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研究生： 蔡政哲
Tsai, Cheng-che
論文名稱： Customer Retention Prediction Using LDF and Decision Tree for a Metal Company in Taiwan
Customer Retention Prediction Using LDF and Decision Tree for a Metal Company in Taiwan
指導教授： 吳植森
Wu, Chih-sen
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 管理學院 - 國際經營管理研究所碩士在職專班
Institute of International Management (IIMBA--Master)(on the job class)
論文出版年： 2007
畢業學年度： 95
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 82
外文關鍵詞： Decision Tree, Database Marketing, Independent Samples t-Test, Relationship Marketing, Customer Retention, Discriminant Analysis
相關次數： 點閱：113  下載：1 
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    • The category of this research could be defined as database marketing. That purpose is looking for what determinant shall responsible for customer staying and switching. A vast quantity of customer-related data from ERP is cited for analysis.
    It is described and identified by eleven predictors (or variables). We set up the certain period, Y2003 ~ Y2006, for selection of two samples from the population. The one is “All Customers”, the other is “Top 20 customers”. The customer will be separated as two groups; stayer and switcher.
    The discriminant analysis is used in order to find out the significant predictors for customer retention program. Those significant predictors is applied by independent sample-t test for demonstration the difference in two groups. It presents a linear equation for manager to predict customer churn according to the interaction with customer in a certain period.
    Finally, the significant variable is used by decision tree method. The purpose is to present managerial rules for manger to evaluate the performance of customer retention program time by time and take action to retain if any unusual result in a certain period.

    ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS…………………...I ABSTRACT……..………………………II TABLE OF CONTENTS………….III LIST OF TABLES…………V LIST OF FIGURES……….VII CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION................................1 1.1 Introduction........................................1 1.2 Research Procedure..................................2 1.3 Research Objectives.................................4 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW...........................5 2.1 Customer Relationship Management....................5 2.2 Relationship Marketing..............................9 2.3 Customer Retention.................................12 2.4 Customer Value.....................................14 2.5 Customer Value Dimensions and Factors..............19 2.6 Decision Tree of Data Mining Technologies..........22 CHPATER THREE THE DURABLE TITANIUM PRODUCT FIRM IN THE WORLD..................................................27 3.1 Definition of Titanium.............................27 3.2 Titanium Products and Manufacturer.................31 3.3 The Characteristics of Titanium Industry and supply chain..................................................33 3.4 The Introduction of the Target of This Survey......35 CHAPTER FOUR RESEARCH METHODOLOGY......................37 4.1 Instrument Design and Data Collection..............37 4.2 Target Population..................................37 4.3 Measures of Constructs.............................39 4.4 Data Analysis and Results..........................40 4.4.1 Discriminant Analysis.........................40 4.4.2 Independent-sample t-Test.....................48 4.4.3 Decision Tree.................................51 4.5 Summary............................................62 4.6 Limitation.........................................64 CHAPTER FIVE IMPLICATIONS AND DIRECTIONS FOR FUTURE RESEARCH...............................................66 REFERENCE..............................................70

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