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研究生: 王建偉
WANG, CHIEN-WEI
論文名稱: 利用裁決性應計項目衡量企業盈餘預測誤差暨探討盈餘品質之研究
An Empirical Evaluation of Accrual Prediction Models Utilizing on Earnings Forecast Errors and Earnings Quality
指導教授: 林玲芬
LIN, LING-FEN
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 管理學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accountancy
論文出版年: 2006
畢業學年度: 94
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 74
中文關鍵詞: 累積異常盈餘盈餘管理裁決性應計項目
外文關鍵詞: discretionary accrual item, earning management, cumulative mean abnormal returns
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  • 本研究主要依據Burgstahler and Dichev(1997)探討企業是否會因為避免盈餘損失(earnings losses)或避免盈餘下降(earnings decreases)而從事盈餘管理,利用預測誤差分布圖來分類並利用異常盈餘來探討相關盈餘品質。本研究乃是以台灣上市、上櫃公司為研究對象,公司家數共236家,樣本期間為1999年到2004年,主要以裁決性應計項目來探討公司是否有從事盈餘管理的行為,實證結果如下:
    1、避免盈餘損失(earnings losses)或避免盈餘下降(earnings decreases)的企業,有顯著進行盈餘管理的行為,其裁決性應計項目皆為正值。實證結果也顯示,避免盈餘損失(earnings losses)的企業相較於避免盈餘下降(earnings decreases)的企業,顯示出進行較多的盈餘管理行為。
    2、預測誤差異於零而為正值即避免盈餘損失或避免盈餘下降動機的企業,其裁決性應計項目為負值,並無顯著進行盈餘管理的行為。
    3、投資人對於有進行盈餘管理而傾向避免盈餘損失(earnings losses)的企業,相較於有進行盈餘管理來而傾向避免盈餘下降(earnings decreases)的企業,實證結果顯示其累積異常報酬較高,盈餘品質也相對較高。
    4、投資人對於沒有進行盈餘管理的企業與有進行盈餘管理而傾向避免盈餘損失(earnings losses)的企業,實證結果顯示累積異常報酬並沒有顯著差異,盈餘品質也無顯著差距。

    關鍵字:盈餘管理、裁決性應計項目、累積異常盈餘。

    This paper follow Burgstahler and Dichev(1997) to provides evidence that firms manage reported earnings to avoid earnings losses or avoid earnings decreases. Using empirical distribution of changes forecast error to examine influences the different of relate earning quality.

    This study investigates the use of discretionary accruals to measure the managers’ behavior of earning management. Using the 1999-2004 Taiwan’s public companies as the study samples (236 firms). Specifically, we examine the following four related issues.

    1.The firms that managers’ behavior of earning management to avoid earnings losses or avoid earnings decreases have use of discretionary accruals to earning management.
    2.The firms neither managers’ behavior of earning management to avoid earnings losses nor avoid earnings decreases have negative discretionary item.
    3.The managers’ behavior of earning management to avoid earnings losses are more quality than managers’ behavior of earning management to avoid earnings decreases.
    4.The managers’ behavior of earning management to avoid earnings losses and managers’ behavior without earning management related to the abnormal return not relatively significantly.

    Key word: earning management、discretionary accrual item、cumulative mean abnormal returns.

    第一章 緒論…………………………………………………………1 第一節 研究背景與動機……………………………………………1 第二節 研究目的……………………………………………………4 第三節 論文架構與研究流程………………………………………5 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………7 第一節 盈餘管理的動機、定義與衡量方法………………………7 第二節 盈餘管理的方法與裁決性應計模型………………………15 第三節 盈餘品質定義與衡量方法…………………………………22 第三章 研究方法……………………………………………………26 第一節 研究假說的建立……………………………………………27 第二節 研究模型設計與變數定義…………………………………32 第三節 資料來源與樣本篩選………………………………………39 第四章 實證結果與分析……………………………………………42 第一節 敘述統計量…………………………………………………42 第二節 預測盈餘與實際盈餘差異分析圖…………………………45 第三節 裁決性應計項目之檢定與分析……………………………50 第四節 研究假說驗證………………………………………………52 第五章 研究結論與建議……………………………………………65 第一節 研究結論……………………………………………………65 第二節 研究限制與對後續研究者所作之建議……………………68 參考文獻………………………………………………………………70

    參考文獻
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