台灣南部地區由於降雨時間分布不均且地勢陡峭、河川湍急，故須水庫調節農、工業及民生用水需求，因此如何有效運用水庫供水以滿足各方需求是水資源管理的一項重要議題。目前水庫操作多依循營運規線(rule curve)，以評估不同時期水庫蓄水量之多寡，當蓄水量低時，會以減少供水的方式降低未來發生嚴重缺水的機會。然而，現有水庫營運規線因個數較少而產生階梯式之限水方式、或是早期制定的規線無法掌握目前極端的水文狀況等因素影響，使得現有營運規線在乾旱期間的供水效率不佳。為提升現有水庫營運規線於乾旱期間的供水效率，本研究考慮三種限水因子，包括營運規線、供水係數以及蓄水量模糊化，並組合不同限水因子個數成七個優選模式，欲藉由不同優選模式以探討限水因子對水庫缺水之影響，並與原操作規線之營運結果比較。
本文以位於台灣南部地區之南化水庫為例，以多準則決策方式整合6個缺水指標(包括單旬最大缺水率、風險度、總缺水率、缺水事件頻率、相鄰二旬最大缺水率差值、缺水時期平均缺水量)為優選模式目標函數，配合遺傳演算法尋求最佳解，並與現況營運比較。分析結果顯示，7個優選模式之供水效率均優於現行規線，而調整之限水因子個數越多效果越佳，以本文將不同之缺水指標整合成一目標函數作為快速評估模式優劣之依據，整合目標函數愈大代表整體供水效率愈佳，原操作規線之整合目標函數為0.48，包含一個限水因子的優選模式之整合目標函數介於0.54至0.61之間，而兩個限水因子的優選模式則介於0.60至0.65之間，最佳優選模式為三個限水因子，其整合目標函數值為0.68。

Southern Taiwan had suffered from water deficits due to uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall. Reservoirs are important facilities to regulate fluctuating streamflow to offer stable water supplies in this region. Water releases from reservoirs are often guided by rule curves in Taiwan for assessing storage in various seasons. Water rationing is implemented to conserve water for future use in order to reduce possibilities of high deficits when water below certain level. However, finite rule curves leading to step-wise hedging rules as well as pre-defined rules curves insufficient to meet current hydrologic conditions are major reasons for low water-supply efficiency. To improve reservoir performance during droughts, we consider three hedging factors including rule curves, rationing factors and fuzziness in this study. Seven models which combined different hedging factors are considered to construct optimal operating rules during droughts for Nanhua Reservoir located in southern Taiwan. A total of 6 water-shortage indices (maximum 10-day shortage ratio, risk, total shortage ratio, event frequency, maximum shortage-ratio difference between two successive periods, average water-shortage per shortage period) are integrated into a single overall objective to derive the optimal operating rule using multi-criteria decision making. The results indicate that all models have better performance than the current operation. The best overall performance of 0.679 is achieved by optimizing three hedging factors and results in the most compromising alternative among inconsistent shortage indices.

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