近年來氣候變遷加劇，極端降雨事件頻傳，洪患成為現今面臨重要課題之一。依據減少災害風險辦公室 (UNISDR)及國際災害資料庫(EM-DAT)報告綜合顯示，自然災害中與水相關之災害機率高達四成之多，洪災被視為全球所有自然災害中代價最高且最具破壞性。尤其於建成地飽和之高密度城市，氣候變遷下產生的脆弱性，創造韌性耐災環境與提升社會經濟效益已成為永續發展之關鍵議題。然而，許多研究陸續指出「氣候變遷」及「都市發展」現象可能會改變洪水的嚴重性，並影響洪水管理的決策過程，且兩者不同驅動力影響會反映出長期與短期的關係，加上既有研究多為混合或單一簡化討論都市發展或氣候變遷可能對洪災的影響。未來都市化及氣候變遷引發的洪水衝突將更為顯著，將嚴重影響環境及社會發展，需迫切瞭解兩者分別產生的洪災影響區位，及探討具減災效能之土地政策情境，試圖釐清並提供既有政策相關防洪之建議。
鑑於上述，本研究以臺北市作為實證範圍，借鑒過去文獻中的缺口與相關研究方法，建立研究的設計框架與適用模型。本研究將建置土地利用變遷模型及淹水模擬之模型。土地利用模型分別利用2006年、2015年及2021年檢定及驗證模型，以校準過程提高模型可信度及解釋力，接續得以模擬目標年期2050年之土地利用情形。淹水模擬則中考慮不同土地利用情境，情境設定中同步考慮地方現行推動政策(防災型都市更新)，將其納入其中一種情境設定。模擬年期共分為1995年、2021年、2050年情境一及2050年情境二，透過上述兩者模型交叉分析與疊圖討論，以反映不同時期之淹水區位，藉此釐清氣候變遷與都市發展不同驅動力對洪災影響之區位差異，並比較不同土地利用情境於未來極端氣候下(RCP8.5氣候情境)產生的洪災風險分析。
研究成果顯示，不同驅動力確實反映不同之影響關係。都市發展淹水區位為不可知且擴散式影響，初判為因發展過程中環境錯亂影響，淹水隨之有多種變化的可能性；而氣候變遷影響區位則為集中式影響，僅於原脆弱度相對低的地區受到更嚴重的影響，其他地區無太大的變化。然而，情境模擬比較上，研究範圍各行政區淹水深度面積及區位，於情境二(防災都更實施完成)皆比情境一(依循過去)呈現減少趨勢，表示以最理想狀態進行，將符合防災都更範圍轉為綠地使用，能達到預期之減災成效。藉由本研究探討釐清不同驅動力影響及納入政策情境模擬淹水變化，更準確評估潛在洪災風險影響程度與區位，以提供未來都市發展政策於不同影響區域制定對應策略之參考。

The impact of climate change on urban areas has become increasingly severe in recent years. However, previous studies have consistently demonstrated that the driving forces behind flooding include both "climate change" and "urban development." Often, discussions in the past have mixed or simplified these factors, potentially overlooking the complex impacts on flooding. However, these two driving forces actually reflect both long-term and short-term effects on flooding. Therefore, it is necessary to clarify and propose different flood prevention strategies in response to these influences.
This study selects Taipei City as the empirical scope and establishes two major models: a land-use change model and a flood simulation model. Firstly, both models undergo a calibration process to enhance their credibility and explanatory power. Furthermore, after setting different scenarios, the target year for simulating the future is established as 2050. Through the cross-analysis and overlay of the aforementioned models, along with discussions using stacked charts, the study aims to reflect the flooded areas in different time periods. This approach clarifies the spatial differences in the impact of flood disasters resulting from the different driving forces of climate change and urban development. Additionally, the study compares the flood risk analysis under different land-use scenarios in the context of future extreme climate conditions.
The research results indicate that flood-prone areas in urban development are unpredictable and exhibit diffuse impacts, preliminarily attributed to environmental chaos during the development process, leading to various potential flooding scenarios. The impact of climate change is concentrated, affecting only the originally vulnerable areas more severely, with minimal changes in other regions. However, scenario simulations show that after the implementation of disaster-resilient urban redevelopment, there is a decreasing trend in both the depth and locations of flooding across administrative districts, achieving the anticipated disaster reduction effects. In conclusion, the study results can serve as a reference for future urban development policy formulation, enabling a more accurate assessment of potential flood risks and the development of region-specific strategies.

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