| 研究生: |
莊筑涵 Chuang, Chu-Han |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
智慧城市下共享自駕車應用之模擬與分析 Simulation-based Analysis for Shared Autonomous Vehicles Applications in Smart Cities |
| 指導教授: |
胡大瀛
Hu, Ta-Yin |
| 學位類別: |
碩士 Master |
| 系所名稱: |
管理學院 - 電信管理研究所 Institute of Telecommunications Management |
| 論文出版年: | 2019 |
| 畢業學年度: | 107 |
| 語文別: | 英文 |
| 論文頁數: | 105 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 智慧城市 、共享自駕車 、多項式羅吉特模式 、敘述性偏好 、運具選擇 、車隊規模 、DynaTAIWAN |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Smart Cities, Shared Autonomous Vehicles, Multinomial Logit Model, Stated Preference Method, Mode Choice, Fleet size, DyanTAIWAN |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:148 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
利用資通訊科技建構一個智慧城市,以解決人口不斷增長以及快速都市化所帶來的問題,已成為當局者急需解決的挑戰。
隨著智慧型運輸系統(ITS,Intelligent Transportation Systems)的發展,增進了運輸系統之安全、效率與舒適,以及減少都市化對交通環境的衝擊,其中自動駕駛車被認為是提升道路安全、效率、解決交通擁擠、能源消耗以及環境污染等問題的解決方案,亦被認為是可以解決交通第一哩路與最後一哩路的有效方法。
然而台灣車流有汽機車共存的特性,若是將共享自駕車(SAV,Shared Autonomous Vehicles)服務導入在台灣的路網中將會有不同的情況發生;再加上新興科技的出現伴隨的是人們接受度與信賴度的問題。
故本研究採用個體選擇模式中的多項羅吉特模式,建構消費者運具之選擇行為,以分析消費者對於共享自動駕駛車之偏好以及推估共享自駕車的需求量,本研究使用Biogeme軟體對其模式參數進行校估與分析。接著,利用交通指派模擬軟體DynaTAIWAN,觀察整體系統績效,評估共享自駕車加入台灣路網的影響。
模式校估結果顯示,常搭乘大眾運具、有共乘體驗以及女性較偏好使用共享自駕車,而共享自駕車之運具占有率也高於汽車、機車和大眾運具。在模擬結果則表明,若是需求有轉移至共享自駕車,則引進共享自駕車可以舒緩交通壅塞、改善空氣汙染和節省能源。
最終產生之結果,能讓公私部門使用更準確的方式來推廣以及佈署自動駕駛車,亦可驅動未來有關自動駕駛車之研究。
The growing population and rapid urbanization have become an urgent challenge for the authorities. Utilizing the information and communication technologies (ICT) to construct a smart city is considered as a solution.
The development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), the safety, efficiency, and comfort of the transportation system are enhanced, as well as the impact of urbanization on the traffic environment is reduced. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are considered to be a solution to improve road safety, relieve congestion, save energy, and reduce air pollution; moreover, it is also deemed to be a solution to solve first mile and last mile problem.
If the shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) service is introduced into Taiwan, different situations will happen due to the mixed traffic flow. Moreover, an emerging technology breakthrough is accompanied by people’s adoption and reliability.
In view of this, this study constructs Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) firstly to analyze consumers’ preferences for SAVs and use Biogeme software to estimate parameters. Secondly, in order to evaluate the impact of SAVs on the traffic network, we utilize DynaTAIWAN, a dynamic traffic assignment simulation, to observe the overall system performance.
Estimation results show that SAV is more likely to be used by people who use public transportation frequently, have a ridesharing experience, and female. SAV mode share is the highest compared with cars, motorcycles, and public transportation in both Scenario 1 (8KM) and Scenario 2 (16KM).
On the other hand, simulation results indicate that SAVs can relieve congestion (because the average travel time and stop time of system decreased), reduce air pollution (because SAVs are electrification), and save energy (because the number of cars and motorcycles decreased) when demand does shift from private mode to SAVs.
The research results will allow the government and operators to use more accurate approaches to promote and develop SAV service. It also can drive future research on AVs or SAVs.
5G Americas (2017). 5G Spectrum Recommendations. From http://www.5gamericas.org/files/9114/9324/1786/5GA_5G_Spectrum_Recommendations_2017_FINAL.pdf
7Starlake (2017). From http://7starlake.com/pr_CH.html
Adrian, L. (2017). Driverless vehicle rides in three new towns from 2022. The Straits Times. From https://www.straitstimes.com/global
Aina, Y. A. (2017). Achieving smart sustainable cities with GeoICT support: The Saudi evolving smart cities. Cities, 71, 49-58.
Bansal, P., Kockelman, K. M., & Singh, A. (2016). Assessing public opinions of and interest in new vehicle technologies: An Austin perspective. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 67, 1-14.
Batty, M., Axhausen, K. W., Giannotti, F., Pozdnoukhov, A., Bazzani, A., Wachowicz, M., ... & Portugali, Y. (2012). Smart cities of the future. The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 214(1), 481-518.
Ben-Akiva, M. E., Lerman, S. R., & Lerman, S. R. (1985). Discrete choice analysis: theory and application to travel demand (Vol. 9). MIT press.
Bernstein (2016). The number of cars worldwide is set to double by 2040. World Economic Forum. From https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/04/the-number-of-cars-worldwide-is-set-to-double-by-2040
Bösch, P. M., Becker, F., Becker, H., & Axhausen, K. W. (2018). Cost-based analysis of autonomous mobility services. Transport Policy, 64, 76-91.
Burns, L. D., Jordan, W. C., & Scarborough, B. A. (2013). Transforming personal mobility. The Earth Institute, 431, 432.
Casley, S. V., Jardim, A. S., & Quartulli, A. M. (2013). A study of public acceptance of autonomous cars. Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Bachelor Thesis.
Chourabi, H., Nam, T., Walker, S., Gil-Garcia, J. R., Mellouli, S., Nahon, K., ... & Scholl, H. J. (2012, January). Understanding smart cities: An integrative framework. In System Science (HICSS), 2012 45th Hawaii International Conference on (pp. 2289-2297). IEEE.
Cummings, M. L., & Ryan, J. (2014). Point of view: who is in charge? The promises and pitfalls of driverless cars. TR News, (292).
Ewing, G., & Sarigöllü, E. (2000). Assessing consumer preferences for clean-fuel vehicles: A discrete choice experiment. Journal of public policy & marketing, 19(1), 106-118.
Fagnant, D. J., & Kockelman, K. M. (2014). The travel and environmental implications of shared autonomous vehicles, using agent-based model scenarios. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 40, 1-13.
Fagnant, D. J., & Kockelman, K. M. (2015). Dynamic ride-sharing and optimal fleet sizing for a system of shared autonomous vehicles (No. 15-1962).
FCC (1999). "Federal Communications Commission. News Release, October 1999". FCC. Retrieved 2009-08-16.
Gartner (2018). Gartner Identifies Five Emerging Technology Trends That Will Blur the Lines Between Human and Machine. From https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2018-08-20-gartner-identifies-five-emerging-technology-trends-that-will-blur-the-lines-between-human-and-machine
GATEway project (2018). From https://gateway-project.org.uk/
Giffinger, R., Fertner, C., Kramar, H., & Meijers, E. (2007). City-ranking of European medium-sized cities. Cent. Reg. Sci. Vienna UT, 1-12.
Gkartzonikas, C., & Gkritza, K. (2019). What have we learned? A review of stated preference and choice studies on autonomous vehicles. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 98, 323-337.
Global Smart City (2017). Global Smart City From http://k-smartcity.kr/english/smartcity/business.php
GSMA (2018). 5G Spectrum. From https://www.gsma.com/spectrum/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/5G-Spectrum-Positions.pdf
Haboucha, C. J., Ishaq, R., & Shiftan, Y. (2017). User preferences regarding autonomous vehicles. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 78, 37-49.
Hashem, I. A. T., Chang, V., Anuar, N. B., Adewole, K., Yaqoob, I., Gani, A., & Chiroma, H. (2016). The role of big data in smart city. International Journal of Information Management, 36(5), 748-758.
Hensher, D. A. (1994). Stated preference analysis of travel choices: the state of practice. Transportation, 21(2), 107-133.
Howard, D., & Dai, D. (2014, January). Public perceptions of self-driving cars: The case of Berkeley, California. In Transportation Research Board 93rd Annual Meeting (Vol. 14, No. 4502).
Hu, T. Y., Chen, L. W., Chen, I. I., Huang, Y. K., & Chiang, M. L. (2005). A new simulation-assignment model DynaTAIWAN for mixed traffic flows. In Proceedings of the 12th world congress on ITS, San Francisco, CA, USA (Vol. 3678).
IBM (2011; 2012; 2013; 2014; 2015). IBM Smarter Cities Challenge. From https://www.smartercitieschallenge.org/
IBM (2018). Smarter Cities - New cognitive approaches to long-standing challenges From https://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/smarter_cities/overview/
IEEE (2014). IEEE Smart Cities. From https://smartcities.ieee.org/
IEEE (2017). IEEE Smart Cities – What makes a city smart. From https://smartcities.ieee.org/images/files/pdf/IEEE_Smart_Cities-_Flyer_Nov_2017.pdf
IHS Markit (2016). Round up Of Internet Of Things Forecasts And Market Estimates, 2016. Forbes. From https://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2016/11/27/roundup-of-internet-of-things-forecasts-and-market-estimates-2016/#30d3dcab292d
ITU (2015). IMT Vision – Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2020 and beyond. From https://www.itu.int/dms_pubrec/itu-r/rec/m/R-REC-M.2083-0-201509-I!!PDF-E.pdf
ITU (2015). Workplan, timeline, process and deliverables for the future development of IMT. From https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2020/Documents/Anticipated-Time-Schedule.pdf
Jayakrishnan, R., Mahmassani, H.S., and Hu, T.Y. (1994), “DYNASMART: An Evaluation Tool for ATIS/ATMS in Urban Traffic Networks,” Transportation Research, Vol.2C, No.3, pp. 129-147.
Johnson, B. (2015). Disruptive mobility. Research Report, Barclays.
Jonathan, G. (2018). You can catch a self-driving taxi in 2018, if you're traveling to Phoenix, AZ. Techrepublic. From https://www.techrepublic.com/article/business-travelers-self-driving-waymo-service-will-be-available-in-phoenix-in-2018/
Kaiser, H. F. (1974). An index of factorial simplicity. Psychometrika, 39(1), 31-36.
Kala, R. (2016). On-road intelligent vehicles: Motion planning for intelligent transportation systems. Butterworth-Heinemann.
Kaur, K., & Rampersad, G. (2018). Trust in driverless cars: Investigating key factors influencing the adoption of driverless cars. Journal of Engineering and Technology Management, 48, 87-96.
Kim, J. H., Chung, J. H., & Kim, T. (2013). The effect of psychological traits on mode choice behaviour: An application to a new water transit system in Seoul, Korea. Transportation Planning and Technology, 36(6), 547-566.
Kondepudi, S. N., Ramanarayanan, V., Jain, A., Singh, G. N., Nitin Agarwal, N. K., Kumar, R., ... & Gemma, P. (2014). Smart sustainable cities analysis of definitions. The ITU-T focus group for smart sustainable cities.
Koppelman, F. S. (1975). Travel prediction with models of individual choice behavior (Doctoral dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).
KPMG (2018). 2018 Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index. Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler. From https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/tw/pdf/2018/03/KPMG-Autonomous-Vehicle-Readiness-Index.pdf
Krueger, R., Rashidi, T. H., & Rose, J. M. (2016). Preferences for shared autonomous vehicles. Transportation research part C: emerging technologies, 69, 343-355.
Lavieri, P. S., Garikapati, V. M., Bhat, C. R., Pendyala, R. M., Astroza, S., & Dias, F. F. (2017). Modeling individual preferences for ownership and sharing of autonomous vehicle technologies. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, (2665), 1-10.
Lee, J. W. (2018) Seoul Smart City Initiatives & Cases. Seaul digital foundation. From https://oascities.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Seoul-Smart-City-Initiatives-Cases-_Dr.-Jungwoo-Lee.pdf
Levin, M. W., Kockelman, K. M., Boyles, S. D., & Li, T. (2017). A general framework for modeling shared autonomous vehicles with dynamic network-loading and dynamic ride-sharing application. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 64, 373-383.
Lombardi, P., Giordano, S., Farouh, H., & Yousef, W. (2012). Modelling the smart city performance. Innovation: The European Journal of Social Science Research, 25(2), 137-149.
Louviere, J. J., & Hout, M. (1988). Analyzing decision making: Metric conjoint analysis (No. 67). Sage.
LTA (2017). Singapore Autonomous Vehicle Initiative. Land Transport Authority. From https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/managing-traffic-and-congestion/intelligent-transport-systems/savi.html
Mahmassani, H. S. (2016). 50th anniversary invited article—autonomous vehicles and connected vehicle systems: Flow and operations considerations. Transportation Science, 50(4), 1140-1162.
Mahmassani, H.S., Hu, T.Y., Peeta, S., and Ziliaskopoulos, A. (1994), Development and Testing of Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Simulation Procedures for ATIS/ATMS Applications, Technical Report DTFH61-90-C-00074-FG, Center for Transportation Research, The University of Texas at Austin.
Manville, C., Cochrane, G., Cave, J., Millard, J., Pederson, J. K., Thaarup, R. K., & Kotterink, B. (2014). Mapping smart cities in the EU.
Mayor of London (2018). Smarter London Together. From https://www.london.gov.uk/what-we-do/business-and-economy/supporting-londons-sectors/smart-london/smarter-london-together
MCity (2018). Mcity Driverless Shuttle. University of Michigan Office of Research. From https://mcity.umich.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/mcity-driverless-shuttle-case-study.pdf
Miller, G., & Spoolman, S. (2011). Living in the environment: principles, connections, and solutions. Nelson Education.
Nam, T., & Pardo, T. A. (2011, June). Conceptualizing smart city with dimensions of technology, people, and institutions. In Proceedings of the 12th annual international digital government research conference: digital government innovation in challenging times (pp. 282-291). ACM.
Naomi, T. (2017). Japan trials driverless cars in bid to keep rural elderly on the move. Reuters. From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-elderly-selfdriving/japan-trials-driverless-cars-in-bid-to-keep-rural-elderly-on-the-move-idUSKCN1BN0UQ
NCSL (2018). Autonomous Vehicles / Self-Driving Vehicles Enacted Legislation. National Conference of State Legislatures. From http://www.ncsl.org/research/transportation/autonomous-vehicles-self-driving-vehicles-enacted-legislation.aspx
Neckermann, L. (2017) Smart Cities, Smart Mobility (1st ed.). Troubador Publishing Ltd.
NHTSA (2015). Automated Vehicles for Safety. The United State, Department of Transportation, National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. From https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles-safety
nuTonomy (2016). From https://www.nutonomy.com/
Ofcom (2019). Update on 5G spectrum in the UK. From https://www.ofcom.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0021/97023/5G-update-08022017.pdf
OICA (2015). Motorization Rate 2015 – Worldwide. International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. From http://www.oica.net/category/vehicles-in-use/
Oxbotica (2018). From https://www.oxbotica.ai/news/
Roehrich, G. (2004). Consumer innovativeness: Concepts and measurements. Journal of business research, 57(6), 671-677.
Rubin, J. (2011). Choosing Transit: The Influence of Past Travel Behavior, Attitudes and Habits on Present Choices (Doctoral dissertation, UC Berkeley).
Rysavy Research and 5G Americas (2018). LTE to 5G: The global impact of wireless innovation. From http://www.5gamericas.org/files/4915/3479/4684/2018_5G_Americas_Rysavy_LTE_to_5G-_The_Global_Impact_of_Wireless_Innovation_final.pdf
SAE International (2014). Automated Driving – Levels of Driving Automation are Defined in New SAE International Standard J3016. Society of Automotive Engineers International From https://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/automated_driving.pdf
Schoettle, B., & Sivak, M. (2014). A survey of public opinion about autonomous and self-driving vehicles in the US, the UK, and Australia.
Shabanpour, R., Golshani, N., Shamshiripour, A., & Mohammadian, A. K. (2018). Eliciting preferences for adoption of fully automated vehicles using best-worst analysis. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies, 93, 463-478.
Shen, Y., Zhang, H., & Zhao, J. (2018). Integrating shared autonomous vehicle in public transportation system: A supply-side simulation of the first-mile service in Singapore. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 113, 125-136.
Sikora-Fernandez, D. (2018). Smarter cities in post-socialist country: Example of Poland. Cities, 78, 52-59.
Silva, B. N., Khan, M., & Han, K. (2018). Towards sustainable smart cities: A review of trends, architectures, components, and open challenges in smart cities. Sustainable Cities and Society, 38, 697-713.
Smart Columbus (2017; 2018). Smart Columbus. The city of Columbus. From https://smart.columbus.gov/home/
Smart Nation (2018). Smart Nation Singapore. The Prime Minister’s Office, Smart Nation and Digital Government Group (SNDGG). From https://www.smartnation.sg/
Smart Seoul (2015). From https://jamesgreography8f.weebly.com/smart-seoul.html
Stanley, W. (2018). Japan looks to launch driverless car system in Tokyo by 2020. Reuters. From https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-strategy/japan-looks-to-launch-driverless-car-system-in-tokyo-by-2020-idUSKCN1J00VN
Statista (2018). Number of passenger cars and commercial vehicles in use worldwide from 2006 to 2015. From https://www.statista.com/statistics/281134/number-of-vehicles-in-use-worldwide/
Taipei Smart City Project Management Office (2016). From https://smartcity.taipei/
Techopedia (2018). Definition - What does Smart City mean?. From https://www.techopedia.com/definition/31494/smart-city
Theoleyre, F., Watteyne, T., Bianchi, G., Tuna, G., Gungor, V. C., & Pang, A. C. (2015). Networking and communications for smart cities special issue editorial. Computer Communications, 58(0), 1-3.
U.S. DOT (2015). Smart City Challenge. The United State, Department of Transportation. From https://www.transportation.gov/smartcity
U.S. DOT (2017). Smart City Challenge - The Winner: Columbus, Ohio. The United State, Department of Transportation. From https://www.transportation.gov/smartcity/winner
UN. (2018). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2014 Revision. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. From https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html
Washburn, D., Sindhu, U., Balaouras, S., Dines, R. A., Hayes, N., & Nelson, L. E. (2009). Helping CIOs understand “smart city” initiatives. Growth, 17(2), 1-17.
Waymo (2018). From https://waymo.com/
Wenge, R., Zhang, X., Dave, C., Chao, L., & Hao, S. (2014). Smart city architecture: A technology guide for implementation and design challenges. China Communications, 11(3), 56-69.
Winter, K., Cats, O., Martens, K., & van Arem, B. (2017). A Stated-Choice Experiment on Mode Choice in an Era of Free-Floating Carsharing and Shared Autonomous Vehicles (No. 17-01321).
Yaqoob, I., Hashem, I. A. T., Mehmood, Y., Gani, A., Mokhtar, S., & Guizani, S. (2017). Enabling communication technologies for smart cities. IEEE Communications Magazine, 55(1), 112-120.
吳怡諄,「評估資通訊科技採用餘高齡者旅運行為之影響-以台南為例」,國立成功大學交通管理科學系碩士論文,民國一百零二年六月。
李奇,「敘述性偏好模式與顯示性偏好模式比較之研究」,國立成功大學交通管理科學系碩士論文,民國八十一年。
鄭永祥,「機車使用者轉乘大眾捷運系統個體選擇行為之研究」,國立交通大學土木研究所碩士論文,民國八十三年。
謝敏文、陳荔芬、王振玉、張伊芬、陳威志(民105年)。韓國 U-KOREA 智慧城市發展出國報告。台北市:國家發展委員會。
劉少山、唐潔、吳雙、李力耘 (2018)。無人駕駛真的來了:第一本從技術面深入的實作書(初版)臺北:佳魁資訊。
校內:2024-07-01公開