| 研究生: |
卓至柔 Cho, Jou-Chih |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以住宅負擔能力角度衡量購屋負擔差距機率–台北都會區家戶為例– Measuring Probability of Affordable Gap toward Housing Affordability Perspective –A Study of Taipei Metropolis Household – |
| 指導教授: |
陳彥仲
Chen, Yen-Jong |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
規劃與設計學院 - 都市計劃學系 Department of Urban Planning |
| 論文出版年: | 2013 |
| 畢業學年度: | 101 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 61 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 住宅負擔能力 、可負擔住宅價格上限值 、購屋負擔差距機率 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Housing affordability, Affordable Limit, Probability of affordable gap |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:102 下載:15 |
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臺灣住宅自有率自1960年至2011年已從66.2%上升至84.6%,遠超過歐美國家6、7成的比例,而從家庭消費結構中住宅相關花費佔24%相較於食品、交通等支出高,由此可說明購屋是大部分臺灣家戶會面臨到的課題。
衡量住宅負擔能力的指標繁多,本研究利用房價所得比進行初步衡量發現台北市、新北市相較於其他都市的住宅負擔能力為最差,並在2011年達到高峰,因此選定2011年台北都會區作為實證地區。而本研究選定考量較多元的財富限制式與所得限制式(Gan & Hill, 2009),對台北都會區家戶進行可負擔住宅價格的預測並比較各家戶實際的住宅價格,假使可負擔住宅價格小於實際住宅價格,則存在購屋負擔差距機率(意即購屋負擔壓力程度)。
實證結果顯示高所得與高房價地區家戶,皆發生超出其所得能力購買高房價的現象,其狀況比低所得及低房價地區家戶來得強烈。最後將台北都會區家戶的購屋負擔差距機率與相關成因做多元迴歸檢定,顯示貸款利率、貸款成數、住宅單價、居住人數、就業類型、教育程度、住宅面積以及屋齡有顯著影響,在迴歸檢定中發現屬於低所得家戶購屋負擔壓力相較於中、高所得家戶較低,而當家戶戶長的教育程度高時,購屋負擔壓力也較高。
The rate of homeownership in Taiwan has increased from 66.2% to 82.5%. It was slightly high, compare to western countries whose rate was around 60% to 70% from 1960s until now. Taiwan people spent more for housing cost (24%) rather than food, transportation, clothing and others cost in the total of family consumption. Therefore, we assume that housing issue is an essential problem which faced by most of family in Taiwan.
In the way of measuring housing affordability, this research used “Housing price to income ratio” index. Through this, we found the housing affordability between Taipei city and New Taipei city are the highest compare to other cities in Taiwan, and it continuously increase in 2011. Taipei metropolis has been selected as empirical study area. It is focused on the “purshase and repayment affordbility’’ as a formula to measure the household’s affordable price in Taipei metropolis. If real house price is bigger than the affordable house price, it means the probability of affordable gap (the degree of housing affordable pressure) exists.
The result shows, all of households exceed their income that they can not afford to buy. The high income houseeholds or the households in the high house price location, their housing affordable pressure is stronger than the low income households and the households who live in the low house price location. Using multiple linear regression, we test which factors would affect the probability of affordable gap.The result shows that the lending interest rate, loan ratio, house price of 3.3 meter square, the amount of living people, education level, house area and the building’s age are correlated. In the regression model, it has been confirmed that the housing affordability pressure for the low income households is higher than the median and high income households and when people who is high education also suffer from higher housing affordability pressure.
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