stock, J. R., Ellram, L. M., Fundamentals of Logistics Management, The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., pp.39-74, 1998.
21. Laporte, G., Louveaue, F. V., The integer L-shaped method for stochastic integer programs with complete recourse, Operation Research, Vol. 13, pp. 133-142, 1993.
22. Laporte, G., Louveaue, F. V., Hamme, L. V., Exact solution to a location problem with stochastic demands, Transportation Science, Vol. 28, No. 2, pp. 95-103, 1994.
23. Levi, D. S., Kaminsky, P., Levi, E. S., Designing and Managing the Supply Chain: Concepts, Strategies, and Cases., The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1999.
24. Listes O., Dekker R., A scenario aggregation based approach for determining a robust airline fleet composition, Econometric Institute Reports, pp. 1-21, 2002.
25. Louveaux, F. V., Peeters, D., A dual-based procedure for stochastic facility location, Operations Research, Vol. 40, No. 3, pp. 564-573, 1992.
26. Mills, J., Schmitz, J., Frizelle, G., A strategic review of “Supply Networks”, International Journal of Operations & Production Management, pp. 1012-1036, 2004.
27. Monahan, G. E., Petruzzi, N. C. , Zhao, W., The dynamic pricing problem from a newsvender’s perspective, Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, pp. 73-91, 2004.
28. Pagh, J. D., Cooper, M. C., Supply chain postponement and speculation strategies: how to choose the right strategy, Journal of Business Logistics, 19(2), pp. 13-33, 1998.
29. Powell, W. B., Frantzeskakis, L. F., Restricted recourse strategies for dynamic networks with random arc capacities, Transportation Science, Vol. 28, No. 1, pp. 3-23, 1994.
30. Powell, W. B., A stochastic formulation of the dynamic assignment problem, with an application to truckload motor carriers, Transportation Science, Vol. 30, No. 3, pp.195-219, 1996.
31. Ruszczynski, A., Dentcheva D., Optimality and duality theory for stochastic optimization problems with nonlinear dominance constraints, Mathematical Programming, Vol. 99, No. 2, pp. 329-350, 2004.
32. Supply Chain Council, 2005, SCOR v7.0 Overview.
33. Supply-Chain Council Inc. (n.d.). What is the supply chain? (Online), http://www.supply-chain.org/faq.htm# what is the supply-chain? , 2004.
34. Treville, S., Shapiro, R. D., Hameri, A. P., From supply chain to demand chain: the role of lead time reduction in improving demand chain performance, Journal of Operations Management, 21, pp. 613-627, 2004.
35. Van Slyke, R., R.J.B. Wets, L-shaped linear programs with application to optimal control and stochastic optimization, SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematics, Vol. 17, pp. 638-663, 1969.
36. Webster, S., Dynamic pricing and lead-time policies for make-to-order system, Decision Sciences, Vol. 33, pp. 579-598, 2002.
37. Weiss, R. M., Mehrotra, A. K., Online dynamic pricing: efficiency, equity and the future of e-commerce, Virginia Journal of Law and Technology, pp. 1-10, 2001.
38. Wets, R., Challenges in stochastic programming, Mathematical Programming, 75, pp. 115-135, 1996.
39. You, P. S., Dynamic pricing of inventory with cancellation demand, Journal of the Operational Research Society, pp. 1093-1101, 2003.
40. Zhao, W., Zheng, Y. S., Optimal dynamic pricing for perishable assets with nonhomogeneous demand, Management Science, pp. 375-388, 2000.