近年來，與顧客建立關係之趨勢在行銷領域中持續成長，並且行銷人員已經對顧客保留之議題越來越感興趣，許多企業皆深深體會到保留現有顧客對公司的利益與好處，特別是成本與利潤上的優勢，因此本研究亦專注於顧客保留模型之探討，然而與過去研究不同的是，有別於多數學者皆單純以滿意度衡量顧客是否延續關係之決定，本研究亦將顧客對未來使用程度之預期（Expected Future Usage）與顧客對未來可能遺憾之預期（Anticipated Regret）納入傳統的顧客保留模型中，並且我們亦關注此預期因素是否能在單一時間點下獲得良好的解釋，抑或有時間效果之存在，導致它們對顧客保留之影響在長時間下方能顯著；綜上所述，本研究乃提出完整的跨期顧客保留模型，該模型是由兩組不同時期的滿意度、預期未來使用與預期遺憾對顧客保留之關係所組成，並且亦透過長時間下的結轉效果連結不同時期的相同構面，我們可用以觀測長時間下顧客的態度與行為意圖如何演進，並且亦可幫助管理者發展出能使顧客保留率最大的最適行銷計畫。為了驗證此模型，本研究透過兩階段問卷之發放取得大專院校語言中心學習者的縱斷面資料，並且我們以「線性結構關係模式」和「階層式迴歸」作為本研究的主要分析方法，研究結果發現（1）當顧客處於跨時期交換關係時，隨著時間演進滿意度對顧客保留的正向影響會減弱；取而代之的是，預期未來使用與預期遺憾對顧客保留的正向影響會增強（2）當顧客處於跨時期交換關係時，當期的滿意度、預期未來使用、預期遺憾與顧客保留皆會影響下一期的相同構面，亦即此跨期顧客保留模型確實有時間效果之存在（3）長時間下顧客當期對特定產品或服務之評價與顧客未來是否延續關係之決定間將受到多個變數之中介。最後，本研究亦根據上述結論分別探討其對學術領域與實務領域之貢獻，進一步地使後續研究者與行銷人員皆能對此跨期顧客保留模型之應用有深入之瞭解。

The trend in marketing toward building relationships with customers continues to grow, and marketers have become increasingly interested in retaining customers over the long run. Not surprisingly, many practical and theoretical models of customer retention have explored satisfaction as a key determinant in customers’ decision to keep or drop a given product or service relationship. In this research, we seek to advance the notion that when deciding whether to continue a product or service relationship, customers not only consider current and past evaluations of the firms’ performance（e.g., overall satisfaction, service quality, perceived quality）but also incorporate future considerations regarding the service. We also believe these relationships are potentially complex and dynamic and that the drivers of customer retention change and evolve over time. Accordingly, we propose an intertemporal model of customer retention to examine two customer-anticipated future states—the customers’ anticipation of future benefits（modeled as expected future usage）and the customers’ anticipation of future regret（modeled as anticipated regret）—and demonstrate the impact of these factors, over and above perceptions of satisfaction, on customers’ keep or drop decision over time. Using a longitudinal study of language learner, we find that expected future usage and anticipated regret will influence this decision over time. Therefore, we suggest marketer of today that understanding and managing these future-focused considerations is critical to successful dynamic customer relationship management.

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