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研究生: 古博而
Cubol, Joel
論文名稱: 利用產品生命週期分析連結國家間發展策略:以未來汽車產業的資源管理為例
Concerting Development Strategies of Nations Linked by a Product Life Cycle: An Example in Promotion of Future Vehicle Industries with Focus on Resource Management
指導教授: 福島康裕
Yasuhiro Fukushima
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 工學院 - 環境工程學系
Department of Environmental Engineering
論文出版年: 2013
畢業學年度: 101
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 84
中文關鍵詞: 電動車電池材料資源管理企業發展策略溫室氣體排放
外文關鍵詞: electric vehicles, materials for batteries, resource management, promotion strategy of an industry, Greenhouse gas emission
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  • 電動車和油電混合車在台灣是策略性的推廣產業之一,並且期待在未來的數十年間能夠提供國內、外市場零件及最終產品的市場,並促進台灣經濟。此種策略必須與資源開採國家的目標一致,以確保參與國家間的經濟及環境的永續發展。
    在本研究中,台灣在2060年鋰(Li)和鎳(Ni)的需求量,已根據國內引進電動汽車到國內的推廣計劃推估求得。這種新型的汽車產業會利用這些重要的金屬資源做為電池的主要成分,並計劃在金屬退出市場成為可回收資源時,創造一個台灣的金屬回收產業。
    藉由廢棄電池回收的參與以及鋰和鎳的回收效率,可求得為補足金屬需求量之回收以及採礦的分配情況。本研究中,將結合上述資訊與溫室氣體排放相關之訊息,提供台灣以及開採國家(保加利亞、菲律賓)建立技術與資源管理一致性的發展策略。
    隨著電動車量的增加,即使電動車發展計畫可改進電池上金屬強度的降低,金屬需求仍顯示緩慢成長至飽和的趨勢。有鑑於此以及廢金屬回收庫存量的上升趨勢,台灣在利用回收廢棄金屬於供應面的自給自足能力也提升了。然而該項策略,會使台灣產生更多的溫室氣體排放以及限制開採國家的供應量。這似乎有益於開採國家溫室氣體排放減量,但是於經濟方面卻無法達到永續經營。因此,為避免開採國家金屬產業受到台灣金屬回收產業建立的衝擊,建議這些國家可在下游加工和精煉產業鏈中,增加資源的經濟價值。
    只利用三個國家為例的發展策略探討,也許還不夠貼近於現實情況。在實際情況之下,這些國家會與更多國家有所互動,也不僅是單一技術與產品的連結。因此,建議未來的研究可以考量多國或是多項產品間面向,建立一個動態並貼近真實情況的模式。

    Electric and hybrid vehicle industry is one of those strategically promoted in Taiwan expected to provide domestic and international markets with parts and final products contributing to Taiwanese economy in the next decades. Such strategy must be in concert with strategies on the resource mining countries, assuring economic and environmental sustainability among the nations involved.
    In this study, Taiwan’s lithium (Li) and nickel (Ni) demands until 2060 are estimated in accordance to the promotion plans of the introduction of electric vehicles in the country. This new vehicle industry would utilize these critical metal resources as key components of the batteries. When these metals exit from the market as reusable resource, it is aimed to create a metal recycling industry in Taiwan.
    Given the recycling participation of the disposed batteries and the efficiency to recover nickel and lithium, the ultimate potential in recycled metal supply and the mined metals to supplement the shortage to the metal demand can be estimated. These information together with the associated GHG emission are the key inputs to the concerted roadmaps of technological and resource management strategies of Taiwan and the mining countries – Bolivia and the Philippines – that is proposed in this study.
    With the increasing number of EVs, although this development plan is coupled with the improvement in battery technology in terms of decreasing the metal intensity, the projection still shows an increasing to slowly saturating metal demands. Because of this, disposed metal stocks accumulation in Taiwan has also increasing trend, making them capable of becoming self-sufficient in supplying its own demand by recycling these disposed metal stocks. This, however, induces more GHG emission from Taiwan and limits the supply share of mining countries. This may sound beneficial in terms of minimizing GHG emission in mining countries; however, it poses challenges in economic aspects of sustainability. If the mining countries cannot achieve economic sustainability, the product life cycle cannot be sustainable. Hence, it is suggested that while the demand from the mining countries is still not suppressed by Taiwan’s recycling industry, they can establish other industry such as downstream processing and refining to increase the economic value of their resource.
    The demonstrated example of concerting development strategies of the three stakeholders may not be, however, realistic enough. In reality, these countries interact to more countries and not only linked by one technology or product. Thus, it is recommended for future studies to add more stakeholders and more products to link them to make the model more dynamic and more realistic.

    Abstract i 中文摘要 iii Acknowledgement iv Table of Contents vi Figure Index ix Table Index xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1Preface 1 1.1.1Motivation 1 1.1.2 The stakeholders, their Strategies, and the Linkage 1 1.1.3 The Domino Effect 4 1.2Scope and Overall Limitations of the Study 6 1.3 Highlights and Objectives of the Study 7 Chapter 2 Literature Review 9 2.1 Different Type of Electric Vehicles (EV) 9 2.1.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEV) 9 2.1.2 Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) 9 2.1.3 Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) 10 2.2 Different Battery Technologies for EVs 10 2.2.1 Nickel Metal Hydride (NiMH) 11 2.2.2 Lithium-ion 11 2.2.3 Metal Intensity and Energy Capacity 12 2.3 Taiwan Electric Vehicle (EV) Industry Promotion Goals 14 2.4 Philippine Nickel Mining Industry Status 15 2.5 Bolivia Lithium Mining Industry Status 15 2.6 Number of Cars Estimation Methods 16 2.6.1 Vehicle Ownership Function 17 2.6.2 Weibull Distribution Function 17 2.7 Life Cycle Considerations and GHG Emission Inventories 19 2.7.1 GHG Emission of Nickel Mining 19 2.7.2 GHG Emission of Li Mining 21 2.7.3 GHG Emission of Downstream Processing 22 2.7.4 GHG Emission of Recycling 22 2.8 Battery Recycling Participation Rate and Efficiency 23 Chapter 3 Methodology 24 3.1 Overall Framework 24 3.2 Number of Car Estimation (in-use, disposed, new) 26 3.3 Scenario Setting and Demand Estimation 28 3.3.1 Vehicle Promotion Target and EV Demand Estimation 28 3.3.2 Battery Technology Improvement and Total Metal Demand Calculation 29 3.4 Metal Supply Allocation 31 3.5 Life Cycle Considerations and GHG Emission Calculation 34 3.6 Roadmap Development 37 Chapter 4 Results and Discussion 39 4.1 Number of Cars Projection and Breakdown 39 4.2 Total Metal Demand 41 4.3 Improvement on Battery’s Metal Intensity, Ii, 42 4.4 Improvement on Recycling System and Technology 42 4.5 Metal Supply Allocation 44 4.6 Environmental Impact Assessment 47 4.6.1 GHG Emission from Mining, Refining, and Recycling Ni 49 4.6.2 GHG Emission from Mining and Recycling Li 50 4.7 Proposed Roadmap and Concerted Strategies of Stakeholders 51 4.7.1 Taiwan’s EV and Recycling Industry concerted with Metal Resource Management of Bolivia and the Philippines 51 4.7.2 Improvement on Battery Technology in Taiwan 52 4.7.3 The Philippines Downstream Industry 52 Chapter 5 Other Scenario 55 5.1 Government Plan vs. Ten-year Delay 55 5.1.1 Number of Cars and Breakdown Comparison 57 5.1.2 Metal Demand Comparison 58 5.1.3 Metal Supply Allocation Comparison 59 5.1.4 GHG Emission Comparison 60 Chapter 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 62 References 66 Appendix 70 A. Comparison of Simulated and Actual Number of in-use Cars 70 B. Number of Discarded Cars and Lifetime Distribution 74 C. Simulation of Number of New Cars 75 D. Simulation of Metal Demand and Disposed 78 E. Simulation of Metal Supply Allocation 80 F. Simulation of GHG Emission 82 G. Ten-year Delay Scenario Roadmap 84

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