近年來，由於全球暖化的影響，原本處於冰封狀態的北極航線因而開通。北極航線吸引了全球航運業的關注，西北航道(Northwest Passage)成為東北美、和東北亞之間潛在的航線，越來越多的船舶航行通過北極地區。然而，北極航運活動增加的後果是，北極地區的溫室氣體(Greenhouse Gas)與黑碳(Black carbon)排放量隨之增加，由航運產生的黑碳排放，正從三個方面威脅北極地區，造成氣候變遷、破壞自然生態環境、危害人類健康。為減少北極航運的黑碳(Black Carbon)排放，國際海事組織(International Maritime Organization)自2017年起開始討論北極重油禁令(Arctic HFO Ban)，並達成共識，於2024年7月1日起，禁止船舶在北極水域使用重質燃油(Heavy Fuel Oil)作為船用燃料。本研究選定散裝貨船為研究標的，利用船舶汙染物排放模型(Ship Pollutant Emission Model)，分析2019年至2023年西北航道散裝貨船的二氧化碳(carbon dioxide)、硫氧化物(sulfur oxide)與黑碳(Black Carbon)排放量，以及評估至航商使用甲醇(Methanol)和液化天然氣(Liquefied Natural Gas)燃料之環境與經濟效益。
研究結果顯示，(1)基礎情境(BAU)下，航商使用極低硫燃油(Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil)，並搭配載重噸較大之船型，有助於分攤碳排放，但仍不足以達成國際海事組織(IMO)設定之短期減碳目標。(2)情境一，航商改以甲醇(Methanol)作為船用燃料，可將二氧化碳排放量降低至2,380.95噸，且不產生硫氧化物與黑碳之排放，從環境效益的角度來看，航商使用甲醇(Methanol)燃料，為最環保之選擇方案，然而此選擇將使燃油成本增加約35.33%。(3)情境二，航商使用液化天然氣(LNG)燃料散裝貨船，可將二氧化碳排放量降低約29.34%；硫氧化物排放量減少約99.74%；黑碳排放量降低約96.56%，且液化天然氣(LNG)燃料展現良好的燃燒效率，液化天然氣(LNG)燃料船舶於相同航程中所需燃料較少，這使燃油成本之增加幅度，相比於基礎情境(BAU)，僅高2.68%，顯示出液化天然氣(LNG)燃料是一項具經濟可行性的減排選擇。本研究結果表明，在北極重油禁令(Arctic HFO Ban)實施下，航商若欲兼顧環境責任與經濟競爭力，液化天然氣(LNG)燃料目前為較具推廣潛力之過渡選擇；甲醇(Methanol)燃料則需進一步改善能量效率及配套財務補貼，以加速商業化之應用。

In recent years, due to the impact of global warming, the Arctic shipping routes that were originally frozen have been opened. The Arctic shipping routes have attracted the attention of global shipping companies. The Northwest Passage has become a potential route between Northeast America and Northeast Asia. More and more ships are sailing through the Arctic waters. However, the increased shipping activity in the Arctic has led to higher emissions of greenhouse gases and black carbon. Black carbon emissions produced by shipping are threatening the Arctic region from three aspects, causing climate change, damaging the natural ecological environment, endangering human health. To reduce black carbon emissions from Arctic shipping, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) began discussing the Arctic Heavy Fuel Oil ban in 2017. Subsequently, the IMO has reached a consensus to prohibit ships from using heavy fuel oil as marine fuel in Arctic waters starting July 1, 2024. This study focuses on bulk carriers. Using the Ship Pollutant Emission Model, this study quantifies the carbon dioxide, sulfur oxide and black carbon emissions of bulk carriers in the Northwest Passage from 2019 to 2023. It also assesses the environmental and economic benefits of using Methanol and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) on bulk carriers sailing in the Northwest Passage.
The research findings indicate that: (1) Under the BAU scenario, although the use of Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) combined with larger vessel sizes helps to distribute carbon emissions, it remains insufficient to achieve the short-term carbon reduction targets set by the IMO. (2) In Scenario 1, switching to methanol as a marine fuel can reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 2,380.95 tons and eliminate sulfur oxide and black carbon emissions, making it the most environmentally friendly option from a sustainability perspective. However, this strategy would increase fuel costs by approximately 35.33%. (3) In Scenario 2, using LNG-fueled bulk carriers could reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 29.34%, sulfur oxide emissions by 99.74%, and black carbon emissions by 96.56%. In addition, LNG exhibits superior combustion efficiency, requiring less fuel consumption per voyage, resulting in only a 2.68% increase in fuel costs compared to the BAU scenario, highlighting LNG as a more economically viable emission reduction option. The results of this study demonstrate that under the implementation of the Arctic HFO Ban, LNG currently presents a more practical transitional alternative for shipping companies seeking to balance environmental responsibility with economic competitiveness. In contrast, methanol will require further improvements in energy efficiency or the introduction of financial support mechanisms to accelerate its commercial viability.

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